Osterror
0 points
I just wanna say that we don't "know" he "always" has aces. Two very bad words: know and always. 140 hands is not enough at all to conclude that. I see nits every day shipping with something else for various reasons, even though their stats showed otherwise. He might decide you play too laggy now and punish you with broadways. He might be ending his session and is willing to gamble a bit. He maybe angry at himself playing too nitty and now gets brave. His wife may have shouted at him and he gets you guys for revenge. And the most simple reason: in 140 hands he may not have been dealt a single premium hand!!!
This is not relevant here given the stack sizes are still too big for it to matter. But at some point we get close to the equity where the KKds has close enough odds to get it in when you add in the fact that you cannot see his cards and with varying weight he might have something else.
We have 32.82% vs AA** here now, and would need his stack to be roughly 8.50 dollars to break even here, so if he was all in preflop we could call and break even if we indeed "know" he has aces. Make his starting stack 50bb's and i believe you can get it in getting 38% pot odds but putting some weight to non-aces, though.
May 7, 2013 | 9:14 a.m.
He did assume tight range, that shows in :3%. It means the range is only 3% including those other hands.
May 6, 2013 | 9:33 a.m.
I believe(d) he can also have a broadway hand where he often has a pair+wrap or KQ . Now I think naked AA is unlikely unless he misplays it by betting too much for no real reason I guess. Looking at the strong bet NFD gets more weight?
May 5, 2013 | 2:54 p.m.
BN: $14
SB: $25.93 (Hero)
BN raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, BB raises to $2.75, BN folds, Hero calls $2.25
May 5, 2013 | 1:48 p.m.
SB: $25.77
BB: $85.24
HJ: $29.04 (Hero)
CO: $25
Hero raises to $0.85, CO folds, BN folds, SB calls $0.75, BB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.90, SB folds
May 5, 2013 | 1:36 p.m.
Idk what he had cause I folded. I thought we are getting close to the price of just having to call. But maybe not just yet. Say I potted the turn, he donks the same way, and it's even cheaper. Could become a good reason not to fold since we are starting to get the price even if this was his one-time bluff of the night. Also he might just randomly realize his hand can only win by betting. Seen some poker on TV or something.
May 4, 2013 | 2:46 p.m.
CO: $23.80
BN: $40.12 (Hero)
SB: $15.35
BB: $13.75
UTG: $25.25
Preflop is CO limps, I pot, blinds and CO call. So 4-ways, single raised pot.
May 4, 2013 | 8:50 a.m.
March 28, 2013 | 11:38 a.m.
March 26, 2013 | 11:22 a.m.
March 24, 2013 | 11:51 a.m.
I seem to run into consistent trouble adjusting to super loose villain who calls and stabs a lot. They* do it rationally, though, thus exploiting some leak in my game. (they* = the ones who are not only loose but also stab immediately when I check somewhere.)
What is this leak and how should I adjust?
The way it goes:
He folds very little oop preflop, maybe only 10-15%.
He also folds to flop cbets little, say 20%.
This is where the problem starts. When I fire turn cbet they can still call, and seems like they have a marginal made hand or they have a non-nut bad draw. The thing is, they mix the river play donk potting or betting smaller for value and check-calling if they end up with a decent bluff catcher. It's not that frequent for a hero to have a value hand that can stand money going in on all 3 streets.
If I don't cbet on the flop they stab every single turn. If I don't cbet the turn they usually but not always stab the river.
So how do I adjust? Especially with my decent hands that are not worth 3 streets. Should I check some flops planning to raise turns? Check turns planning to call rivers? 3-barrel more? How about my air? Check flop or turn and give it to them? Feeling a bit frustrated here since I thought we should own these guys when we have position, but with clever betting they seem to try to steal every possible hand when I miss a bet.
This turn is a good example of the trouble you'd get into when you just call, so I didn't even consider that option here OTF- Not sure what is the etiquette here but maybe some ppl want results and now is an ok time? He had AA22 with nut flush draw and I actually manage to suck out both runs into 2 pair.
May 9, 2013 | 3:24 p.m.