Polar1965

Thank you GameTheory for responding.  I was just taken back that whatever the amount of the antes were (I know sb was $200, bb was $400) ( and I assume the antes somewhat equal the sb when added together) that they factored into any decision when playing for those kind of stakes.  

Yes I think you should value bet here for a number of reasons....

A. You said he was the best calling station in the world.

B.  you built a big pot for a reason, I imagine it was to bleed this guy's stack dry.

C.  Your hand is played exactly like it is (AAxx or KKxx), but you hit a homerun with your side cards.  

Since he is a calling station I would try to get as much from him as I could, I would go for 1/2 pot, 1/3 pot is too small vs a calling station, get what you can.  Does this guy ever call a pot bet with just two pair?

Yeah "IF"

Nice thread, interesting how you pros turn this into calculus so nicely.  It was fun looking at how you guys break it down.  

But from my point of view this poor guy lost $40,000 because of $200!!!!!!

[ I do however think I can defend it profitable with a discount and the dead antes in the middle (call $1000 to win $2480).

I do also think im folding preflop here without the antes in the middle. ]

Does $200 mean that much to you pros when.....

A.  You have $68k on the table and probably 2 mill in the bank 

B.  You have to play one of the worlds best PLO players out of position

C.  You have a hand with no nut anything?

Forget the analysis, that is way above my head, but why even get into this hand just because of $200 worth of antes???

You played it well and he just got there.  This is a good hand to show the nastiness of PLO. Your opponent was playing this hand mostly because of the suited ace, he hits the other two cards instead ( the 5& 7).  Now he bets bottom two like its the nuts, gets raised and calls!! The turn gives him hope for a flush to beat you ( he must think he is behind in most cases after your flop raise ).  The river is good and bad in his eyes, but he calls cause he has a nut flush on a paired board.  

You played the hand nice.  You get a great flop for your hand and start building a big pot to eventually get the stacks in, the turn gives you an emergency flush draw that may be good and you should keep building.  The river sucks and now you have a decision to make, give up and save your stack for another hand or try to keep fighting and steal this thing if somehow your opponent missed or will just make a mistake and fold a better hand ( like a medium flush ) because your river shove seems to show continued strength in his eyes. ( you banged the flop, and bet the turn)

I think the opponent played the flop bad, then gets saved on the turn to give him hope, then falls in love with nut flush and calls on a paired board hoping you did not have Q7xx, Q5xx or set on flop.

[ Because he's a huge dog preflop for PLO hands, against this particular hand, I can POT any flop, right? ]

He won't usually be a huge dog after the flop unless he missed The whole world. I would not get into a habit of shoving AAxx down opponents throat after the flop on a routine basis.

[I would be folding 100% in his position, that is correct right? (with his Axxx hand vs 4bet) -given my 4bets are AA** 90% + ]

I would be folding here, but some players like to play you in this spot because they "know" you have AAxx.  All they need is to hit a little bit on the flop that is not scary and they will go for it.  So to trap these guys, you have to 4bet some other hands too ( like QJT9, A987 ds, etc ) to balance your range, just when they think you must have AAxx...BAM you hit them with a str8!!!

Tom,

Why it that clearly absurd.  The hero told us about the player tendency (tricky, good). If we bet we have to assume this player may try something, if we like this idea, then set him up and call him.  If we know he might make this move and wish not to be put in an awkward spot, then don't bet.

Why is that bad reasoning, I am playing player tendecies..?

You guys obviously missed the "fun" part!!

The player in this hand has to make a plan before he bets the river. He knows his opponent is tricky so he has to decide if he wants to bet to see if his opponent will bluff the 7. If he is willing to call this play, then pot and snapcall. If not, check river back.

You can't turn PLO into calculus all the time like NL!!!  Sometimes simple logic is enough.

On a more serious note, there is not much value if he has the 7.  

Like I said, it is a spot where I was having a little fun....it is just 25cent 50cent after all!!!

This is a spot where I have a little fun. On the river the pot is $10 before He bets, so I would bet $1. The most he can raise it is 3x plus the pot, makes for easy call against tricky player, it is like you are setting him up.  If he has the 7 you saved a few bucks.  You could also check the river back if you have no spine!!  :)

Why could this guy not have quads, just because he did not re-hit you pre flop? Remember he did raise first preflop.   I have to ask myself what is he calling all my bets with?  Not KKxx, not 35xx. ( he would not raise that on the river), not 44xx, not 22xx, so what is left???  Bluffs or AAxx, A4xx, A2xx .  He has to put us on the possibility of having AAxx given our action and he is still raising us!!!

At these limits, I would not expect any check raise bluffs on the river.  Just check behind on the river, your bet is only getting raised by better hands.  What hand is calling a river bet here with the action given? The hero reraised pre and bet every street.

At these limits, a raise on the river is a hand that is beating us.

Odds go out the window with me when I have made my opponent "exposé" himself.

Sorry that I am coming in late to the party, but that river card was nasty!  If I have any chance to win the pot at all it is to bet the river, if I get raised then I have my answer and I fold. If I check and this guy bets now what???  Did he really fill up or is he pouncing on my river weakness, I put myself in no mans land..  Make a river bet of 1/3 - 1/2 pot, make it look like a value bet wanting a call, if he raises then I know I am beat.  I like forcing my opponent to tell me his hand with my betting.

 I don't think AA is ever folding to your bet here, so you don't really achieve anything by betting.

Well I would not be betting to get a fold, I would be betting to milk a little more out of him in case I hit the river.  If I check turn then bet river when I hit, do I get called?  Maybe even a bad reg can see that one.  That turn looks harmless, so if I bet it he may think he is still good.  I can always back off the river when I know that I missed, it is still one bet either way, but here (betting turn) it does not look as strong as waiting to bet river.  If I hit the river I can get two bets called ( the turn and maybe the river).

He called your check raise so you have him hooked on something, since it is a rainbow flop I suppose two pair type hands, sets he raises.  With all those outs, bet pot and get it in.  If you check, he checks.  You only have like $36 left...send it in Jerome!!!

I like your thinking a lot, but you said this guy is a bad regular so he probably will not fold to a turn lead.  Being a bad reg, he might just see his two aces and go with it, but you have lots of outs, so I do not mind it.  Bad regs do not see your fancy plays, nor do they understand them after you beat them over the head with it. 

I say just lead into him, you are not folding to his bet on the turn if you check right? Does this guy ever check behind much? you want to stack him, so build it on the turn, if you brick the river, give up, you know he has aces, well 95% sure :)

You asked "what should my game plan be?" well here would be my thoughts before I opened. First, where is the biggest stack located (on the button with me OOP), but this big stack is a fish. Second, where is the shortest stack (SB) and what kind of player is he? (tight). Let's take care of the short stack first, if this guy 3bets me/us, do I want to continue with this hand against him? If no, then I can either...limp and play a small pot, or Bet/Fold if he comes in with his 3bet (you pick). If yes, then open raise and 4bet the SB and isolate anyone else in the hand and play for $535 vs the SB with this hand. Now I have no idea how you got the biggest stack at the table, you may play only for the nuts or a draw to it, or you may play loose as well, but looking at this hand that you opened for a raise, I would think the latter.
Ok, back to the biggest stack (besides your of course). You know that you are OOP vs this fish, but you have the game to play him (again an assumption). If Fish 3bets your open would you like it? If no, then limp and play smaller pot or bet/fold (i hate this option). but again pick an option. If yes, then if nobody else is in the pot flat call and see the flop. If someone else is in (and this is where we need help with how often the other players are in hands constantly), we can 4bet to isolate as an option. (again how crazy are you?) are you willing to 4bet pre to get hands up at the risk of a big pot, or are you willing to play 3 or 4 way in a smaller pot?
So that is my start as any kind of "plan " goes. Target where the short stack is, if there is one. When one player is short, the game and hand selection changes, so take care of that issue first.

As I look at this post, my question is what kind of flop did you want to get when you first decided to play this hand? Obviously a ten would be nice, but you do not have any nut draws, so I imagine you were doing cart wheels when the flop came out! you have a nice wrap, but granted no flush draws, so go with it, this should be one of the flops you like. You know you have the biggest stack at the table, with the fish having the next biggest behind you.....so I imagine you thought this out ahead of time, right? If you are trying to protect your stack a little bit, I would imagine you would have played it softer. What was your plan before you opened?