Mercurius

It's because I wanted than people could see easily than on the river villain only have 1/3 pot.
But it's true than I could have hide the result.

So I think going polarized with a big sizing is the safest and for sure good enough strategy.

Yes it's a very good idea. Intuitively I would bet small as a default but it's true than polarizing have probably the merit of working better against any type of range.

You are not the first than speak about good rackback deal.
How do you find this deals ?

Because me I just make deposit on site and nobody offer me anything. How do you do that ?

It's like the rackback race how all this things work ?

Do you think this WPN take french player, because paying all this taxes on ps.fr make me crazy ?

It's not than I don't like my country, it's just than I hate my state.

For the complet player pool the highest point of the curve is at -70bb/100 hand.
And for the 50 players it's at -5bb/100 hand.

Poker is an extremely expensive pass time for some people.

First graph is the complete player pool.
Winrate in bb/100 is on abscisse axe, theyre is some super high and super low because some guys have play one hand and have all lost.

Second is only the 50 biggest player in term of hand played of my database.

It's the first time I make this things so I could have done a mistake but I think it's good.

Theyre is definitively more winner than I was expected.

On the complet pool, I have 1042 player, and I'm very surprised, but 437 have made a profit.
I will try to put that on a graph. I probably should do a gauss curve.
We will see.

No, it's true than I had not tell you than I was speaking about the regs.

Look my precedent post, I have put the result of only the players where I have more than 1000 hand.
Of course 1000 hand is small and the variance will be very high but she is the same for every player. So the 25% of winners is probably correct even if the winners are not the good.

if only 5 to 15% of reg was winning I think the game would have stop.

You also play nl100.
In my game only 25% of players have make a profit before rakeback.

What is this percentage in your game.
I just want to see how much french tax kill us.

Yes, by spending a little more time on HM2 I have found than after checking the flop if my opponent was'nt betting, I don't bluff enough on turn and river.
In fact I have spend many times on making review of the bet/bet/bet line and I have to work on the others lines.

So finally even if I had said than this month will be for studying bet sizing it will probably be for the next month.

Difficult spot for me because with your small sizing I may think than I could have induce something. But I think it's still a fold.
I would Cbet bigger and not always on flop, and if I bet this flop I don't bet this turn often.

I don't like the call.
A lot of 4 bet bluff are Ax type hand and I don't think many player value bet QQ or KK on the river especialy when a jack is on the board.

Thank you for your time.

VPIP/PFR, 3-bet, BB defend SB steal.
For this, I use poker snowie at the moment and don't want to change because I like the idea of having fix range in order to analys. I will change later but for the moment I will stay like that. Before becoming loose I need to know what I do with my current range. And on.fr the rake is high so being lose is probably not has good as it is on others site. This is the result of all the player against who I have more than 1000 hands. (Lot of red and if you take into account than I'm under my ev and than I play mostly vs them, that meen than on average they have winnings higher than theire EV result, so on theory they should be again more red)

If you can do the same thing I would be interested about knowing the percentage of winning player on your site to see the impact of the rake.

Squeeze: 5,31%
This will change, I had make all the preflop range vs 1 player in snowie, but not with a cold caller. we will see what it will give in the next month.

Flop c-bet: 40% is definitely too low
I'm not sure of that, In HU pot, I'm 49, 47, 67
I am currently doing some aggregation report to find the theoric frequency.
This is my first result (vs Cbet is on flop, I should do the other street but it take more times to do thelaater street):

I should make other position and then make a weighted average but Cbet will probably be lower than in BN vs SB, because check a lot OOP.
And in multiway pot, OOP the only thing than I have to telling me what I should do is snowie. And OOP he chack a lot more than in HU pot.
So the general Cbet stat id probably not super high (In theory but it's probable than exploitatively it's higher)

Fold to c-bet by street
Flop raise c-bet: 8%
Yep, this have also been reported by King Leon. It's probably the major leak right know. and it will probably be confirmed when I will have finish my aggregation repport for different position.

Last point, how do you do this little circle on each of your point.

I just come to find a cool thing in HM2.
You right click on your name in the opponents report and ask to analyse player in a pop out.

The flop Cbet

Do you think I have enough nothing in my 2barrel line ?

The turn Cbet :

Not many air on turn.

Yes, I had not think about that.

But I still have too check if I put enough bluff on turn in proportion.
Do you know if some filters exist than can tell me that ?

but for me it seems like it is on a higher side

Is it good or bad ?

What are your reasons to overfolding?

No specific reason.
Probably a bad play of me, and it could explain why my red line go down so fast.
So yes theyre is serious chance it's a big leak.
I will look at that.

ty

I think I have find one other.
My river Cbet is super high compared to turn and flop. So I probably don't bluff enough flop and turn and finish with too many good hand on proportion of my range on the river.

The EV you find using this method is more realistic

Yep it's the method I use.

from what I have seen IP player plays even more sub-optimal against always check

This will be my work for later because at the moment if someone don't bet enough I know than I have to fold more but adaptation against someone than bet too much is a lot more complex in my opinion.
Because you have to raise more, but the choose of the raising hand is difficult. At least for me at this moment.

Have you examined this?

I have make a lot of Pio simulation and OOP it's exact than theyre is a lot of spot where we don't bet much as PFR. But in a lot of spot we bet 20-50%.
Even in the 20% pot I have look at the EV result to see if I could remove them without hurting too much the EV but sadly the EV go down a lot.

You had tell me than 1% was significative and 5% a lot.

By not Cbetting OOP I remember having seen spot where the EV of OOP was lowest than the player IP whereas it was the opposite when allowing the bet even if the frequency is low. Theyre some 10% gap in term of EV.

So yes I don't Cbet often OOP but I still Cbet OOP.

Why do we cbet OOP as PFR and never donk BB vs BTN?

Because often Pio tell me too bet OOP as pfr and often he don't tell me to donk BB vs BN (even if he tell me too donk a lot more than I was doing or than I do).
I think t's because BB range is weaker than BN, whereas CO range is stronger than BN calling range

What strategy must villain play to make us want to cbet or donk OOP?

My answers doesn't take in account villain's strategy. At the moment I just try to play as much as possible like Pio do.
In may I have promess too myself to work on bet size.
So adapting to villain will be for June.

I also impose myself a lot of restriction but this seem too much for me. Checking is not as bad as what we was thinking years before but betting OOP is good often.

Thank you for your answer.
I dont think than my hand is really high in my range but it's the fact than snowie was telling me than it was a super profitable call than I make me think more about the hand.

If I had the Jh I would have call 100%.

My problem is than villain is probably cutting his range in multiple under range because he use a lot of different sizing.
Because he his good he probably try to equilibrate this different ranges (maybee not if he think I'm a fish).
But nobody can equilibrate perfectly different range multistreet or he would no more play small an mid stake on .fr.

So in extrem spot like this, it is way more likely than villain can be exploited than in a more standard pot.

And more extrem adjustment can be done.

But how can I know in what direction he could deviate whereas this extrem pot don't happen often.

Do you have an idea ?

River I think I bet often.
Turn call, maybee. I don't think I will always call.
River, why not, if you don't do it too often.

he don't bluff turn, he call

I fold preflop, but as played flop bet seem fine.

I find the sizing strange but for the rest that seem ok for me.

Pio say fold with just a calling frequency of 3%
Snowie say clear call with very high EV.

You is the better here ?

He multitable but I'm pretty sure than he is one of the only winning multitabler player on PS.fr.