Moriarty

This is really interesting. 36 billion for an 80k person settlement seems low. There's another company supposedly planning a less ambitious colonization of Mars through a reality TV program, the link is below. After centuries of nothing, all of a sudden there's a land grab!

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-06/mars-colonization-mission-backed-big-brother-creator-could-be-reality-tv-show

25:30 - TT63ds river raise

I'm not a fan of your raise w/the T high flush on the 87AQQ board.

I think it has a good chance of working against J and K high flushes, but he doesn't have those as often as the A high flush, and going for value on the river with those hands is thin, most players will check. Quite a few players will even check the nut flush here.

You're representing such a narrow range of hands when you raise, and many of the better hands we're trying to fold out will be blocking those combos and might talk themselves into a call. In addition it's easy for the villain to have stumbled onto a FH himself. Unless you think he gives you so much credit that he might fold Q8 here, I think a raise is less profitable than a call.


7:20 - KJTTds hand.

I thought this hand was very interesting. If you think he has spades so often that you want to bluff the river, why don't you just shove the turn? He made a very big turn raise, if you shove he has to call 839 to win 2998 total, so he needs just 28% to call. Bare flush draws have ~25% against you, so shoving puts these hands in a gross spot. Pushing him off his equity is great, and if he decides his FD+gutshot is good enough to go with that's great too.

I agree that he's bluffing the turn like this with KK every time, but he would have had to make a crazy float on the flop to have KK with nothing else, you're looking at AKK, KK w/2 pair, maybe KK9x. I think it's optimistic to expect he'll follow through on the river with all his turn bluffing hands, it looks like you have at least the one card straight when you call the turn. Maybe KK bluffs, but is he really following through with hands like the one he showed up with, laying you 3 to 1 on a call on the river? I don't know the villain though, so if you think he would I trust your read..

Doing some rough math, if he has KK blockers w/10% equity 50% of the time, and a flush draw 50% of the time, shoves every flush river and also shoves KK on all non flush rivers, we can expect to win $758 on average, compared to $924 if we shove now. This is assuming we c/f flush rivers though, I guess depending on our assumptions we might have to call, it's an ugly spot.
(924*.75)+(-396*.25) = 594 winning vs FDs
(1763*.65)+(-1235*.1)+(-396*.25)=923.5 vs KK
594*.5 + 923.5*.5 = 758

I'm pretty sure that's right, but please let me know if I made a mistake!

If we want to turn our hand into a bluff when the board pairs this will also change things, and clearly the more often he's bluff shoving blanks the better calling is, but given that he's a decent player and is unlikely to be bluffing with no equity here, I feel protecting our hand is best.

I realize that balance is important, however I would prefer to call with our barest KT straights here for balance, as well as one card straight hands w/TT in them. When we're not blocking the straight less of his raising range is air, we're more likely to be getting freerolled, our overall equity vs his range is lower.

I thought the video was good overall, there was the perfect amount of action you got in some interesting spots, and you did a good job explaining your thought process.