Sjankerd

Trying to look at if this would be a good bluff yes or no.
First notes: pre could be played as a call. flop could probably be played as more selective and use bigger bet because SB has more connectivity on this board and has all sets?

Now lets look at the river.
are we low in our range? ++
are we blocking value? -- (i think we are not blocking any value here)
are we unblocking folds? +/- (we are blocking some Aclub hands, but unblocking his medium hands
villian overfolding? + (its a unknown player, and if its a unkown player i will give a + because people are generally overfolding

So i end up with a + and i can bluff this hand. Do u guys agree with this?

And then we need to look at JoeAdams his point. Which size is villian gonna struggle the most with.

Thanks for the thoughts JoeAdams1 Shaun Pauwels .
Last sessions I started with a simple checklist when to bluff:
- am I low in my range?
- blocking calling range?
- unblocking calling range?
- are we repping? with this one i need your help. how can i make this simple? Which question can i ask here:
Does river bring new FE?
Do I have RA at showdown?

In EV language:
When we are indifferent: X = 0 EV
The following can make a bluff + or - EV:
blocking call range = + EV
blocking fold range = - EV
villian overfolding = +EV (this should be mostly the case because as shaun pauwels mentioned most people are risk averse)

Hi henry just a little thought. Be carefull about monetary goals. This can make u frustrated if things are not going so well. Try to keep your goals small and focus on create a system to improve instead of focus on the six figures. Process over Outcome.

Good question. I dont have the answer but i try to help. Because SB is opening less hands, we have less Fold Equity. This means we want to be less polar. For example in my ranges I 3bet 50% of A5o-A2o. I think we can stop 3betting these hands. Because of less Fold Equity I guess we want to be more linear. But im not sure if we want to put the A5o-A2o stuff in our call range now or fold range.

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Learning a couple things here when reading your comments.
First i have to tell u i was using GTO Wizard, they have pre made ranges. And they solve with 3 sizings on the flop. I believe its possible to look at the EV differences on sizings, so need to look deeper in it.

ULpiano/Maco: I think u are right my exact AQ was checking and the other ones that where blocking other suits where betting slightly more. And maybe i misread the turn a little bit, so we need to check more.

I will post more posts like this, and see how i can simplify things.

Yea agree with u now. The way I play this hand is a little bit too random. Thanks for the input Warrior.

Great comments from all of u. I feel like Im learning a million things in this hand. Thanks and see u on the next hand.

Excellent post. Love the lecture. A lot of things u said is true. Right now my level of playing is indeed more in terms of one street game. My thought process is now more like: Does this hand want to bet on flop? Yes because i want some protection and he can still have worse hands that he X/R me with. But i didnt think about that he can put a lot of pressure on future streets after his X/R. Dont worry i will not stop value betting, but i will choose more selective which Jx i want to stab, and which one i want to x behind. And player type is important, against this guy i need to balance X and stab. Against someone who doesnt defend his X range enough, i can bet almost everything of my range.

Great outlined post again. Now u say it, he indeed can bet all of his range on flop. A thought of mine was that he already would barrel his bluffs on the turn, or is this not really a thing because the A is better for my range?

yea agree. The FE is to low. I was thinking he should shove his Kx to get calls from my PP. But the SPR gives my very low FE. He ended up calling with ATo.

I think in theory this is indeed a call, because of the polarness of villian this combo is better then 22 and overpairs. Worst case scenario he has 16 value combos with all 8jo and 86s. Call if villian has around 13 bluffcombos. He only has to do it with Q8o. I think this is possible so i would call.

Thanks for your post. I agree, i should not 4b this hand so deep, especially when i dont know a lot about playing deep. But still a cool hand to think about and learned something from it.

Thanks maco. Im going to implement simple postflop in this spot. If villian is unknown i will propably use the same concept as calling flop, bet with the backdoor low pp, and check without. If i have info im exploiting and using 100% bets or checks.

I went in my database to look at some of the stuff u said.
Filters: Opened 22-55 on BTN, Could 4bet
The Actuallly winrate = -270 and the EV winrate = 220 but only on 105 hands. when I folded (63 times) winrate = -240. When i called (42 times) winrate =-232 (took the EV number). So without knowing the right postflop theory, I still have a better winrate when i call the 3bet. i think when i use the simple postflop strategy like Maco and u told me in the hand above, call with the right blocker i will make more money in this spot.

Is there also a simple postflopstragey when they check to us? For example we have 55 and villian is checking on us on K72r. Do we X,bet small? What about other boards?

Do u want to share your stats on this spot, so i can compare? Or do u want to keep your stats private? Anyway thanks again, already learned a lot to look at this.

Amazing post. I will look into my HM2 and post the stats tommorow to see how im doing in these spots. Thanks for the help and well explained posts.

Villian potentially has only 3 natural bluffs here the AQo with the A heart. AJo with heart he already folds pre. His raise contains around 10 combos for value here (i count all 77 and some flushes. So it comes down if he is raising his Qq jj tt for protection, not sure if he is doing this, or should do this.

Inresting spot. U hit the flop more then him, so he could range check here because he doesnt have so much jj tt as u. Because of your nut advantage u could start to bluff this on the turn, to let him fold some aq and ak.