
PAYnbHAPPY
2 points
I don't like the call pre-flop. I don't think that it could be +EV to call a Raise more than 3 BB's without Antes and Reads on villain. Especially when he's the Big Stack and you miss the Flop, facing three overcards most of the time and have to fold against his c-bet. Given that i can't see how you can fold a set there after you put so much money in the pot. The call pre-flop is imo more -EV in the long run than putting your money in with the set. Calling there pre, barreling without anything and then folding a set seem --EV to me.
April 8, 2014 | 2:10 p.m.
The play of NastyMinder looks reasonable to me. He can take a pot of 1.2 Mio. chips by betting 800K. That are not the best odds, but the hand is good to play for him. The Flop is totally dry and it's likely you missed it. In the case that it is the Sunday Million FT Bubble and you are very short, his fold equity is huge, as you aren't able to call light and you would almost never bluff back at him. If he gets called, he can get out of the hand easily, as your calling range should be very narrow, giving your stack size and the dry flop. He knows you are likely to be strong, holding QQ-AA, any Set, Top Pair or some mid-pairs. The only hands, he perhaps can bluff you off are the mid pairs. Therefore the K on the Turn is a good card for him. With checking the Turn, he indicates that he is not willing to bluff further on or he tries to trap you. After your decision not to shove on the flop, you should definitly check back the Turn and call the River.
imo 3-Bet/Fold and 3-Bet/Call aren't the best options to play in that spot. 88 is way too strong to 3-Bet/Fold, because villain is opening 100% of his hands and as the result shows, he 4-Bet shoved with 33. He knows that you have a hard time to call for all your chips, as long as you don't have the nuts and the third weak and short player is in. I expect more regs shoving there any pair for ICM reasons - even being so deep. If you hope that he folds against your 3-Bet, better 3-Bet with weaker hands, that are easy to fold against a shove. I also don't like 3-Bet/Call, as the variance is too high imo. You are facing a coin flip too often and bust out every second time. I try to avoid all-in fights with the Bigstack as long as the short-stack is in and unless i don't have a real big hand. I would call pre and play the hand post flop.
April 11, 2014 | 5:44 p.m.