MrFrush32

I like checking just to keep variance down, but if perhaps CO bets, I'm raising 100% of the time. I know it sounds like a strong line, and is, but you block the nuts as well as getting value from inferior hands like Ax, KQ, other KJ and QJ hands that lead turn in position when checked to. It's not to say that the big stack doesn't peel one with hands like 88, 99, TT just to make a play in position as well. Now a small % of the time he has flushes, and a fair amount of time he has AJ (which might continue if you c/r turn but should get folds a fair amount of time or enough to make the play profitable). I think overall checking is best option as betting entices shoves or huge raises a lot and you don't want that in this spot.

Shoving is just not profitable the way the hand was played. I don't believe there are enough T's in your range where it makes the shove profitable. Even if you put him on bottom set on flop, he thinks that you'd hardly ever x/c flop with 2nd set or top set. Thus villain knows that he's up against one of 3 MAYBE 4 hands max that has him beat (TT, 9Ts, JTs, ATs/o). I don't know how you play but it's unlikely that you call with KTs in that spot.

On the flip side... not "knowing" what he has... if you were to shove river you have to think about what hands is the guy folding? If you put him on even 88+ and AJs+ preflop, you need to consider what hands would he be betting flop with? AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT (maybe, seems to be a stretch though), 99, 88 and AJ are most likely. I think a fair amount he'll lead with AQs (backdoor flush draw). He obviously wouldn't lead AK hardly ever unless the guy is fairly aggro.

When you call flop, and see the Q, I don't know of a single hand the guy would lead with. I think in certain situations against specific opponents, I MIGHT lead combinations that make me a straight on turn but very rarely. Upon his check to you, think about all the hands that your representing: AJ, 99, 88, 89, KJ, QJ, etc... then there are hands that get there on the turn like 9Ts, 8Ts, JTs, TT, QTs... BUT if you really had hands that were first mentioned that DO NOT make a straight... I don't think you flat the flop in position on a wet board like that with those hands. Again, just an assumption being made. So for the villain, those combinations are out. Now he's playing you against a T and only a T.

On the river here is how I would break down his ranges: AA (not calling often, but might in "hero" type situations), KK same as AA, AK (he NEVER has the way the hand played), AQ does not call, AJ does not call, AT and TT snaps you off. 88, 99, JJ, QQ all reluctantly call after a tank. 4 hands he folds, 6 hands he calls with. If you think he folds 50% of the time... the shove is "profitable" according to chipping up and ICM BUT at the same time it's VERY VERY VERY hard for you to rep a T or a hand like a set that has value on the river the way the hand was played.

Keep grinding and GL at the tables.

Just by VPIP and PFR you should understand that BTN player is pretty solid for the most part and should have a good idea on what's going on. With that being said and with no other info (your image against villains, your activeness at the FT so far, if your known as a reg/rec player), I actually like open folding to the 3-bet. It doesn't make any sense to call because your only set mining and 4-bet shoving against a player with that kind of VPIP and PFR is just not smart knowing that your flipping a VERY VERY small % of the time. You didn't play it terribly by any means, I would've saved the 3bb though by just folding to the cold 3-bet. Gl buddy.