Nagelring

He basically said that he had Th9h or slow played 55, the only which make sense to me.
And it is not that big of an overbet. Would not do the math now but for me its a call, his flushdraws and KT have missed and he could have some worse hands he shoves for value like KK, AA or 7h8h.

Don't hate the play but my reasoning would be to fold out better flush draws as well :)
Hard to say if you loose value when you can take down the pot with 5high, my questions would be:
Q1: Is this the most profitable play in a vacuum?
Q2: What to do with your whole range? Do you want to check jam other hands as well?

So the different options are:

a) donkbet: interesting if you want to develop a balanced donking range
b) check/call: not my cup of tea, better check/call with Khigh or Qhigh Flushdraws to get value from worse draws when you hit
c) check/jam: not my play either, seems to my like an old school overplay
d) check/raise and jam turn: would be my favorite, you create fold equity and get calls from hands on the flop (your missed value) and get them to fold ott

Curious to hear other opinion on that.

Weird line from villain, here is my view of his range on various streets:

PF: superwide, 40%-50%, with a minraise strategy even more maybe.

F: after Flop check back he is pretty much capped, can't see him 2P+ checking, so SDVish hands !?

T: Kx,Qx,JJ,TT, all kind of draws

R: after his raise ?? Maybe AQ, QJ although its a tough raise as you can have all good stuff in your range. So either he is capped at AQ and it is debatable if you get a call from that, or he is turning a weak made hand into a bluff or he has chosen a weird line with flopped 2P or a spiked set ott.

in any of these cases a call is better than a raise :)

Some thoughts:

PF: Flat the squeeze to let the fish stay in the pot is at least an option worth considering.
F: Think shove is fine. You can shove all ott and try to get stacks in vs a worse overpair.

For how to play your range in this spot its prolly best to construct the range for 4betting vs a reg and a cold calling fish. Maybe you have not a big 4bet bluffing range here !?

Given the odds you get ott you need quite exactly 30% equity vs his range.
Here is a link to the PPT Simul of his estimated range and your equity.
You have barely enough to call, but it is a high variance and low profit situation the rake not included. Imho if you think he can x/shove wider with more 2P and Combo-Draws than go ahead and make the call otherwise fold.

Yeah, fold pre, if you have a 3bet or fold strategy in the SB you can 3bet KQo vs a 30%+ Range no other things included. But i doubt utg is so wide.

ok, i'm not exactly sure of the terminology, but in HM2 there is a "SB coldcall vs EP" stat so i assume we can say coldcall in this case.
The gap between Vpip and Pfr (13% points) in villains stats has to come from either lot of limping or a wider coldcalling range. Together with the other stats i would dare to say he defends his blinds wider than other player with more broadway stuff and suited connectors and Axs as recreational player love to do. This means there are worse Qx combos in his range we can value bet against.

ugly spot, here just some thoughts:

PF: i would go slightly on the larger side with my resteal with 20kr-22kr
F: to give advice it is vital to know at least the postflop tendencies from the BB, is he very aggro with his loose range or more solid, a fit or folder or some station? Maybe that would be my set of strategies >>

a) vs very aggro: close the eyes, x/c down and hope the hand stands the showdown
b) vs station: bet on all 3 streets but find a fold vs a raise
c) vs fit or folder: go for 1-2 streets max, maybe Flop bet, Turn ch and River Blockbet !?
d) vs solid guy: start with ch/c the Flop and go from there, this texture hits his range quite good with lots of Pairs, Sets, Pair+Draws, 2Pairs, and decide on various Turncards what to do.

First hand:
Your math seems to be right, just compare your actual equity with your break even equity you need offered from the pot odds. In your case you absolutely have to take rake into consideration, if it is 5% uncapped than you have to subtract it from your expected value at the end.
But you also have to consider what will happen on various river cards. When you hit your Flush can you get payoff? What about a board pairing flush card which also gives your opponent a Full House? So doing the complete and correct math will take a bit longer, basically you have to make an EV Calculation for all river situations and sum up the expected value vs his range.

Second hand:
If you give utg a range like TT+ and AQ+ imho you are better of folding your hand, because you have very poor equity, are often dominated and will face some reversed implied odds situations. If the MP player is a total fish and utg a poor player maybe you can afford it as you have position and you playing deep vs him.
Your math for the turn is right, when you have 10% chance to hit your hand, than you have to get at least 10x from your investment back.
In this case the pot is 173€ and it cost you added 35€ to call this means you need
35/(35+173)*100% = 16.8% Eq to make the call even
To get the added sum you need from your opponent when you hit the straight:
0.092(173€) - 0.908(35€) + x =0
x = 31,78€ - 15,916€
= 15.86€ (the amount you have to win on the river to justify your call wo rake consideration

15.86€ + rake from the pot after turn call =15.86€ + 0.05(208) = 26.26€

Any additional money you get in after hitting your straight is not bothering so we can neglect paying rake :)

So if you can make the call and get another 2/3 pot valuebet called on the river you net a solid plus in the hand as a gutshot artist.

Not sure how the hand fits in with the described problem vrs loose aggro players but i will just comment on your play:
PF: fine with me although i can see me 3betting a bit more like 8.5-9 bb
F: Without any infos on the BB i just muck it here, he has lot of 99+ and AQ, KQs hands in his range so i would assume his donkbet is rather strong and designed to build the pot and not try to steal it.

note: when posting such a shorthanded situation with limited sample size of hands it makes imho sense to give added infos like limit, site, your stats from this short session ect.

If the Co poster is a fish than i would concentrate getting max value out of him when considering the best line.

PF: fine

F: Some options, i think either donk, x/c or x/r has their merits. When the fish is a stationy type than donkbetting and getting 3streets/stack from him seems reasonable, when he is a fitorfolder than your x/r comes in handy if the history between you and the BTN will influence his decisions.

Default would prolly be to just x/c the flop and decide on various turn cards what to do.

Considering his wide coldcalling Range and his weak betsizing i would valuebet the river.
He can have some worse Qx, PPs below the Q or some weired stuff like A3 with busted FD.

For valuebetting the river it is fine that you can have lots of busted FDs in your range so he can talk himself into herocalling. I would bet bigger like 2/3-4/5 pot for that reason.

But if this guy will check shove you i think you better fold :)

For my understanding:
You can vary:
a) your cbet size
b) your cbet frequency

There are different board types like(example):
1) heavy (AKQr), medium(JT7r), light (952r) which factor the ranking of the cards
2) wet(JT8tt), semiwet(T94tt), semidry(AT5r), dry(A92r) which factor the suitedness and connectivity of the cards

So you can classify any board given these adjectives and go from there.

In general:
1) Your cbet size should be higher on wet boards cause you have to protect more against hands
you beat
2) Your cbet frequency depends on how the actual board favours your PFR range (like AK5r) or
the PFC calling range (like 568r)
3) There are far more factors to consider like your opponents tendencies, your image, history,
position and stuff

First i would like to give some food for thoughts on the preflop decision:

Strategy 1: limp along, create a multiway pot vrs fishes with a good implied odds hand
Strategy 2: isoraise big to get HU vrs UTG and take away the pot on Flop or Turn
Strategy 3: isoraise small (your choice) to just pot sweeten and prevent a big isoraise from
some of the players behind

For me with the CO behind i would consider S1 & S3 > S2, cause the CO player don't let you get in a HU spot too often and your hand has not a lot playability oop.

Flop:

Strategy a: x/f and next hand
Strategy b: cbet & done
Strategy c: cbet & barrel a lot on T & R
Strategy d: x/r vrs CO
Strategy e: x/c vrs CO

IMHO:
Sa, Sc, Se > Sb > Sd, cause you will not get a fold on your cbet very often and you should be prepared to fight for the pot on t and r. A x/r vrs Co would be not good with your hand as you maneuver yourself in a tough spot with little help to come if he calls the xr.
X/c would exploit the tendency of your opponent to attack missed cbets ip but would only be my top choice when he will slow down on t/r after you x/c the Flop.
Cbet for thin Value/Protection is ok, but on good turn cards you should barrel through as Co range should be pretty wide and weak if he flats your cbet.

Hello jessie727,

just some random thoughts for this spot:
1) Villain tends to be a very aggro guy and decided to just flat your open raise. So i would assume he has a pretty wide and weak range
2) Your bet/3bet ott looks super strong and while you protect yourself against semibluff hands you get all the bluffs to fold from your opponent.
3) Your opponent can def have the tendency to attack with very little equity on T/R if you will show some weakness.

Conclusion for me: Vrs this villain i would be more inclined to call his raise ott and check all rivers to him. On flush river i would x/c and on blanks i would x/r to give him a chance to spazz out with weak hands and max my value.

Just pm me, maybe i can help you :)

hello, pls add me to the study group.
I play plo25-plo100
Skype: Nagelring77

i assume you have NL backround?

If you get 3bet on the flop you are putting the rest in, you are commitung yourself with the CR, a range from villain who cb/gii on this flop is like: Top2+,Wrap,2P+SD,OP+SD and you have decent equity against it. You just have to realize that you flopped really good against the loose ranges of the 2 player.
Its open for debate wether its best to ch/c oderx/r cause this fish is in the pot, glad to here some other opinions on that. But for me XR stackoff on this board vrs this villains and this cbet size is gonna be ok.
Just an advice: For plo its better to think in terms of equity not outs. You cannot avoid using Equity Software like PPT and a good starting point would be to analyse the flop equities given your hand and the range we put villain on.

PF: easy call in the BB for me, you are getting a good price and you don't have to make a set to win the pot postflop, your FD is often good, your kicker can give you added straight possibilities and your overpair is often good to win at SD on dry boards.

Folding in the SB is ok if you are not that confident in your postflop play and villain is aggro/good bu closing the action in the BB you are better calling and play some poker postflop :)

PF: either way is fine for me, flatting keeps the Co in the pot and thats what i want to prefer if he is really sticky/bad postflop, 3betting is good as you push your edge pre and would be my weapen of choice if the BTN is overplaying in 3bet pots or spazzes out preflop with 4b gii light.

F: think your hand is strong enough to CR vrs a weak cbet, you have nutouts when behind and most likely you are ahead anyway. But the most basic stuff you achieve by x/ring:

1) Create fold equity > keeping your opponent from realizing his equity in the pot
2) Create an easy to play situation for you as you can shove all turns when called > realizing your equity

T: as played you don't need to pot it, you have the nutstraight on a rainbow board, if you want to lead i would be more inclined to make a smaller bet to induce action or check to him if he barrels/bluffs a lot. Donkpotting is like screaming to everybody: NUUUUUUTSTRRRRRRRRAIGHT!!! ANYBODY WILL COME ALONG? :)

@ AF3 Sound for me that the definition of R includes also the amount of the pot we gain by folding Villains equity. Thats kinda new for me, i was just referring to the R as a factor which can help me to see how often i can realize only my own equity, so learned somthing new :)

As a small stakes player i used R till now only as a rough practical guidance to be aware of in game. So defending the blinds with weak hands for example with great pot odds can be a mistake vrs a very aggro guy barreling much but a good thing against a passive opponent.

But i never used it for calculating my R > 1 and lets say have a situation where my Pot Odds would not suffice for a call pre but i will compensate postflop from a guy who folds too much from his R.

Just for the sake of understanding, are the examples halfway right?

would be folding this:

a) on iphone you have no HUD and no notes and so i would prefer to be significant tighter than usuall
b) the 22 and the FD parts of your hand can bring you in ugly spots especially mw, cause everybody want to peel pre vrs ipad/iphone you can assume it will get called ;)
c) this is more a late posi and hu hand where your sets and the fd will have more value and you can use the TT blocker better for repping straights

I really don't know if i'm skilled enough to debate this concept, but i can try:

How is that true?
--Just take the no limit Nuts/Air game, and then the "R" of our air should be infinite.

1)Realizing Air is pretty much getting villain to fold his equity not to get our own equity to the River or Showdown.
2) Damn hard to have 0% Equity in NHL on the flop with a hand and impossible to have 0% Equity with a range, that changed on the turn but to declare NLH as a Nuts/Air game is imho not reasonable for discussing R

How is that true, too?
--Whenever we check/fold, we realize (much less) than half of our equity.

Whenever we ch/f in NLH i assume we do it with hands that have little or no equity in the pot so folding Air and very weak made hands is a very small part of the equity we have in the pot with our whole range.

I must admit that i cannot come with a formula how to exact calculate the R in a given situation but lets build an extreme example:

1: Hero is SBvBB and raises First in. Villain is Mr. Passive and never bets or raises in the whole hands but calls evers SD and FD on Flop and Turn as every Middle Pair+ on FTR

Heros R = 1
Villains R = 1 - (Equity of less than middle Pair and Backdoordraws)

So there is not so much equity from Villains range missing as he may fold 40% or so Hands but not 40% Equity.

Ready for discuss :)

As i (former NLH player) understand the concept of R it cannot be >1 because more than 100% of your equity is difficult to realize :)

So your R is between lets say 0.5-1 (hard to not realize more than half of your equity even in the worst situations) and the R of your opponent also.

If i try to guesstimate my R fpr plo i take some infos like posi (more than in NLH), initative (less than in nlh) villains range, and some stats from villain like WWSF, betting volume, AF%, cbetting%, Fold to Dbet, Fold to CR and so on. I even have a popup with all relevant stats and named it eq realization.

To come up with exact numbers is very difficult, maybe some of the highstakes guys have some math tricks for this.

Hero is ip