SamIAm72

Since it seems like the player pool doesn't bluff at optimal levels on the river, and their bets are value heavy, what types of adjustments should we make to deviate from a 1-alpha strategy when evaluating our calling range?

Yes, please make more of these.

My gut reaction was that this was a good hand to barrel. However, after putting together the range I think he calls with on the flop, I think I agree with Urb that (a) you don't get enough folds and (b) your behind his range. I had him calling the flop (as opposed to folding or raising) with this range:

Does this work / make sense?

Preflop calling range: TT-66, AQs-ATs, AQo, KQs-KJs, QJs-98s (78 combos)

Flop Calling Range: TT-77, AQs-ATs, AQo, KQs-KJs (excluding spades), 98s (excluding spades) (48 combos)

Turn Calling Range: TT, 77, AQs-ATs, AQo, KQs (excluding spades), KcJc, 9c8c (28 combos)

On the river, you have 12 combos of 2 pair or better. Perhaps you can bluff 4 combos (9c8c, KcJc, and a couple of the TT)? This would allow you to bet 1/3 pot and keep him indifferent between calling and folding his bluff-catchers.

Mathematically, you need to win one out of six times to make the call equivalent to folding. If you win more than 1 out of 6, you should call. So, is he bluffing 16.6% of the time? Did you try building his flop, turn and river ranges to see if he could have that many check-raise bluffs in his range? You didn't mention suits, which might be important for figuring out what he would have continued with on the turn. From practical experience, I think this is almost never a bluff. As soon as you think he's only bluffing 5%-10% of the time, this is an easy fold, despite the good odds to call. It feels a lot like he has A7, 77, or 76s and hit a lucky river.