SeventhLion

Hello Robin , i would highly appreciate if you could make some strategy talk videos :) Topic is up to you

Hey robin! i am curious about your thought process in one hand :)

8:16 u 3bet AAK9 pre vs MP. Why cbet this board? Why choose 2/3 size on paired board? Why do you think people almost always raise with 7 on flop already?

ugh, guess i give it a shot. i like to analyse the hand anyway, so it doesnt hurt to also post a result of my analysis:

Assuming his BTN continuing range after you 3bet is >30% and your 3bet is 5-6% (it also depends how is it constructed) , to prevent you from bluffing with this small size, he has to defend so wide that your value range related to your whole range is more than 33%.

I didnt get the math done on bluff:value ratio , so for the time i rely on Ed Millers 1% book where recommended ratio is 2:1 on flop.. Also i dont know if this is optimal, but in any case it is not exploitable to cbet 100% of range when your value is >33% (and value can be easily determined by putting the realistic range to opponent and constructing his unexploitable defense based on your bet sizing. Then you put his range into syntax and u see what is value (>50%)).

Today i was analyzing similar spot, but the flop was QJ4 mono. Roughly your value range is 8hi flush+ and top set. I did the math and seems on the river you have to defend 34% of your whole preflop 3bet range (counting each street defense and then see river combos and what part of your 3bet range it is).

Based on my post you will know what you should call him here if you think he bluffs, since i dont know how you would play high flushes (whether raise it earlier street or whatever), but on a zero level where you dont raise anything but just calldown , 34% of your whole 3bet range (err,mine. you need to the analysis by yourself to aim much more accurate) looks like:

21% flushes , 22% KK . So the problem here is : if you just calldown (what you of course dont) you need to call all flushes you have in your whole range and then decide what KK to fill up. The more combos of higher flushes you raise on earlier streets, the more combos of KK you need to defend on river and that leads your opponent to widen his value range since you are capped combowise. (and naturally widen bluffs aswell).

As a guidance you still need to analyze your own range here what you need to call with on river. regardless of your range, math dictates you to defend 34% of your whole preflop range on river.

Seems from any angle i look at it, 35% of your whole range is so wide (this guy sized the bets way too good) that id bet within scale of 5-8% 3bet you need to defend some KK here unless your way of constructing the 3bet is like double-suited KK and single suited heavy rundowns/1gaps/2gaps where your flush to KK ratio will outweight into such domination that the 34% will be just flushes.

Final note : hope my way of thinking helped you.

#1 But the principle is they are not obliged to defend at all, they serve as interference. Because of they are present, they will want to make some profit.

#3 a rough estimation of frequencies ;P