Penguinthief

I'd be b/f turn here I think to start with. It's a great card for you to barrel.

As played, I think its a fold on the river. I think at worst he maybe has AT/JJ or something here. I really can't see you being ahead of much. Even if you are, this can't be a long-term +EV spot to call.

+1 for it being a cooler.

I used to play a mix of 10NL/25NL/50NL with varying success, but was never really reading and studying much. I'd basically put some money on, try to double it, then cash out. I've therefore never actually beaten any stake, so I have no idea where my skill level sits.

For that exact reason, I started a week ago with $50 in order to keep moving up until I find my comfortable stake. I'm currently on 5NL but fast progressing towards 10NL. I feel like I'm crushing at the minute so hopefully I'll end up back at 25/50NL quite soon.

My progress is being tracked here: http://www.stuckatthemicros.com

His range here almost becomes insignificant. You're looking at this from the wrong way. What you just put out was our equity should we both reach showdown; that's never the intention, as if he calls we go passive except on a T.

Look at the hand this way instead. You've shown his possible range as 99+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+... That gives us 44 combos... So which of these can continue to a raise on a Q high flop in a 3b pot?

QQ+ and AQ is probably about it. Now we have 27 combos, so we remove 17 combos here and still have equity against most of it.

Now take into account that his bet is slightly over half pot, which considering a key point of micros is that bet size normally represents hand strength may tell us some information about his hand. This now allows us to be more certain that he's in one of the other 17 combos with less equity.

We have so much fold equity, and the remaining equity we have by hitting a T, that I'm sure this would work out as mathematically viable if our read about villains bet size adjustments.

If he folds here, I think its pretty standard. If he continues, I think that's more noteworthy.

https://www.weaktight.com/h/55d8deacd39043e0668b463b

Hand I just played, where I basically act like villian (but in a 3b pot ... remember in your hand though you're probably facing his 3b range, not a narrowed 4b calling range).. Familiar? Would I do this with a bigger 3b, or Cb? Probably not.

He has over pairs, but is he raising with them? Probably not..

I'm shipping here pre. Yes, sometimes limp/raise is going to be the nuts, but more often than not its a playback at you for isolating. I'd expect to raise here and get called by a lot of AJs/ATs/TT-22 style hands.

Flop play is good in my eyes. Can maybe raise a bit higher ($2.80 or so).

Turn, I'd probably bet nearer 90% pot. Any Kx, Qx or of course KQ is likely to continue, but you're charging the flush draws more to hit. You really need the added protection here.

River, I like the block bet idea. If you bet 30-40% pot, you're likely to still get value from AK/AQ/KQ style hands, and will probably get raised from a flush which is an easy fold to make. You can maybe make your bet smaller if you have a read that villain is a fish (which may be indicated by his stack size), so just fire $2 or something.

The problem is, yes you get more of his crappy range coming through, but you get 0 fold equity and therefore bring in all of his suited connectors, suited As, lower pairs and such. The pot was $1.55 with $0.35 to call.. Who isn't continuing with their whole 3b range when you've got about 5:1 odds?

You said you wanted hands like AK and TT-QQ to come along. TT is a bit hit and miss, but realistically the average reg (i.e. fish with a hand chart) at 25NL will be coming along with QQ, AQ and AK anyway, maybe extending to JJ being as this is late position. So you're losing money in the pot to get JJ/TT in, and lets be fair, how often are you getting 3 streets of value from TT? Any 3 barrel on a board with a J, Q, K or A will probably produce a fold.

This is fine if you accept this and continue with hard aggression knowing that villain is going to have a lot of draws, air and under-pairs. But then, the problem is further accentuated by your flop bet. If you would have bet 2/3 or 3/4 pot here, a lot of his missed hands will fold as you represent a solid range.

As played, it looks like your 4b is merely testing if his 3b is a bluff, and your Cb is aimed at removing his air rather than getting value from worse hands and draws. This, in turn, portrays your hand as being really weak and under confident, allowing villain to freely raise you and win with good regularity.

Go hard or go home!

What's with the tiny 4b? You're pricing him in to call with his whole squeeze range, then getting worried on a Q high flop. If you bet higher this flop would be easier as he shouldn't have 77/55 in his range. The half pot Cbet is small also; you're again giving villain a good price to raise you.

I'd probably 4b to around $1.25 and call any shove, and be cbetting most boards (especially a Q high dry flop like this) with good regularity. The way you've played, you've repped a weak enough range for villain to raise a high percentage of his squeeze range on dry flops.

It looks like you were just pressing buttons to be honest. Saying that, the defend is fine I think.

On the flop he bets under 50% pot on an ATx board. He can be doing this with his QQ, JJ, KQ, QJ and lower pairs on top of this value hands. Calling here has to be -EV surely, as what turns are you happy calling a second street? Pretty much J or 7 of spades exactly. So you can continue calling on around 5% of hands. If you raise, you could fold his draws and lower pairs. Folding is also fine.

As played, your make no sense on the turn really, again, except for specifically a T. If you had AK/AQ/AJ here, you would probably check back.

I also believe, as played, that if you bet the turn you should be betting the river. You have 0 showdown value, with 50BB in the pot and have tried repping a strong hand.

TLDR; raise or fold flop.

I'd be trying for 3 streets here. What is a realistic 4b calling range for a 25nl? For a bad reg, I'd say a scared AK, AQ, a loose AJ, QQ, JJ or someone trying to play AA/KK tricky. You can get value from most of these on the flop, so why not bet? He's never folding KK, AK or maybe AQ, so make the most of them!

I think the fold is good. What is he bluffing? Most of the straights hit, no flush draw was ever there, there's a paired board.. I think it's a hand that the more it gets analysed, the more of a fold it is.

He can only bluff QJ and QT here, and everything else that you beat checks back.

I'm folding pre here. You're going to face so much aggression as you rep a weak isolated range when you c/c PF. You're basically defined to mid pocket pairs, and some weird yolo stuff like ATs/AJs or KQs depending on how loose he sees you.

If he is a reg, he'll know this and it makes this an easy double barrel with any 2. Due to the board, you can only really call with sets as he's a lot more likely to have an overpair.

As played, fold turn unless you have specific reads about multi-barrel bluffing.