ShovingHereIsOK

Hey, Akira.

 Do you think the value bet on the river in the KK vs 66 hand is a must ? I mean first as you said he polarises his range a lot and even maybe to more bluffs (if we don't have any information on the player ) I guess maybe 80% or more will call here with the set or the overpair and there will be some raises with them but that means they should really expect you to have a strong hand that you would call this raise. You said that you could call this raise with AQ and AK but is this really a good idea ?  In this stage of the tournament and probably with the idea of almost always be double barreled on the turn out of position. When he checks on the turn you said that you are almost sure you have the best hand I agree with you but I could add that he could check with the pair of jacks that he could raise the flop and now with set.

 When you bet on the flop with what hands you expect him to call? I mean does he really have so many 10/x in his range compared to the bluffs that if you check you could give him a chance to do something? I mean yes probably he would bet all his bluffs on the turn but he could also just give you credit for calling this raise on the flop but when you check again on the river you would probably make your hand weak enough for a guy who bluffed this flop to bluff again, do you think so? Do you think a normal player would raise this flop with a pair of 10s only with the idea of protecting it on this flop ? I don't really see any other point in raising with a 10 there. Also of course if he has set of jacks as you said you can't fold on a shove on the river if you bet so a check could also protect you from this eventhough it's less likely for him to have JJ. Maybe there is some math to do here but I would like to see what do you think.

Thank you. Yes I really would have to include a timestamp in videos that are 8 months old :D I am sorry.

Hey, Nick, I have a question. At the begining he shoves with like 15 BB and you fold pocket 2s. You had like 40 BB why did you fold ?

Thank you for the answer, Nick.

 I can't really argue with what you wrote, I can only try to see the things from your side of view since we play on so much different levels and you have more experience.

 First I want to say that I said It would be better if we look a bit more psychologically not entirely and I agree with you that the math is the most important thing. I have always been studing in math schools so I don't think it is boring and I think it is great that most of the people think that way because if I use it properly versus them I can't loose. Proper math is never wrong but to do it you need the proper range of hands in the situation and you can get that either by using psychology right or have 1000 hands in HM of villain in every possible situation and see the numbers. Maybe option one is more possible which makes psychology the most important thing but this is a circle and there is not right answer to that really long discussion.

 Maybe I am good in analysing the spots using math and not so good psychology but I lack in being able to take the right decisions in the moment of the play which I don't know how to correct. I tried some things to solve this problem but I don't know if I just lose focus or it is something else.

 Last thing that came up to my mind when I read your answer was do you think if he is thinking on level 1 he knows about the ICM ? But even if he doesn't I guess it's something that comes up naturally since everyone knows that nobody wants to lose all chips easily when there are 3 more people with the same stack sizes.

Hi, Nick,

 First I want to say nice video and I am sad you will not make more essential videos.

 About the hand don't you think you could look at the hand a bit more psychologically I mean I think maybe that way it is more likely to find the answer in this hand. You said at the beginning you expect him to bluff less than an average NL player, let's say that is assumption N 1.

 But he opens 60% of the hands so he is aggressive but what do you think he thinks about you? Did you 3bet him a lot? I mean are you sure he will open 60% at this moment. If he wants to pressure of course he will and he is also a cash game player which probably means he feels very comfortable postflop. Also he is massive chip leader so I guess 60% is ok if he doesn't think you are really good player and you will backfire often.

 Ok you defend probably with very wide range here vs a guy who opens 60% almost 30 BB deep and obviously you are looking to get in a good spot when there are 3 more ~25-30 BB stacks and you want to have some edge over them. He cbets on the flop and you said that he almost never expect you to have a K here because if he did he would cbet the turn also wouldn't he? When he checks back the turn I think he thinks you hit that flop and you never fold on a bet and if he doesn't think you have air here you have at least a pair + gutshot or maybe some Ax which is the only think you probably will fold here if he barrels. So he thinks you hit that flop and let's make this assumption N 2.

 On the river you check third time. This makes your range to look very weak or you just want not to have big pot when there are 3 more familiar stacks. Do you think if he is pure bluffing he would bet with this size? I think no. First because 1/3 of the pot is just too small to make a guy who you think hit that flop to fold isn't it? Second this a bit more than 400k bet would not hurt your stack so much and you could call lighter than usual because you will still have more than 20 BB to play. And third I don't think the chip leader is the guy who looks for "cheap bluffs" in this situation I think if he is a cash player and he thinks you are weak he would bet maybe a bit more than 500k because that would look like a bet which could make a guy who hit that flop to fold. So he probably never bluffs with this bet size and let's make this assumption N 3.

 Even if he is bluffing I think it is better just to let it go because he could bluff with the best hand like low pairs or A highs and maybe you can look for better spots on the final table. Calling one bet on the flop was ok you got to the river and if you hit your pair you would have really a value hand but I think that's it. I don't think you have to look for hero calls like this if you don't have stone cold reads. Yes math is always right but with that said and the 3 assumptions I think you have to fold and look for better spots.

Thank you very much for the responce. I am really glad that you answered because you know I play like 10$ tournaments in Stars at the moment I have the bankroll to go for the bigger stakes but I really want to grind them up not just jump to the 100$ tournaments. That's why I joined this comunity because I am looking for some kind of a mentor who will help me do that. Because I know I could probably do it by myself because as my last post shows I can do stuff that need hard work but it's just a bit hard to do nowadays mainly because there is so much going on and I can't know if I am going in the right direction or not... really need someone to guide me up, teach me new things and etc. I will be very happy if you help me with this.

I agree with you about that the EV of folding here is 0 but my thought was like this "If we always play this hand here we will have to put at least 100 000 in it so if we don't play it we win these 100 000 that we put in in every situation". Yes if we fold is 0 EV really I googled and read about that but if we think that there is just a better stituation than this +EV call which is +1.5-6 BB I guess it's better just to wait and save those chips. Of course this is another long topic but I guess with 11 BB we don't have much of a choise when those +1.5-6 BB are like more than 10% of our stack.

Also this +EV call can be easy countered if the raiser do a bigger raise. I think the times of the 2x BB raise will soon be over when everyone finds out about this.

P.S. I saw I made a mistake in the calling option I didn't count his cbet which is like 1/3 of the pot so if you call you win even more like ~20% more than I said so it's like 180 000 everytime you call and he makes cbet.

 Hey, Nick. I know this is an old video and prob you have answered yourself this question but I was very interested to do the math here and see what happens. I will be glad if you answer me what you think and what you have decided is the right thing to do because I know you prob have made this decision before 10 months.
 
 I am new to this comunity and I will be happy if you help me out.

 Ok. Now let's start with this the following thoughts are only based on pure math that means I decided your reads on the opponent are 100% true and the psychology here is not a parameter.

 Ok you say that he is probably opening very wide range and you even are ahead of this range here which is a bit too pretty wide to say with K9 os but as I said the psychology is not a factor.
 So first if we push here with K9os and he is opening with like 40% of his hands (which is still not wide enough for you to be ahead of but I still think it is ok) You have 11BB and he is opening wide => you still have a good amount of FE. He is a good player and I guess he knows you are a good player too (I dont know if you know eachother) so that means he will call a bit more wider range cuz if you push he needs 33% call which means he is commited but still I think if he is opening wide enough he will fold some hands.
 As I did the ranges he should fold like a bit more than 12% of the time with the simple EV math you win 91017 chips every time you shove here which is like little less than 10% of your stack. Also if he never folds and calls with his entire opening range your shove (which I dont think is true)
you are wining 50600 chips which is like 5% of your stack.
 

 Now the interesting part if you just call and see a flop. You say you have to win 1 on every 4 games for this to be +EV but you have to see that this is +EV if you get to the river not only the flop so your thought should be "I should shove more than 1 on every 4 flops to be +EV". I assume you are going with every pair and every gutshot (if I am wrong you have to tell me) so there are 117 600 different flops you hit your pair on 38% of the flops on 2% of the flops you will have a gutshot draw (it's less then 2% but I am taking 2% cuz sometimes you will hit the straight right away). So you are getting your money in 40% of the flop which is very good.

 But now is the hard part let's assume that he is always making this small cbet with his entire 40% opening range.In the 38% part when you have a pair he will continue with like 60% of his range if we assume that he is folding some Ace highs and also if he does that he thinks you prob have piece of this board so he will fold pairs like 2s 3s 4s and maybe 5s.Here is getting really dirty. You will win 70% of the time on boards with Kings and 61% of the time on boards with 9s.But that's without taking any other card as factor so I will take a little less than the middle of these 2 numbers so you will win 63% of the time. So you are winning 207084 chips everytime you shove your stack in these 38% of the time.

 In the 2% part with your gutshot draws he will continue with like 75% of his range which means you will win in ~40% of the time. You win 2900 chips in this 2% of the time :D

 And you are loosing 100 000 in the 60% of the situations that the board is not good.

 In the end you win 150 000 everytime you call here and even if my math is not exactly right maybe it could have like +/- 10 - 15k difference but it's still way better then just shoving.

 I am not sure about folding because if you fold you win 100000 so folding is not bad option too. (if that is correct I'm not sure if it is count like that "if you fold here you win 100 000 ").

I hope you will read that and answer me what you think about it. Also I am a bit lazy to do the math but with 10/9 here the calling will be even greater since you will have a lot more gutshots to go with. Also the key here I think is the ranges and does he really have a bit more than 12% FE because if you think he has more than this shoving is not bad also.

I really hope you answer me, thank you.

I would just r/f if they are not flatting alot with A4o here. I mean even if they are calling with like 6% of their range (which is rly small range but let's say the bubble is a factor here) you will be called in 18% of the time most of the time with like 33% eq. Eventhough you will win 82% 1500 chips and considering the math I did you should win like 600 chips everytime you do this shove here so it's +EV but that's like less then 3% of your stack and I think the risk you are taking is just too big for +3% of your stack. Of course it's all your decision :)

Well I don't think so. I mean I can really easy fold on the turn but I explained what I thought through the hand and that's why I am asking here you- the guys with expirience on the different BI levels. I know I have to be very aware with A9s but I still think It's ok to open from this spot since we get a lot of guys calling with anytype of broadways which we can take value from. Still you have to be good at the postflop play to do this in the right way but I am trying to learn.

Thank you for your responce. It looks like I was very wrong.