Adam Wheeler

[Dude, they all know a small sample isnt enough to get meaningful stats about frequencies on certain actions. They are just saying that by observing how your opponent plays, even if for few hands, you can gather a lot of relevant information about his overall tendencies. Thats it man. Chill.]

Than i misunderstood, and on this statement they are totally right.

For all you "3 hands is enough to have a sick read"

In Mathematics of Poker (MoP, page 65), the authors give an example of 1,000 full ring hands gathered from an opponent. 121 hands are played from UTG, with a raise first in (RFI) of 10 percent.

They write:

A 95% confidence interval is that he plays roughly between 4% and 16% of hands.

Confidence intervals (CIs) were explained earlier in the book (page 35) when discussing win rates. The authors state:

This does not mean that his true win rate is 95% likely to lie on this interval. The confidence interval is all values, that if they were the true rate, then the observed rate would be inside the range of values that would occur 95% of the time. *There is inherent variability when gathering data. Sample sizes are important. Your HUD is a tool; it's not an excuse to make bad plays.*

OP talk about low fold to 3Bet on 32 hands...honestly i would like to come with a bettre answer than "LOL"
You talk about HUSNG...?!? Are you trying to compare to different dynamics based on different strategy ? I dont see where you want to lead us here ?

"If you're not getting any informations from sample such that, just str8 up ignoring it, you're leaving tons of money at tables bro."

No. Absolutely not. I think you're kidding yourself.

It's 32 hands guys. Forget about stats.

you wrote "(besides the fact that most of these guys DON'T know what they're talking about at all!!!)"

Matt Berkey is probably the best live poker cash game player at this very moment.

If a 7-9-T-Q fall river are you guys firing ?

Don't look into stats it's 32 hands, it worth s**it.

Matt Berkley and Christian Soto made a lot of comments about it on an other poker forum. Their strategy seems to be rooted in Equity Capitalization. They clearly stated that both were different strategy.

Not it's not the same. Some mid to high stakes players speak of it in terms of 2 different strategy.

With no info call.

@ismaithliom

HH buy ;)

Don't forget that those are guidelines mostly to help you not making mistakes. The more your ranges are tight the less you'll get lose in some spots but you should always start from default but deviate from it depending on table dynamics otherwise you'll leave some money on the table.

Don't be obsessed about it, feel the dynamics, you'll be a much harder player to play against.

Unless you have really good reasons to flat AA in the CO (BUT 3Bet a lot/squeeze and or SB/BB) i would raise with AA here. Tough spot Turn.

You shouldn't worried about that. It will always depend on the players at your table and the dynamics YOU create. The idea is driving the action to get action.

When SB call here his Range his capped. Unless you have infos that he could do that wiht the topside part of his range i put him on Broadway Connectors, Suited Connectors and PP below 9.

Flop is perfect and you can certainly make him call with practically all his mid PP, Gutters and Back door draws.

On Turn i think that your decision should be based on his Bluff frequencies here and the density of his drawing part in his range. If you think he got more bluffs than value hands that we beat call.

On river all his draws are busted and since the only hand that beat us is 44, it is such a small part of his range that i gladly call.

Did he show QJ-KJ or worst 2 pairs ?

By the way you analysis is pretty fine i think.

Let's agree on one thing, to actualize the equity of one specific hand, there is no other way to do than going to a showdown. And when we actualize that equity, we than have our value for the hand.

If this is true, than the equity of our hand pre flop doesn't matter. Of course some hands are better to realize equity than others. AA will always be better than 72o to realize equity at showdown. But if we hold 2 napkins on the CO and raise 3 limpers, make BUT, the blinds fold and the limpers, who cares about pre flop equity with our hand, it really doesn't matter.

Also Expected Value and Equity are 2 different things.

@6seven8

Well we have been thought the wrong way and conditioned as a poker culture. Equity pre flop doesn't really matter since we have to see a Flop, a Turn and a River. I think you pointed out this in you're previous post.

"We are conditioned to think about hand in a very black or white sense, where it's either for Value or in Bluff. But the truth of the matter is that a lot of situations are very grey, where we're betting for protection or protecting our range or betting to fold out equity and if we talk about specifically pre flop, the reason there is no Value pre flop is when you raise 76s pre flop from MD, for example, no will ever argue that we raise 7 high for value, so why we are raising ? That further goes into understanding that no hand has value pre flop because why we would raise 7 high ? And if we take that further than no hand has value until showdown. And this is something Phil Galfond said 2 or 3 years ago. And if we take that one step further again, than we should just play every hand as a bluff until showdown and than we run into value at this point."
- Christian Soto

@disharmonist

I dont see how you can actually consider that money put into pot by 2 players still in action is dead money. That is not dead money. And if i am wrong in the comprehension i would love that you enlighten me about the concept.

When we are at 42% V is at 58%. Every part of his range that he negate through folding when we bet is boosting our equity since its a part of the pot he abandoned and thus a part of the pot we took. It's not about dead money but rather Fold Equity.

The more V fold the more we gain, and that is why when a player call a lot pre flop but fold a lot post flop we want to make bigger open since the shares he'll fold on flop will be greater in terms of money. But all that is related to Fold Equity.

EDIT : Mathematic of Poker.
What is the MoP book you refer to ?

All this doesn't matter if we dont go to showdown. Value is widely misunderstood. We have been tought the wrong way because of televised poker when we see % between 2 players pre flop. Thats why Phil Galfond said "No hand has value until showdown".

Where did you find dead money in this spot ?

Dead Money:
''Refers to money in the pot other than that which has been contributed by players still active in the hand such as the money put in by players who have since folded''

Because of Fold Equity. When V make an action he got a particular range at this very moment. A range is composed of multiple hands that have specific equity of the pot now, and going further in the hand. Of course as a great poker mind said "No hand has value until showdown" but those hands have equity share. If you shove, and lets say you got 42%, there is some hands in V range that'll fold and thus your gaining, in a sense, this equity because he is folding it. the more he fold the better, you see the logic. But sometimes the V range is so narrow that he is not folding anything than you got no fold equity.

I would tend to think that everything that beat you River in V's range, 3-bet OOP in this spot Preflop. But since he is a rec player he could convince himself that calling in the worst possible position in Poker with KQ, AJ or TT, JJ even AA is a good idea. If the draw wouldn't complete River i would snap call since this is a move you'll see often from rec players with busted draws but here i think i never fold vs. that particular type of player.

Make* not Malentendu :)

@6seven8

What bluffs still in V range River ?

If V put Hero on busted draws does he bet this sizing here ?

If V want value from weaker Aces does he bet this sizing ?

If he is targeting under PP (mid+) does he bet this sizing ?

But in the mean time if he is bluffing his line is so strong that the sizing malentendu sense, but does he have bluffs ?

@Aggroshooter

I don't think V is betting that big when X to on River with Ak-Aq-Aj. I think he is purely in value here that beat all TP.

I think if he got Ak-Aq-Aj here he is betting a lot more smallish for several reasons.

Re-EDIT : since i am on my cell phone everything is so clunky that I'm maybe off a bit, I'll redo all of this tonight. But sure thing the play Is really close to beeing break even.

EDIT : In fact If V re-raise with OverP also here and fold AA-KK-QQ to your shove and only calling with Sets and Nstr8 and OESD+GS TT+JJ you need him to fold 3% of the original te-raising range. So Yeah it's really close.