Pandaclocker

However, your hand has showdown value vs 3 sure combos of his range QJhh, QThh, JThh (also maybe occasionally T9hh, Q9hh,J9hh, who knows) and since the river is such a bad card to triple barrel on as bluff, I think checking back river is best. Villain shoulde never fold Kx on the river imo.

Bet flop? Yes.
Give up on this brick-turn and just check-back turn, letting us see a free river card with our 10 outs? Yes.

"We probably want to check call KQ,AQ/AA with the high spade blocker,under pairs like TT JJ and some draws like non nut flush draws(TJ,KJspades), bet with KK/AA/AQ non spades,sets and stronger draws like nfd/fd +gutter. "

This is very exploitative/sub-optimal as your cbetting range then basically contains no bluffs/low equity-hands but only strong equity/value hands. Not saying it's bad idea, but it's exploitable.

My thoughts on this:

1. If he's playing well, then his calling range MP vs UTG 3BB-open should be very narrow/quite strong. This fact alone makes us want to c-bet much less OOP on almost all boards.

2. A Q-high board like this should smash his range (AQo, AQs, maybe KQs, also his range is heavy on middle-pocket pairs like 88-TT(mby JJ) which are not folding to a cbet, as well as maybe 77 (probably not <=66, unless he's somewhat too loose or thinks you're bad or the rest of the players behind are bad/passive). This makes us want to cbet less.

3. And then we can even add the fact that the board is single-suited (somewhat coordinated) which favors the IP-player by a significant amount compared to a rainbow/dry flop. This also makes us want to cbet less.

To sum it up, I don't think you want to have a cbet range at all on this flop.

Any thoughts om preflop? Isnt 97s too weak to call bu vs 3bb co? Fold or 3b imo

Hey James, great video.

At 26:50, you 3bet ATo BTNvsCO. Is that a standard play for you? I think personally I rather 3bet a somewhat polarized range, like AQ+, and then some lower suited aces.

Great video. Love your detailed comments on how you build your ranges for the flops, very insightful and very easy to understand (because your great logical reasoning). so yeah learned a lot. love your voice too lol

#PokerIsHard

I do believe he's 3betting SBvsMP with JJ+ and AK. So we can imo discount JJ.

Villain is 31/24 over 350 hand sample (decent sample). That's pretty lose. Given his high VPIP (31), I think he's cold-calling in the SB here with a pretty wide range which includes A9s-AQs as well as A2s-A5s.

(J8s is maybe too optimistic, so in the below I have not included that in his range.)

The flop is very dry, thus I can assure you he's floating the flop with most Axs with BDF. Also KQs (in one of the 3 suits on the flop) he's for sure floating the flop with, because of BDF + 2 overs (and also backdoor-straight-draw).

Thus, on the turn, I believe his C/R range as a very minimum contains:

88,55,AsQs,AsTs,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s

Against such a range, assuming he shoves the given river (3h) with the whole range (which I think he does) we are good 36% of the time, and given the pot odds on the river, we need to be good +32% of the time to make money by calling.

I haven't even added KsQs in his range here, which is a hand I also believe he peels the flop with, and very likely also C/R turn with. Add that combo to his range, and we are good 42% of the time on the river.22 is simply too high up in our range to fold river against a loose opponent who is capable of c/r pretty wide on the turn (due to his 20% C/R turn stat over 350 hand sample). We don't even have the 2-spade.

I mean, if a spade had hit the river, it would had been easy fold. But this 3h is pretty blank, only As4s which completes (which is included in the above range).

Also we could probably fold AA on the river here for example, because thus we don't block for the 3 combos of 22 he has in his range. If we had the ace of spades, then it would be a trivial fold on the river, because we block so many of his semi bluffs.
But 22 without spade is too high up in our range to fold river. That's for sure, especially against a laggy villain like this.

My 2 cents:

Hand 1 is a very bad fold on the river. It's a snap call man, this guy can c/r so many flushdraws on the turn, and the river is completetly blank. He could even valueshove here with J8 imo.

Hand 2:

against a nit this is very good fold on the river indeed.

If villain bets AQ and KQ on the turn, then I think we have to call turn.

It's hard to put up a range on villain which we doesn't have at least 40% equity against. We only need 29%. However, this doesn't factor in the fact that he could barrel us off with AQ,KQ etc on blank rivers where we might have to fold and lose our 100% equity-share (against those hands).