Nanstations

I disagree. youre right in saying that button is not incentivised to barrel many Ax on the turn, but likewise we are not incentivised to call them. Not to mention that hero has less Ax pre flop to begin with. villain has more A2, A8 and A3 than us.
Would you call A9-AJ or A6-7 on the turn if you were hero? (Assuming no flush draw).

I think your logic on the turn is overly focused on how to prevent losses and neglecting focus on how to maximise earnings. Ive had a lot of problems in the past about obsessing over negative outcomes and giving up EV as a result. I think you could benefit from a more expanded, objective reasoning on the turn.
You're far up your range and your hand wants to get value. You're massively ahead of his flop calling range. The way you played your hand is the way you would play something like AQ or K9. If you get raised that's ok :) not going to happen often and if it does, that's ok too. You will gain EV in the longrun by betting turn

I don't think you can find a fold without the Q of diamonds you need to be good what like 30-35% of the time?

I think checking or betting on the turn is both ok. Arguments for checking is that the 9 is a terrible card for your exact hand and his calling range in the flop improves massively. It could benefit from some pot control

I think J5 should definitely bet. It can benefit loads from protection denying equity to lots of hands and getting value from second best 8x ect. I'd be way more inclined to put 8x and pp into my checking range. And I agree river is a call. Most better jx don't bet for value/ get turned into bluffs

Why does his range gain equity/ev on the A? Neither players has many Ax by the river with this line. His exact hand gains a bunch of eV, however he holds the A of hearts, blocking the majority of villains weaker A high double barrels that might call this shove. As for range vs range, villain has more Ax. I imagine this river is a pure check unless hero has a strong read that villain's calling range will include many 8x, 99-KK.
I suspect 5nl regs way underbluff in which case exploitatively this play makes sense. However you do lose value on opponents bluffs. If villain has a hand like QJs they can easily fire again blocking Ax combos.
Secondly by taking this line you become very exploitable, and you only need to get called once for a perceptive villain to pick up on your strategy. They will value bet more thinly/ bluff you more frequently when you don't lead river and overfold river losing you tons of value in the longrun

I don't think this is a good spot for an over bet. You capped yourself on the turn, and the river is a brick. When you overbet the river you don't rep much. Villain likely put you on a missed flush draw and hero called you. I think sizing up flop when you have a massive nut and range advantage is better and checking down once you turn showdown value. Overbetting turn on a brick is a far better strategy and one that would have won you the hand in this spot. Hope this helped :)

Fold river every single time. Everything he raised you with is beating you there. He's never betting a missed flush draw with that size

Take environment is* astronomical

Good fold on river i believe. Loose call pre I think. Rake environment isn't astronomical I would do as little marginal cold calling pre as possible even in position unless you believe to have an enormous post flop edge

Utg likely is not raising 3.5x then calling 16BB 3bet from SB with 89s/87s. You'll get tons of value from 99-QQ that fall in love with their overpair

Shove every day. Sucks when you lose

Great video as always man.
I'm very very late to the party but I was thinking, you know how you say you were surprised that the Ax of club combos bet the river in the first hand where you had 44? Could it be that, because you are expected to bet Ax of clubs at a very high frequency on that turn, the blocker effect is made redundant? I would assume that the blocker effect would only be valid if they were in your checking range. This means that the unpaired Ax of club combos unblock your A high checkbacks that will fold to the river bet, which slightly increases the EV of bluffing them. At least this is what makes sense to me.

Fantastic videos bro. Big fan

Cheers for the reply and advice man. Much appreciated

So is losing money when calling 3bets normal then? As long as its less than a -250BB winrate? Thanks for the reply

If it works it works :)

Nice video man,
I have a few questions on the Pio work of the first hand. I didn't quite understand the reasoning behind why Pio doesn't like block betting that turn. Are you saying that because your range is capped he can afford to overbet and not be too worried about better continues? And why did you chose not to include like a 2/3 - 3/4 sizing?
Also do you think that on the turn, Pio doesn't raise A9 but raises Q9 because A9 blocks favourable continues like AK?

Ciao Francesco,
I wanted to ask you about cold calling and then calling again to a squeeze. I see lots of regs do that and I'm starting to wonder if it's a profitable decision, and if so, with what hands. Just to give you an example, I see people flatting in the small blind with a suited broadway and then call the BB 3bet, sometimes even when the button folds. Would be great to have your opinion.
Thanks and great work man

Concise, eloquent, great content. Amazing video man

That would be amazing Francesco. I feel like there isn't much material that goes in depth into why solvers suggest the things they do, especially bet sizings. Will be looking forward to this video.
All the best

Grande Francesco :)
Very good videos. Love this series, been very helpful.

I'm a 24/20

I'd say call. There are few realistic value combos villain has on the river. TT and 99 3bet pre often. I can see his flatting range on the button holding more T9s, QJs, maybe 78s. I'd like to add to RoyOne's work that villain has a fair amount of bluffs on that river that you can defend A2

I think you played fine man. Mixing in check-calling and raising flop is fine but I think you prefer to check call this combination.
I did a little equilab work and put the tightest range villain could be willing to go all in on the flop in my opinion:
JJ+, 55, 33-22
you have 52.06% equity against that range. So raising flop with the intention to shove / call a shove should be about break even. Giving a more realistic range which will probably look weaker in game should be a profitable play.

That being said I don't think you want to bloat the pot too much too often on the flop which is why a check-call is reasonable too. Your hand has enough showdown value that it doesnt necessarily have to be played so aggressively.

I suspect we can 4bet bluff a little more frequently, and possibly even opt for larger sizings. I also suspect that the average player plays quite timidly in 4bet pots, and so maybe you can be a little more aggressive postflop taking advantage of your strong perceived range to apply pressure on his wider calling range.
These are all speculations :) but I think they make sense

Very tough spot man. So annoying :) I don't think we'd expect any 4tabler at 200nlz to be bluffing with that sizing right? I think you're correct in assuming his range is really strong. Might be a sad fold.

Also if he bet flop, would you have called that turn? If so, then why fold river?

That's a very exploitative fold you're making. Top pair has to be at least a two street hand otherwise youre overfolding, right? Opponents can exploit you by bet-bet-betting too frequently. I know that at 5nl you don't have to worry too much about balancing your strategy but I think it's still valid.