RunItTw1ce

37 min When we are attacking OOP capped range against a X-X line on this 864-X board. Where if they bet all their 2 pair+ on the turn themselves, we just get to range bet the turn in a X-B line. Would you advocate doing this OOP SRP as the PFR as well? After the flop goes XX, where we are checking 70-75% of our range on most flops already, can we take a X-B-B line OOP as an exploit as well or do we have to be more careful OOP?

Here I locked IP to bet all their top pair+ on the flop 100% of the time, essentially capping their range. Using the custom Ai solver was using around 250% pot as its only size at first. I changed it to 3 sizes 33/66/125 and it still liked using 125% about 1/2 the time. I changed it to a simplified strategy of B50, to see how wide it would go and its still only betting about half the time. Mainly the AK-A9 we want to check blocking opponents Ax check backs on the flop. Then we get to bet everything else at some frequency.

Really enjoyed this exploit video. I think you can take it further and up the aggression a lot more. I would look for spots where I'm not polarizing to quads, but increasing my betting frequency. BXB, XBB, or BBX as the 3 main lines. I would bluff way less in a BBB lines as they already over fold flop and turn quite a bit, so BBB line should be very value heavy unless a scare card comes.

36 min from opponents perspective if we expect IP to not cbet 864r very often and mostly only cbet if there is a high card on the flop, then I think exploitative OOP wants to lead all their sets and start building a pot or their pair + SD hands. Do you concur?

28:27 Being deeper stack I'm shocked you just fold 99 vs 2.5x HJ vs LJ. Even if villain's stats are tighter I think we have to see a flop. Pool is not squeezing that aggressively. Usually around 6-8% for most players. I think we want to vpip most pp and despite the high rake just have a flatting range because they will make so many mistakes postflop.

29:25 Why are we folding K6s here? Donk 1bb 3 ways. Fold to a raise with a pair + BDFD?

The one thing I would change is just to split your sizes on the flop. Because the pool is going to under XR you can size however you want on the flop. Typically B30 would be weaker hands and weaker draws. B70 stronger hands and stronger draws. Then you can put some stronger hands into the small size that needs less protection like sets, straights, & flushes. Then some stronger draws that are typically negative EV to go BBB with like a combo draw or some type of flush draw I would like to use a lot of over bets on the turn. Just playing in a really face up manner.

As your notes say their range will be stronger than it should be on later streets, so I would want to front load a lot of aggression on the flop and turn with value.

4 step guide to crushing low stakes. Showing the game plan before the session is something more people should be doing. Write down your session goals and execute!

The issue for me is that I don't feel like telling people to barrel off resonates with my core message. I look at it more like, "when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to become a good measure." A lot of people look at something like redline as a proxy for how well they're playing, but I think its better to just focus on the fundamentals and a coherent strategy and let the lines fall where they will. In short, remove red/blue line from your graph. Doesn't matter.

Thank you for this. Very helpful once I understood a bit more of what you meant in layman's terms. IAmNeo

Ai response because I didn't know what you meant by this.

This phrase, often attributed to Goodhart's Law, suggests that when a metric or a measure becomes the primary focus, often for the purpose of evaluation or competition, it loses its effectiveness as a meaningful indicator. This happens because people start to manipulate the measure itself rather than focusing on the underlying goal or outcome it's supposed to represent.
Think of it like this: if a school starts judging its success solely by students' test scores, teachers might focus on teaching to the test rather than providing a well-rounded education. The test scores become the target, but they no longer accurately reflect the quality of education.
In a broader sense, this phenomenon occurs in many areas, such as economics, politics, and social sciences. When a measure becomes a target, people start gaming the system, which can lead to unintended consequences and undermine the original purpose of the measure.
For instance, in the corporate world, if a company's success is measured solely by quarterly profits, executives might prioritize short-term gains over long-term sustainability or social responsibility. This can result in decisions that benefit the company's bottom line but harm its employees, customers, or the environment.
The phrase serves as a warning that metrics and measures should be used thoughtfully, considering the potential consequences of making them the primary focus.

None of the journals are sharing anything in terms of strategy, so putting journals behind a paywall doesn't make sense. You're sharing a lifestyle and your experiences. I doubt that changes behind a paywall where you open up about strategy. Also didn't RIO reach out to you about making videos and you passed? I thought this was a year ago? I remember many of us wanted you to make videos here on RIO, but you decided to not reveal your strategy as you were focusing on moving up to higher stakes. I am able to pick your brain here and there about strategy, but you have to admit its very limited on what you are willing to share. And this is going to go for several other journals as well. Being behind a $200 paywall isn't going to change that.

Thanks for the suggestion! I'd rather put it out on Youtube for free than be an essential coach, though.

I'm pre-subscribed! LFG!

You can tell those people to loosen up and they'll say "I know, I know" and then continue to nit it up.

This is where your videos will help! Telling them something and showing them at least for me changes things drastically. I have a friend who moved up from 50NL to 10/20 and has been telling me this for a long time. There are several things I can't wrap my head around though. Mainly for live cash.

Higher rake
shallower stacks
They cold call a ton
Multiway pots.

I don't see how opening hands like KTo QJo from LJ/HJ is going to help. There are usually 1-2+ limpers and when you try to ISO 7bb you just end up going MW still. So it doesn't make sense to ISO a wide range and play a bloated pot with a low SPR with marginal hands. Feels almost handcuffed at lower stakes. GTO wizard charts are too tight. There are so many questions your videos could shed some light on.

Would love to see if you would apply some of the same things you did on ignition i.e. MOP pod you mentioned you were 3 betting something like 30% of hands from all positions at 500NL.

I tried loosening up taking all the mixes for RFI ranges and making them pure, a lot of the 3bet ranges making them pure for the linear section. Yesterday I was playing vs a maniac raising dark, so I was 3 betting A3s, A5s, QTs, and a bunch of premiums. I LOST to a guy cold calling 3bets Q9o, calling 3bets K9o, 43s, and even 62o on one hand.

The main question I had at the end of my session was are these preflop wars even worth it? Should I just be calling and keeping the SPR at a higher level or continue to play these 3-4 SPR pots? I don't know if I'm just complaining about variance and I'm on the right track or if something is wrong with my strategy.

Please please please! Make some videos!

Taking someone from nit to hero usually requires the type of mentorship that comes from long-term coaching, but maybe could come from a public course as well if its lengthy and the player feels immersed in it. I just find it's a very emotional topic for them deep down, and having a solid relationship with a coach is key to avoid them regressing when they hit the inevitable 20 buy-in downswing.

I 100% concur to this. I'm a very open book and have addressed a lot of the issues I've had with variance stemming from childhood. Even though I'm aware of these risk averse emotions it's still a lot of lack of confirmation on whether or not I'm adjusting correctly.

I think journals should be paywalled, if Phil could make that happen.

In terms of getting views this would drastically decrease the amount of feed back and likes Josh gets. Many journals on here, for example Iamneo (Mathew Marineli) I am pretty sure he is not a RIO member. Gives away some great advice similar to Demondoink but going behind a paywall would probably be 25% of the following. Josh has also mentioned he is not a big fan of rio coaching videos, so he would likely restrict himself.

Luke Johnson created a journal on 2+2 and also a youtube channel. I strongly disagree with this stuff being behind a paywall. I think this is the approach Josh is going towards.

You have a lot to offer, but you have to remember as you mentioned above people are focused a lot on short term results. If short term results like graphs gain more views and likes, then you should post them. Even if 90% of the crap you don't believe in or in your words you find disingenuous where people can challenge your credibility, the 10% that actually matters will be found by someone and have an impact.

Your view on what poker players provide to society was an excellent take and pulling babies out of a vagina had me rolling!

The other facts like Australia having 38% gamblers was mind blowing. I've played with quite a few at bellagio here in Vegas. They are definitely very fun to play with! I always heard the rake in Canada and Australia is extremely high. One of the first people I learned poker from back in like 2005-2007 was Australian. Username Wombat playing mid to high stakes SNGs. They have a certain social presents to them, maybe it's their accent, but it makes them very fun to play with at the table.

I don't know if I ever shared this Australian Interview with you, but this is what I think of every time someone mentions Australia.

Please post pictures of your travel! Also if you want more coaching opportunities graphs are very important!

Thank you for releasing a very valuable course here on RIO. Two questions about it.

1) What is the difference in this course and your CFP?

2) Are you students mad that you are more or less releasing the same info you teach them for $999 compared to their 18 month / 600k hand contract where they give up 40-50% of their profits? This kind of makes the course a STEAL! Compared to what your students are investing into their future.

Congrats on retirement, jackpot, and first runitonce course.

It’s still tough sometimes when I see some of my students having $50K+ months.

Why do you think this is tough? I would be thrilled as a coach to see the success my student have as their coach.

As far as videos, you never know. No plans at the moment.

Become an essential coach and the redline the hell out of 50NL - 200NL! There is so much fear at lower stakes with pulling the trigger on bluffs or bluff catching. A small contract would help so many people as you mentioned 50NL players break out of their shell.

Journals are dying and mostly for oneself to hold yourself accountable for certain things. Mathew Marinelli in his journal mentioned if the journal just helps one 50NL player reach higher stakes that is all he wants out of it.

Pictures are worth a million words. When you scroll through this journal there is only one picture. People honestly don't want to read a bunch of stuff. That is why Insta and youtube shorts are so popular. If you want to reach a large audience I would suggest one of those. 90% of people are simple human beings. The key is not to be shocked by how dumb some people can be. If you are not shocked, then you are not irritated by it.

Post graphs, more pictures of places you are traveling to, pictures of your house, maps of places you do your running / marathons, big names of people you play against online, maybe some pictures of casinos you travel to.

Visual stimulation is the key to a successful journal IMO.

Eldora I think you are right with OOP being more linear. IP will have more polar bluffs, which explains the clubs.

45min with 33 on 887cc board. I think of this spot a bit differently. Where you mentioned its a fold as the PFR should have a tighter cbet range MW.

I look at it as recs over cbet boards they should have close to a range check on. With the live tell that BB looks like he is folding I actually want to put in a raise on the flop for equity denial.

Earlier in the video you mentioned bet sizing tells are not as reliable, more live tells in a live environment though. I find recs are not betting 25-33% pot here with their strong hands. They will tend to size up to half pot, so I find bet sizing tells to be the most reliable tell. They will also mainly find bluffs with that naked Ace of clubs because they saw it on some vlog.

Mobius poker with Patrick Howard said something when you are debating between call or fold, you should raise!

Solid content.

How do you incorporate live tells for bluff catching, when we know the pool is under bluffing? If they are even under bluffing a little bit all bluff catchers are -EV.

I struggle with this because I used to focus on live tells a lot and have made some incredible calls and also looked incredibly stupid at times. In my mind I struggle to put weight into these live tells compared to just having the discipline to fold consistently. If we need them to be bluffing 25% of the time or value betting worse 25% of the time against a half pot size bet, but we know they are only bluffing 15% of the time, is it worth bluff catching still because of a live tell?

Sorry for so many comments. A lot of interesting hands.

34:30 isn't the flop size too big here going 3.5x for nacho? As you mentioned he isn't polarized to Tx. Then on the turn as well facing the 1.5x shove. Doesn't seem like the best strategy playing a 2 street game rather than 3 street game. Unless he thinks your a fish lol? And just trying to maximize. idk. Made this comment before you said he has tilt issues, which explains a lot.

32:00 you mentioned the Td is a good card to have blocking some of the value. This was a 4BP (low frequency) for JTo. I saw another hand in the triton series (image below) where the announcers were saying having a Ten blocking the bluffs heads up is actually bad. We want to unblock the bluffs. So in a wider configuration if this was a SRP, would you want the Td or want to unblock the Td?

17:30 of this video

21min on Kx5h3h-4h do you think they will call off with a hand like AhJx for a SDFD? Wondering if we can just XRAI on the turn? 21:18 I almost guessed his hand! I was guessing 86o lol, kinda close!

25:30 I thought you were going to limp call AKo to keep the btn in the pot. I guess if the rec is not a big enough fish to cold call 3bets, then we are not worried about keeping them in the pot. On this J88dd board is it better to have AxKd or AdKx? Then just fold AKo if no diamond?

10:00 on 852-3 you mentioned AQ is a better bluff than AK because it blocks QQ for the calling range. But if we are folding JJ-99 at some frequency and calling A5s, 66, & AK that you mentioned, wouldn't we want to have AK instead of AQ as a bluff, so we don't lose to AK?

In the wizard sim you showed AQ wasn't in range and AK was shoving, HJ was folding AK. We just call A5s, 66, 87s, JJ / QQ+.

4:45 you said you would shove the river with T9? Are there are a lot of worse hands that are calling a shove? Its a 3BP IP PFC. BTN float bets 33% flop. 2/3 turn and checks back river. I thought this was a standard check back spot. Idk if Linus ever has 4x here or QT, but should have some QJ JT or JhXh some better 9x? Shoving 9x here for value seems kind of wild to me. Maybe 9x with a kicker?

Custom Ai Wizard link for exact bet size, pot size, and stack sizes in game. I never thought BvB would ever fold a flush, but only mandatory call AXs KXs+

Also Luke Johnson Idk the exact time stamp for this hand, but you mentioned wizard was calling J6s and your sim was 3 betting at some frequency, so you went with your PIO sim. In this custom Ai sim, wizard is 3 betting J6s on the flop about 30% of the time.

One last note JTo was close to a pure check back on the turn for this custom Ai, but J9o is barreling off, so it can't be too bad.

SB Cb 28% (1.21)
BB raises 111% (8.7)
SB calls.
Turn
BB cb 70% (15.33)
SB XC.
River
BB shoves 141% (73.72)
SB calls. 0EV.

I started watching him a couple weeks ago. He makes some very solid videos. A bit advanced for the public. Not super entertaining, but very educational.

I thought The Mental Game of Poker 2 would go well with your post. I just read this chapter today on self discipline. Where a lot of players think people either have it or they don't, but its more of a skill or muscle that is trained. In the client's story he talks about playing 32 hour sessions and continuing to grind even when he was tired and burned out until the fish had no more money. However, he learned being more professional and keeping a schedule is going to net him about 15% more money yearly than a regular who had bad habits of chasing losses, not sleeping properly, unhealthy eating, etc. A lot of the confidence in poker comes from the work you do off the table!

SoundSpeed Krzysztof Slaski I watched this video on donking 3BP IP PFC on the turn today. Goes over MDA, theory, bet size, and range construction. Could make for an interesting follow up video. He used 3BP OOP HJ vs CO as the PFC. What turns do we donk and how the flop cbet size influences the turn donking range / frequency.

Emty if opponent bet, since we can not bet the river for value, are we folding T6? We do have a blocker to 99. What's the worse hand we are calling a shove with?

*I'm really new to PLO formats. Please take my questions as coming from a beginner. I'm well studied in NL and some double board PLO bomb pots, but I have never studied PLO / PLO5.

21 min Emty mentioned it is too thin to bet the river for value in this hand. Doesn't this contradict your turn barrel? If you can only bluff with this hand, but when you make a hand you can't value bet? What's the worse hand we can value bet here if not T6? If opponent bet the river do we fold?

21:45 you mentioned you are surprised to see a XR. The river SPR is only going to be about 1, so can't we just XR all of our straights, sets, and flushes? Throw in some AhQx AhJx for bluffs?

Matt Marinelli