Myosotis

I disagree with myself

As played, a call on the turn is best imo. We want to keep BB in the pot, and even if he's on a draw (very likely with his minbet/call on the flop). Overall he doesn't have the right pot odds to call (assuming we fold if the flush hits and he bets). He can also find a fold with top pair if we raise.

I like leading the flop.
However, as played, leading the Turn is really bad.
Considering the action on the previous street, BTN is very likely to bet all-in Turn.

I think once we face the bet on the turn, our best option is to raise because BB did a small bet on the flop, which tells us he's got a weak hand or a draw. Does anyone disagree?

@Benovi
" reraise all in here feels like it's begging to be called by AX. " Yeah I feel that too.
Thanks for your answer, I appreciated reading it.

@ItsToothPasteISwear
"to take card removal into account": already done. 
"equity vs each subgroup": I though it was obvious enough to see that AK draws dead against all the hands that already beats us except A3s, and  that his draws add him equity, which strengthen his overall equity against us. But you are right, I had to do this with the equity results. A bit too much for me, who knows, next time.

@Bluff 
I like that play too!

"Also : " AK is in the top of your range" Being in the top of our range doesn't mean it's an auto-stack off every time. In a few siuations, we need to re-evaluate if we really in the top of our range according to his remaining range at a given street and action."

If we try to define his range when he raise on the turn. First of all, we need to give him a preflop range based on what we thinlk a 3bet call vs resteal could be for a 50NL reg (also add I've been a bit active).
Let's assign 12.37% and assume he calls 22-66/AA 50% of the time:
 JJ-22, AQs-ATs, A5s-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, AQo, KQo

Now hands raising on the Turn (considering there's 0 pur bluff)

1- For Value that beats me:  A3s AdAc 88 77 33   [1.66%]

2- For value/protection I beat: ~AQo/AQs 
he will call more than he raise, and will not float every time so let's say 30% of his AQ so: [0.34%]

3- As a semi-buff: 67dd/87dd/89dd/9Tdd/TJdd/TQdd/JQdd/QKdd   
He will often make a move on the flop or just call turn so let's say 40% : [0.48]

4- Playing bad: Axdd, AJo/AJs
he needs to be playing really bad to do this let's say 30%: [0.52]

By adding 2+3+4: 1.34%, which is less than the hands that have me beat (if my estimations are correct or close obviously)


I think it's time for me to finally buy CRev and start to make trees. Cheers.

First of all thanks for the answers.

@stepitup
"AK would be an exploitive fold in this spot" It's the first 3-Bet pot pot we play, if I fold AK here, how can he exploit me knowing I fold AK since it will go to the muck.
Also : " AK is in the top of your range" Being in the top of our range doesn't mean it's an auto-stack off every time. In a few siuations, we need to re-evaluate if we really are in the top of our range according to his remaining range at a given street and action.

@ItsToothPasteISwear
"I dont like your turn sizing"
I already mentionned it and asked to answer as if my sizing was correct : "I think my sizing was bad here"
"Question 2:
Assuming you bet a more standard 12 and get raised all-in here. What do you think?"
I'd rather prefer you answering to question 1 and 2.

However : I agree with the range I might win against (also add combo draws willing to stack off turn like 9Tdd, JTdd etc... but it's not to likely, we don't know to much about his tendancies and neither does he about mine) and the fact that even if my 15 bet size which is dumb because gives me 4:1 and good odds to call. It's still a fold I will try to explain why

@Ondrej Rysavy
I didn't mention it but I think a check on the turn is fine, but I would say a slight portion of the time (no more than 20-25% for me). You want to be able to barrel this scare card with your bluffs, so you need to do it when you hit. Also nowedays, more and more tricky villains are checking the turn with there draws in position when cheking to them)
But again, I think we can choose to go for a check here.

I will try to tell why it's better to fold imo later.

I'm not against a check flop / give up also. Villain is not full stack, seems to be a fish, and they rarely fold this kind of boards.