Shortooth

Hi,

Generally speaking, I think that the nut flush is not even a part of his range here. If the flush had hit on the turn it would be a small possibility but no decent opponent is going to barrel that here. That leaves us with a few possibilities that should mostly be dependent on your play history. By the implications of your considerations, you might be betting or raising a flush? If this is the case then that does expand his range to air but I still v much doubt a bet with any flush from our opponent, if he was going to make such a play sensibly, he always does so on the turn anyway. 99 with the nfd is also a possibility but again, unlikely to even raise on the flop, and with the t out there then 99 is a tiny part of his range unless combined with an 8, far more likely he is playing either 89 xx 8txx or 89xx, given the turn check, I think that 89xx is v likely but but check rr tt or t8 with pos is not an unusual play at all, though most opponents have sucked out to spiked overpairs enough to generally feel compelled to bet even tt on the turn. Even 86xx, 8txx or dare I say it 99xx. All accounted I think that this should be a very difficult fold but therefore a very good one.
If you think your opponent pays attention to your play, assume that he has a decent read on you here, bear in mind that blockers do not operate in this situation, does he think that he will fold you off of the hand you have, enough of the time to make it profitable, or do you have enough history and play enough for him to not mind being caught out by the weaker end of you range because he will expect looser calls later on?
In a vacume, you give your opponent a huge amount of credit, or very little at all to expect a shove with anything but a fh house here, if we assume that he has one 90% of the time, and that only two of the combos (split so *0.5 is 1) split the pot (again he is unlikely to raise these) you have his bluff % vs your the whopping 20/1 houses that beat you.

Fold.

Yes, the problem with this rationality is that you are committed to get it in with 'pair and no draw' which happens alot of the time and as is often the case when regarding aaxx ranges, he also has aa double suited and aa tj 1 suit etc and these have you crushed on alot of flops.
Something that amuses me about alot of plo theory are remarks like: 'worst case scenario I will have odds to call' - the skill is avoiding situations where you have to make calls behind.

There are two benefits to your strategy here - polarizing your ranges, and irritating your opponents =)

Eugh... I think you are right to fold. Even if not against AA some donk is likely to have a x fd in their range. I think you equity is generally around 20-25% here so it is a good fold.
How did the hand run out.... =p

I prefer to bet the flop and avoid these sticky spots. you can bet fold or check fold river but i think cf is better. V doesnt bluff with weaker too often. Your hand is too weak to cc cc, better to fold pre.

tbh I really dislike checking the flop here. It is about as good as you can hope for with your hand, and you might be repping monster draw, set etc, you fold out aces without the fd as well as the majority of weak multi way draws and you save yourself what is likely to be a difficult decision from turn to river (when you hit, even a weaker flush may re-raise fold you off and you have high negative implied without the information gained from betting/ semi bluffing flop. Pot control has some merits but I think you take the pot down enough here and that your negative implied are high enough to counter your implied. Effectively, you have given all weaker hands a free card and all stronger hands affordibility to get to the river.
By the turn: I feel that it is quite unlikely that the a h fd does not bet, unless it is with is such a monster draw that it limped in early pos. and wants to re-raise (very unlikely still) However, although you have blockers, the fact that they are unconnected makes it far less likely that they are inhibiting the probability of a connected rundown in the range we are looking at, therefore i would not count on them as such a great factor here. The hands that your opponents are betting, do not include many two pairs that are not made on (therefore betting) the flop, unless they include blockers, to the straight, as turning two pair into a bluff here is dreadfully bad, when they have the blockers, they would also be combined with two pair, a set or a strong draw, after your flop check, it would be unlikely for you to crush those ranges and a thinking player is likely to make a call with lots of hands that have you beat. Agreed, the shove here is prob + ev against weak-average opponents but I think less so that a simple flop bet.