Ruffles

he should not have many flushes. Remember he calls a 5x raise from the bb, which defines his range to 22-AA, AJs,AQ-AK, KQs/KJs, and player dependent may call with J 10/109 s etc. He should never have a bunch of suited aces, because these would often get 3 bet since your raising a post, and your often raising light(ace x is a good blocker). His flushes that are reasonable are hands like AK/AQwith a bd fd, but you block the king s and the jack s hits river. Even if he is super loose, and calls with hands like j9 ss he can no longer have these hands OTR, even jq ss. So since he doesnt have many flushes, that doesnt mean he doesnt have hands that beat your hand. Reasonably villian has 12 combos of sets because 33, would simply be very ambitious. However, I think the jack river is a bad river to jam because the only combo that can reasonably call are the jack x suited(which im not sure he would play pre) and QQ even is unlikely for him to have in this spot. I would say most of the time villian has the AQ-AK with clubs(which you block) 99/88/10 10/55/j9cc/jqcc. On the jack river, i think you have a x fold. A jam simply turns your hand into a bluff and there are better hands to bluff with like AK/AQ cc and AK/AQ with a spade. I think if it was the poster who called flop/turn though/ the jam is easy because his range is less defined.

This is an insane fold. I cant possibly see how folding a set here could possibly be a reasonable play, We only have 6 combos of hands that beat our hand, and after bb overcalls, its unlikely villian is going to take this line even with JJ with draws such as 9 10/q 10 being in your range and bbs range. Id assume you call flop with k qs/kj/s/ak(i dont know if you standard three bet when you fold 88 here)//q10/910/88 even if your the biggest nit on the planet. Also, we can also have k 10 suited if we can have q 10s. Anyways, how can we advocate folding when we do have bluffs in our range/ 1p hands like kx that can fold to a raise? I think this would be a good spot to make a bet like 40% pot because bb has draws in his range +a short stack, and when he continues, utg as a reg will play pretty honest against the two of us given his stack size. Also, folding so high on our range just seems silly/playing scared.
Also, I think you mention a 2k hand sample which isnt close to a significant sample(20k+). Also, 1.5 af is fairly agressive, esp if hes using a 50% c bet strat on flop. You didnt really give info about villian, and the info you have, theres not enough to make folds this size. Sure if your opponent is a moron, you can tell after 400 hands, but a 200nl zoom player isnt going to be a retard like at a 200 live game.

I'm in small blind

This must be kappa.....

Hmmmm

Thanks I just didn't think either of us have many flushes and straight and that there is more one pair hands in his range.

I also didn't think I have hands like ace x cause I would most likely check call almost always with a hand like ace 6

I thought my bluffs were 6 10 and 69

x raise 3 barrel often ^

I was thinking about this as well that flush combos aren't that frequent and I tend to 3 bet a lot of suited connector hands. My opponent and I have a lot of history where I x raise flop with backdoor draws+gutters+ some stronger draws + even hands like 99(low freq)

However when the 7 gets there I believe that I would still continue the times I have a straight(off suit combos)-suited I'm 3 betting often so I think I have more value hands then flushes. I would also consider playing a set this way sometimes because of the times I am bluffing.

Also I tend to x 69-6j far more frequently than other gutter draws + I have a backdoor higher draw to yhe 8 on the turn so I thought turning all 69 into a 3 barrel bluff couldn't be that bad because of the added turn equity.

Also I don't tend to x raise 3 barrel and for the reason I picked up a double gutter I decided to barrel this hand down

I don't know if this plan is a great plan but I know i need to throw in more bluffs than a gutter with a heart as well

What hands would you choose as bluffs here?

Id imagine villian calls turn near 100% if his range he continues flop(he might fold q4 and k4 and ace 4 ) . I would put him on a range of 22-AA, 54 53 65 67 68 ace 5 king 5, q5 q 3 suited, ace 2, j-k 4 s, ace 4, any pair and gutter essentialy. id imagine he has flushes in his range as well as straights, also he has ace 6 with the ace of hearts or king 6 with the king of hearts hed continue.

What i was thinking:
The only bluffs I have in my range are 6x that x raised flop.
-I would check raise hands like 6 10 and 69 and 68 that have no sdv and not hands like k 6 often unless i had king h , and i would include straights into my polarized range in this spot. Im not sure if thats a correct thing to do, or if i should simply not bluff as much with 6 10 or 69.
-I can have flushes +straights and 32 combos of 69 and 6 10 that i wouldnt always x raise, but would include some x call and x fold turn.
-I dont know if my logic is correct in this spot. Im just trying to incorporate more x raises and trying to get better, so spots become more tricky.