PaaooW

It makes no sense calling with a hand that does not beat a bluff. Right?

Personal attacks about how someone looks like are lame.

Sulsky. I expressed myself bad when I wrote that my I have made a "conclusion", based on Janda´s book, "assumption" would have been a better choice of word. My approach when studying game theory, is that since no one knows the GTO solution for poker I am not drawing any conclusions at all about how GTO poker should be played. We all just assume and guess.

My assumption is that it is GTO to sometimes call 4-bets pre. Another assumption I have is that when stacks are medium deep (as in the hand example in OP) , this should happen more often than when the stacks are really deep and we can 5-bet fold. It also seems logical to me, that calling 4-bets pre when being in position (like in OP:s hand example) can be GTO because a 5 bet-shove removes the positional advantage we have.

I am a novice at game theory though, so if you are claiming something else, I am of course not in a position that I would, or should argue that you are wrong.

Sounds interesting, if you could recommend some material to study I would love to know about it. You can pm me if you want since it is of topic. Thank´s!

You seem to have good knowledge about game theory. May I ask you how you have learned it?

After having read Janda´s book, my conclusion is that it is GTO to sometimes flat 4-bets IP in this situation. Have I understood wrong?

Sure, if you want to play GTO poker, I believe that a mixed strat with AK is fine here (assuming you have a GTO range to begin with). It of course depends on what range you have.

The question of this thread though, is how we best exploit villain.

Dario. You claim that we should not bluff flop because OP often has a showdown hand that he will call with. My opinion is that this circumstance is the reason why we should bet with AK:s. They are making up a big portion of our range here.

Also, if we do not have a betting range on flop in these spots, villain can 4 bet the shit out of us pre, knowing he will see all turns with his showdown hands and draws post flop.

I would be very surprised if GTO poker would mean not to bet flop. You have understood it wrong, OP wants to exploit by checking, not play GTO.

He has a showdown range that he is checking with a plan to call with. Why would he all of a sudden bluff on turn? If he wants to bluff he is of course bluffing the flop.

I can not understand why you assume that he would rather put all his money in the pot over two streets instead of three streets? For you to throw balance and protection out of the window you have to have a very good reason and read to think so, right? How can you so strongly believe this if you "do not know what to make of his 4 bet range this deep."

How on earth can you be scared of one exact hand like "kj" when you are unsure of his 4 bet range? Why can he not have kq, kT or even k7? Why not QQ or JJ? Why not 89 of hearts?

I agree that he most likely has a showdown hand. Since he is overaggro he is probably betting this flop almost always with air, and since he checks he is trying to keep pot small. Therefore you should start bettting, because normally the best way to make a pot controlling opponent unhappy is to start betting right away so that you can bet more streets.

I am sorry but I am getting confused here (not trying to be a smartass), but to me there are some contradictions in what you are saying. First you do not know his range but still you claim that you would have bigger chance to get most money in by betting only two streets instead of three, and then you ask what to do on river which means that your hand was vulnerable and when you have vulnerable hands it should be better to bet early to protect your hand. You also say that there is a chance that he will check-raise bluff (which makes a bet on flop even better)

 Note that I am talking about "hand" now since balance is out of the window and not important.

If you play this guy that you never have to think about balancing your bluffs with value hands on flop against, and you believe that you will get more money into the pot if you check flop, at the same time as you do not fear bad turn cards or river cards that would make you or your opponent scared to put more money into pot, then of course the answer of what line is best to take already has been answered by yourself. I just believe that there are a few too many assumptions make, when you do not have a good idea of his 4 bet range.

You won because you had the best hand.

You should want to bluff this flop in practice, because as we can see you have AK:s in your range. 

Ok you were trying to exploit him, I understand. But since he is overly aggressive, is he not betting this flop with bluffs then? This should mean that you believe he is pot controlling, right? If so the best line must be to bet flop, turn, most rivers and let him check call with his medium strength hand. Also, if he check-raises this flop as a bluff sometimes (as you seem to believe is possible), then a bet is even better.

If your read is that it is easier to get most money in by over betting two streets, that line is of course better, but if that is the case you should not have felt a need to create this thread I assume? 

I also do not understand how you would be able to have such read, since you do not know how his 4 bet range looks like this deep? 

If yo do not bet AK on flop in this spot I believe that your flop betting range is too weak. Do not 3 bet and call a 4 bet with AKss pre if you feel a need to pot control on this flop.

Thank´s for the responses! As a matter of a fact I find game theory to be interesting to study and I plan to try to get good at it. 

In my mind it makes sense that if I am a beginner in a new game and have difficulties finding leaks in my opponent´s game it may be easier to use game theory to create lines. Like, defending my ranges at the threshold, betting with a polarized range, creating a pref flop range that covers most boards, aiming to bet next street with x percent of my range depending on bet size on earlier street, etc.

Sorry for the of topic but; I do not believe that many players in the world have been winning so consistent like you have for that many years. To me that is very impressing! What is your ratio playing/studying poker? 

If I would have checked this hand on flop I would have done so because of some read of villain. That read would decide how I would proceed.

Cliché: It depends.

Nice video! I believe that you are a genius and that beard you are growing makes you also look like one. Love it!

Yea, I missed KK, there you have three more value combos. My guess is that it is still not enough to cover for all bluffcombos though.

If you have exact ranges for you and your opponent you can just insert them in one of all them pokertools that is out there and get your questions answered.

I would not recommend you to draw vert strong conclusions about the outcome if you run a simulation for this hand though. This because the range you are giving your opponent is only a speculation at best, as it seems.

Good luck!

Check-fold river. You over-rep your hand if you bet.

You have a bluffcatcher and no reads so according to me, the only question of this thread is: "Does the player pool at these stakes underbluff or overbluff in spots like these?"

What is your flop raising range?

I don´t think that you are repping a flush with that raise, you are repping fullhouse plus. But since you most likely would not have check-called a set on flop I would not have believed you if I was the villain.

Only value hand I can see you (maybe) take this line with is 109 of clubs.

Bluff with your low pockets on flops that hits your range well, or when your pocket has a BD straightdraw. Like if you have 55 and the flop comes 964 r. 

If you have problems playing them post flop it is ok to stop opening small pockets from early position.

If you want to exploit, figure out if he takes the b-ck-b line with none premium strength hands or bluffs often and adjust by checking premium hands on turn and bluff more often on river. If you have no reads, defend your river-range at the minimum threshold.

He should almost never have a straight here. Bet bigger and do the same with your missed draws. If you do not have missed draws in your range here, make sure you will have it in the future.