
Riverpulpfiction
2 points
Nice idea about preserving mental game.
July 1, 2022 | 5:42 p.m.
First of all, I would bet the flop bigger. We are semi bluffing to ideally create max fold equity and for that I want to put on a bit more pressure. I would of course call his flop c/r and a realistic range I think is made hands such as set, top two and a bunch of draws. I agree that turn looks rather weak then. Maybe a hand like A2cc would feel like they are so ahead that they wanna give you a chance to catch up but if we take his sizing for face value then its probably more like A7cc or 67cc plus A9cc, A6cc, A4cc, A3cc, T9cc, maybe 34cc. Those are all reasonably well in his range I think and if we do the math you are left with ca. 32% equity. If you assume he never bets a straight or a set in this manner, then we have huge reverse implied odds and it could very reasonably be a fold on the turn. I think I would probably always go on monkey brain in a hand like this and also reason myself into a call but I think doing it now on paper I'm not sure what we are looking for? We could add T7cc, 96cc and 74cc to his range (also ATcc for that matter) and then theres 7 combos we lose to and 6 we have beat. Of course he could overplay sets and straights. For that I guess its interesting if the sample size of 100 hands was from 3 handed action, short handed or full ring. Because for 3 handed those are quite reasonable stats. Assuming no reads whatsoever my impression is the general population on this limit is rather straight forward. Which makes me lean more towards the pessimistic side of his range. In any case, I agree that river jam is overplayed here. It makes sense given the way you played the hand but realistically he will be snapping with a lot of nut flushes here. If we still assume the odd two pair or set until river, this bet definitely makes me wanna fold.
July 1, 2022 | 8:22 a.m.
With this stack size, I definitely don't want to play offsuit AK oop in a huge pot. Just makes life difficult. Maybe that's weak but I find it troublesome. So my preflop action would be just to flat. As played you see exactly the kind of spot you get in otherwise: overcommitted with just TP. When will we ever be comfortable in this spot to go broke? C/f turn seems kinda week but looking at stack sizes, the commitment question is definitely raised on the turn already. I think an average players range has you crushed here. Preflop he doesn't have the odds to profitably set mine or play a lot of drawing hands. The temptation is there surely but I doubt that players on this level have the postflop skills to pull it off often enough. I could be wrong about it of course. That leaves mostly AA-QQ, AK. We block some but I really don't see a lot of A5s semibluff hands bluffjamming river. We beat nothing but air and air is tough to pull off.
Isn't it easy? If you feel uncomfortable playing a 4bet pot with this hand (which I agree is tricky) why not just flat pre and keep all of his KQ AQ etc in?
July 1, 2022 | 5:43 p.m.