OnlyTheNuts

I guess I can see why. :)

I'm no pro but I think checkraising flop might be interesting to get free stabs + make AJ type hands fold and possibly get it in on the flop when equity is still pretty good. If he checks back, you can be more secure about the strength of your ace as well. But betting or x/c is fine too I think. As played, I think I'm x/folding the river.

Haha. I really thought it was a good play. :)

Will do :)

This is going to be a messy reply. =)

I can have AJ here. I just flat it from the blinds vs lp most of the time. On the flop I might play it exactly the same. I think you say when the board pairs or an utter brick falls or an A, you're still calling. And then if you have the As you might push a club, right? I don't know if you got it from the hh but I checked the J on the turn and I'm always check calling when the board pairs. For the As, you only have 6 combo's of that hand, and you're folding the other 18 combo's of A9 and AJ when a club comes, so it's not happening all that often vs your made hands and I actually doubt it's a profitable play to make. You also forgot to include that you might have a ton of draws as well, which DO fold the turn on a brick. It's true I lose the hand when an overpair shoves on a safe card but having taken everything into consideration, I think it's still a winning play.

Basically I think when a club falls on the turn, I make enough made hands fold. And when a non club falls, not pairing the board, I make enough weaker hands and draws fold. That's what I'm trying to say when I think this play is profitable.

I might be barreling the river too fwiw. I think his range is any draw, any jack, any 9, TT. I think the overpairs, 2Ps and sets usually reraise those flops as do possibly the really strong draws. If I hit a club, I'm bluffing the made hands, if I hit nothing, I'm still barreling against his draws and weaker pairs, and I may or may not barrel the river too. You seriously call down light otr if it bricks two times?

I guess you're right James, being oop. In position I like to bluffraise otf with air though. If I have 'annoying history' with villain where I make his 3b life miserable raising flops smallish sometimes (like now), I think there might be more value in my original play vs just calling. He might ship it in with air/draw sometimes, and he's not just giving up his weaker aces. However, there was no such history and I'm OOP which narrows my range quite a bit, so you're right.

edit: am I wrong thinking like this?

About what I said earlier regarding check/shoving the turn on this particular runout, wouldn't it be better to just x/c the turn since no worse hands call? Or is it more important to not let him realize equity?

You're saying I don't want to fold out the naked 10s-Ks since they might be barreling on a s turn?

I figured I might get called by worse since it looks so polarized but maybe that was just a mistake, following LockeDown's logic. I like protecting the lower pairs as Daz pointed out too, so next time I think I'll x/c x/shove most turns.

To answer your first two questions: weird overpairs as James Hudson said, AJ that's maybe scared of a c/r on the turn, kj/qj that's not sure if it should vb on the turn and now feels secure, TT going for thinner value. I don't know anything about villain's tendencies but I think it's a weird spot to bluff since he already gave up on the turn and he doesn't really rep anything strong. I just think that usually villain gives up on those riverspots when checking back the turn although I could be wrong. But personally, I need a read to call on the river, not vice versa.

To answer your third question: I don't need to have bluffs, you're right about that. I guess that doesn't come into it.

To answer your fourth question: I think it may be profitable. I figure with those stats (and maybe it's premature) there's a strong possibility he's barreling weak + when I'm virtually unknown myself, I suspect him to give me extra credit and he may even lay down the overpair + against regs I don't mind making history where I'm aggressive. I think the regs give you credit first and then (possibly) start calling down lighter, which I try to be aware of. If he calls down light or if he calls through with the overpair, I make a note and try to go for value against him since I suspect him thinking I'm a maniac. I only play 6 tables and I'm trying to be aware of those things and incorporate it into my game. But at the same time I have to admit I'm not playing way more agressive against regs first as a general gameplan or anything, I try to have balanced ranges.

All that said, it could be premature with only 70 hands on him. I honestly don't know about that. But in general I like to play back against the aggressive ones b/c it's profitable. Ofc you're aware of that and maybe it just is premature. But I thought the "threshold" for vpip/pfr was <100 hands and for 3b I don't know but intuitively I think the stat "solidifies" pretty quick.

Thanks for the reply. On 2), I don't see how I'm protecting my weaker range with checking aq since I'm never c/c with it. So I don't really get what you're getting at. I am however convinced now checking was the right play on the river because a 9 and TT probably don't fold often enough, there's prolly no small pairs in his range and I have sdv. On 3) My plan was to minc/r a lot of turns + shove rivers, I actually wanted him to barrel a lot on the turn. I might be misapplying a concept here but what other part of my calling range am I going the bluff the turn? I need some bluffs in there, right? I figured AQ was good for that. That aside, there wasn't any history so I figured I had a lot of FE anyway. I had a plan, man. (y)

Thanks, Hustla. I understand everything you said except for (1) why it's fine to call pre when it's only a small sample on those stats whilst on a larger sample you prefer 4b and (2) what you exactly meant by checking aq on the river to protect the weaker parts of my range and (3) how this flop exactly hits his bluffing 3b range well?

Thanks for the input, guys.

NoHubris: I flat my entire continuing range on the flop as I think raising on such a dry flop in itself looks kinda bluffy. On the turn however, I think it looks more believable/stronger and there's more money in the pot, which I obviously like.

nma: I understand I have sd value but I wanted him to not only fold AK but anything weaker than jacks, really. If he hit a random 9 or a 6 I actually expected him to fold. There's hardly a draw in my range on the flop and I'm not valuebetting anything weaker than TT on that board there (I don't have 9's in my range), and I kinda expected he'd come to that very same conclusion. And he totally didn't.

Maybe not really worth a bump but I just want to say @Erdian: I now understand your point of not getting value on a 4th heart on the river if he checks back. I misunderstood that. I also think checkraising the turn becomes extra viable if you have history of giving him a lot of hard times. I have to admit I don't know what the most profitable line is. :)   

You didn't agree with my analysis in the other hand (Jh on the turn)? I basically said there was very little value in betting and that I thought it's better to avoid bloating the pot in that spot. 

You're trying to get value on 4th hearth by checkraising the turn? :D Only better hands call imo + AQh so I don't like that play. Betting the pot commits us when we don't want to be committed if he raises, I don't see villain bluffing much in that spot. I like c/c :).

edit:  Considering getting value on a 4th heart: what heart is the villain going to continue with? AQh, I don't see anything else. And then there's sets, AJ and flushes. I think I make a good case for the c/c.

Do you expect to get three streets of value against AQ on this board and is it reasonable to assume villain calls pre with offsuit aces < ATo? If not, I think it's better to c/c the turn because AQ/AT possibly bets for protection/pays of a river bet and hero has the nut flush draw which we don't want to get blown off of when villain is in top of his range. We also don't have to protect our hand against his weaker holdings.

Edit: I'm not saying this is the solution, I just prefer to say what I think because I'm here to learn.

Thanks, Daz!

Could somebody please (briefly) explain to me why betting the turn is the right play? I'm trying to figure it out but I can't. Thanks.