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Q

7 points

Comment | Q commented on ICM Intro

Unless there is some anomality in payout structure this statement usually holds true. But of course, if someone has 1 chip and if you bust him from tournament your minimal payout increases, winning this 1 chip from this particular player is very valuable and losing 1 chip to another player is not so valuable.

So busting a player with stack of X chips is not the same as winning X chips from big stack, for example.


Sept. 28, 2014 | 9:16 a.m.

Comment | Q commented on ICM Intro

I think you are correct. The real question, how exactly to consider POB in such scenario. If we win, we get a lot of push possibilities with low bust probability. If we fold, we continue to get pushed at and at some point we will have to make a call with high bust probability.

Soo.. why not now? If we wait a few hands, our double up will get us back to medium stack and won't grant us chances to make +EV pushes with low bust probability as big stack, thats for sure.

I wrote an article about related problem here: http://www.icmpoker.com/en/articles/icm-poker-and-ultimate-difference-between-call-and-push-spots/


Sept. 27, 2014 | 8:31 p.m.

Comment | Q commented on ICM Intro

Ben, ICM based analysis of single hand doesn't really consider bust probability and its implications. They can be achieved through some serious mental modeling only.

When you call there is a ~50% chance that tournament ends right here, and upcoming hands won't give you any opportunity to continue making +EV decisions hand after hand. In another 50% of cases you double up and continue tournament in a new scenario - as a big stack where chips flow in your direction. 

When you shove bust probability is much lower pretty much always, so by continiously pushing you can accumulate +EV hands one by one and improve your tournament result. 

This dynamic is pretty much outside of ICM single-handed scope, but it has to be considered when you are contemplating a ~0% EV call.

For example, in HU sng if opponent pushes first hand and you make a slightly +EV call, tournament can end immediately and you will be negative cause of rake being > than +EV call you made. So you can choose to pass some scenarios which have high probability of bust scenario in order to even have a chance to accumulate enough +EV decisions during tournament to beat rake.


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Sept. 27, 2014 | 8:25 p.m.

Comment | Q commented on ICM Intro

In such scenario when you have a medium stack very few hands are actually just slightly -EV, most are very -EV, so this doesn't change much in calling ranges. ICM pressure is very high and (big stack push range % / medium stack call range %) ratio is simply huge.

Sept. 27, 2014 | 8:18 p.m.

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