Notinmylifetime

19:00 AcKx

Can you explain why you believe you are getting the right odds on turn? You mention you think his range is only flushes and some sets. So we can only win if we hit a flush. If we give him the range you show in flopzilla I think this call loses money.

We have fewer than 9 outs since he has 2 clubs a decent amount of the time. If we assume we will get his whole stack every time we are getting 5-1 odds. but assuming on average 1 out is gone we have a 8/44 chance of making our flush which is about 18%. This would be enough under these assumptions.

However we clearly wont always get his stack if we make our flush. If he has a set and we hit he will likely Xb river. We could donk shove but in that case he may fold (he will definitely fold >0% frequency). The same goes if he has a flush.

It is already fairly close if we assume we will always get his whole stack and we assume we have 8 outs on average (he probably has a flush more than he has a set (3 combos of sets, 5 of flushes) so we actualyl have fewer outs than 8. So having fewer outs and the fact that we wont always get his whole stack surely turns this call into a loser if your range for villains flop raise is correct.

14:30 88

I would expect weak players to almost always bet flop vs missed Cbet if they have TP. I would also think it is very likely they would bet TT/JJ type hands. So I think once they Xb flop their range is actually much weaker than you give them credit for. If I am correct I think betting large in this spot will just get you a massive amount of folds.

10:00 J9s
You mention it is good that the blinds are tight because you will face fewer cold 4Bs when you 4B. I agree. But the same goes for flatting, you are less likely to face a squeeze if they are tight. So is this really a good argument for 3betting over calling?

I would see this as more of an argument for flatting personally as the risk of getting squeezed is usually much more relevant than the risk of getting cold 4bet. Even agressive players wont cold 4B much more than 3% of the time, so the risk of this happening is fairly limited in either case. The difference in Sqz % between a tight player and a more agressive one is much larger imo.

The previous was about the preflop call.

On the flop I dont understand how jamming would be +EV if he is guaranteed to have a set. You are about 25% to win against a set. I dont think there is close to enough money in the pot to compensate for losing 3/4 times.

A7s 5:50

Is this even close? To me that seems like a very easy snapcall given your pot odds, as well as the decent playability of your hand.

About the 76hh question: If we did not know the opponent is going to stab very often (I didnt see the video being referred to), do we still want to go for a Xr? The same reasons that apply to the Xr argument also apply to just Cbetting out ourselves. We still have many more combos of value and his range is essentially capped.

I have to be honest, this was unwatchable because of the audio being out of sync.

Hahaha this was actually one of those wtf moments. Didnt know yet when I posted the question. But that kind of proofs my point. You will see this on occasion making bluffing worse. Is it still worth it when you know this will happen some % of the time.

29:00 The As8 hand. Besides the flushes do you expect him to call anything else? I am always surprised when I make a bluff like this and then just get snapped by ha hand like KQ or even AJ (I play 100NL reg tables). Do you think these are just random calls they sometimes make (like 10% of the time or something like that)?

Like what would your estimate of his range be in this spot and what do you think he would fold from that range?

At 24:11 you have J9 on a 875hh flop. What is your reasoning for not going pot here since I imagine you have a lot of draws your range on this flop, just like the AT hand?

At 10:27 you are playing a hand with AT. You bet pot on turn mentioning this is a wet board and you like to bet big in those situations because you have a lot of draws in your range.

I get your reasoning for wanting to bet large but with a hand like AT, isn't this turning the hand into almost sort of a bluff this way? Or am I looking at this wrong?

Do you think AT is strong enough to do this is basically my question. Or is it such that if he folds hands that are beaten by AT he is folding such a large % of his range that you make a ton of money with those draws?

If so can you break down his perceived range (before the turn bet) as well as your betting range?

Thanks!

Wouldnt QJ be a profitable flat BU v CO?

Can you elaborate on this a bit further? I understand pio uses multiple options (it will always do this when given the option since an option always has a value of =>0 meaning it will always use all bet sizes unless you enter like a million different ones.

In reality for us humans though splitting our ranges and remembering everything is not an easy thing to do. So do you also split those ranges like pio into 3 different sizings or do you stick to 1/3 pot or check?

Samu hits it on the head. Most players get raised a few times in a short time span and get paranoid. Most live players are so passive they simply have it when they do raise. When things are not going your way you can get raised a lot while them always having it anyways.

Would you have room for a 100NL player?

I agree and had not thought of this.

One issue I have with your fractional 3B range is that it goes against what you say earlier about keeping it simple (I agree with the 1/3 pot keeping it simple by betting whole range). 3Betting say T8s at 35% is going to be just as hard imo as splitting a checking and betting range into similar frequencies.We are human after all :(

I do agree that this is better than having a pure 3betting strategy (no mixed strategy with certain hands) but it may be too hard to pull of in practice for humans. We could get a random number generator but when you multitable that might take too much time.

Are you using the preflop solver for anything besides pure HU situations (like BB v CO open, or any other situation where everyone but 2 players have folded)?

It is pretty much useless in the SB vs a Bu open right? As their is currently no way to know what an equilibrium between BU/SB/BB would be (or if it even exists).