Seth

I don't think many hands at all in his range are folding river. He has a lot of hands like AJ, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JTs that are all calling the river, so like 60 hand combinations. The only folds are probably AT (unless AhTh) and T9s, maybe some weird A9s/K9s, so 18 or 24 hands. So about 60 to 20.

So if that's the case, he's calling - beating you - about 75% of times. I think that's a bit too much though, so he might be folding some of the hands where he beats you and calling some of your bluffs where you still only chop, and also in a very few cases some super weird Ax or Kx type hands where he still beats you if he calls. So at best he's only calling - beating you - 70% of times.

Since your raise on river is about 39% of the pot it's a bad deal for you.

All in all, you should probably have given up way earlier than that anyway since the board hits his range so hard already on the flop.

I'd say it depends somewhat on the players after you. If you think anyone is calling with top 20% of hands or more it's a fold, but if it's about 15% or less I'd say it's a pretty good shove. I might be completely wrong on this, but unless they have stats on you being aggro they're not calling your shove often with hands like Q9s, J9s or T9s (I'd think), so they're not often calling with top 20% of hands.

I mean, you could raise fold if they're nitty but I don't know if I like it.

I love the idea of an ICM theory video. What would be really great is if you show us how to actually practice on getting our ranges and odds all memorized and understood (maybe through that excel spreadsheet). Like you could teach us stuff for 40 minutes or an hour, or you could teach us how to teach ourselves.

I get sort of confused when I just play around in that spreadsheet. There always seems to be so many different numbers to play around with. The "Bubble Factor" number for example I really don't have a clue what to set it to.

Anyway, love your videos.