Rockychi

Given those three betting ranges above a fold with 66T no suits may be slightly tight but not crazy tight. Looking at equities only gets us so far, there are four more betting streets three of them bigger, reverse implied odds, and with ICM the chips we win are worth less than the ones that we lose.

We also need to catch some helpful cards while our opponent simultaneously doesn’t help himself tremendously. We can talk about what we need to continue against a 5th street bet and approximate how often we are can go on but if that number is only 60% of the time a 40% erosion is a lot especially considering many of the times we play on we may only have one overcard and are a dog but continuing due to pot odds in this ICM situation

Great content here. I know it’s a really old video but if I were to analyze that last steal with (39)Q with two diamonds I would want to view it from the perspective of just a pure steal.

He blocks two of remaining cards behind him, a 9 and a three as well as diamonds, so instead of looking at equities I’d look at what I think the remaining players need to have to defend with, how often they will have it, and compare it to how often our steal needs to get through on 3rd in order to be instantly profitable.

And if we are called on 3rd when can still bink a queen which is around a 6% probability