McMang

Thanks! It does :)

Thanks for a good video!

At 43.27, you folded KK32ss on the bottom table.
1) If CO didn’t flat, would this hand still be too weak to 3-bet?
2) If too weak to 3-bet, how come we can´t include this and similar hands in a calling range? Even if we are OOP and will end up in a decent amount of tough spots postflop with this hand, I think our preflop equity is pretty good vs HJ open and possibly a BB call.
3) In this particular spot when CO flat, I would be even more inclined to call. How come you think it is too weak to play?

Ok, I see. Thanks.

The hand at ca 10.00. How come you find AJT9ss to be an open from the CO, even in a normal game as you say?

• Looking at the ”Rank” simulation at ProPokerTools its more like top 50-55% of hands, which I would see as a pretty clear fold.
• If we are 3-bet by say a 15% range we only have 40.6%, which seems borderline to me.
• If we get it HU vs a BB playing say top 70% we only have 44.4%.

Looking at those numbers I would not come up with that hand being an open from the CO.

Thanks for your reply!

I did put Spaise on a too strong range, I agree with you on that. I took out some stronger hands like 44, QQ-AA, three wheel cards with an A, but still ended up at ca 35% equity on 5th. Then left it at that, didnt remove other obvious 2-bet hands like three low flush cards etc. And he would probably 2-bet much wider than that as you say.

I also agree that he might (and should) raise some of his pair of sevens on 4th, further lowering his equity on 5th in this spot. If you do get up to somewhere around 42% in equity HU, I can imagine that raising and calling becomes more equal as options as happened to be the case in my last example. In this case it might still be marginal, as you conclude yourself, if your equity isnt always that high.

I can also see the value in knocking Zapa out if we have more equal ranges, as long as we are doing a little better vs Spaise’s range. Or if we like in this case or a similar spot have a stronger range than Zapa, but actually have a hand like (9s4s)Qs9hJh. We still have roughly the same equity vs Spaise, but gain much more by knocking Zapa out with Tx or Jx hands than keep him in the pot, obviously. Then it feels like an automatic raise and then be prepared to slow down/give up later in case Zapa still comes along.

Thanks for another good video!

I found the stud/8 hand at 28:32 very interesting, especially the 5th street decision. First, imo, I think your hand is too marginal to raise vs such a strong low board. It would be different if he had something like 4h2d7c instead of 4h7h7c showing. Second, I am curious if it is better to try to knock out Zapa instead of letting him come along with a wider and weaker range. Both in this specific spot, but also in similar spots in general.

In this specific situation, my analysis below shows that raising on 5th is a clear -EV play. Also, that calling and letting Zapa continue with a wider range is probably a +EV play, but still marginal. Please feel free to comment or correct the assumptions and analysis anyone.

Raising on 5th
You say you expect to have something like 53% HU vs Spaise’s range, and something like 37% 3-way.

HU on 5th vs Spaise I get your equity to be ca 35%. I assumed a range for him of all three-lows, all three-flushes, all pairs, rolled-up and also AT-AK in the hole with a two-flush. Even if we assume a somewhat capped range, say that he 2-bets on 3rd with some good starting hands, I still get your equity on 5th to ca 35%.

So raising to get it HU even if we know that Zapa folds 100% still seems marginal at best. Spaise will probably 3-bet his best hands, forcing us to pay possibly $1000 to see a showdown. On average we will probably pay close to $800. $800 to win $2278 would require 35% in equity.

Add the fact that Zapa will sometimes continue when we raise on 5th, with his strongest made hands and four-flushes, ca 25% of the time accordning to my estimation below. 3-way vs Zapas stronger range we will probably be down to ca 16% in equity – making the raise on 5th a clearly losing play imo.

Calling on 5th
If we look at calling down instead and start by trying to estimate Zapas range. Given his slightly surprising bet on 4th, I would imagine that his range is weighted toward hands that he wants to protect or hands that he wants to get in bets with for value on 4th. Especially if he for some reason is afraid Spaise would check behind hands like AT-AK, 4x, 7x or something else. He could possibly start betting some three-flushes as well, but I think those hands are less likely to be in his range now once he bets 4th. To make some assumption of his range, I can imagine 44-AA, TsXs, Jx in the hole and then possibly a few flush combos, say 7s8s, 7s9s, 8s9s, As9s, As8s, As7s, AsKs. The four-flushes won´t be the most important hands to account for anyway imo, since we are neither winning nor losing that much vs them.

Given that range once he bets 4th I can imagine that he might continue with the following range if we just call on 5th:
Jx, 55, 88-AA, Tsxs, 7s8s, 7s9s, 8s9s, As9s, As8s, As7s, AsKs
That is, only folding 44, 66, 77.

If we raise on 5th, I think he might continue with only 55, TT-AA and the ss-combos.

Estimating Zapas range is not the easiest, but we can still assume that by just calling 5th we will keep him in the pot with a lot of marginal hands as well. Given the range above, our equity 3-way is 23% and probably just enough to calling down from 5th and on, on most runouts. But still marginal.

If Spaise had a weaker board
Quick analysis if we change Spaise’s board to 4h2d7c.
- HU vs Spaise we now have ca 42% equity.
- Vs Zapas stronger range of 55, TT-AA and the ss-combos I assumed was in his range, we now have 17%.
- Letting Zapa in with the range of Jx, 44-AA, TsXs, 7s8s, 7s9s, 8s9s, As9s, As8s, As7s, AsKs (now also calling 44, 66, 77) we now have equity of 26%.
- Assuming that raising 5th will make every player pay $800 5th and on.
- Assuming calling 5th will make every player pay $600 5th and on.

Raising 5th, Zapa comes along ca 25% of the time:
EV = 0.75 * (0.42 * (800 + 800 + 678)) + 0.25 * (0.17 * (800 + 800 + 800 + 678)) – 800 = $48

Calling 5th, Zapa comes along with wider range:
EV = 0.26 * (600 + 600 + 600 + 678) – 600 = $44

Would be interesting to know what anyone thinks about my view on the hand and if anyone sees the hand differently in any way. Or any other pros and cons with raising vs calling on 5th, etc.

Thanks for another great video! I would like to see a third part as well.

Hi!

Great video as always!

24:30, LHE 85o. A couple of quick preflop questions and a longer post flop question for you.

I would normally open 98o, 86s on the BTN as the worst comparable hands.
1. Am I playing too tight in that spot vs a normal BB?
2. Am I not opening up enough if I fold 85o vs a tight BB?

With regards to calling the flop raise in this spot ”against a normal check-raise frequency” with back door straight draw and back door spades, it seems like a loose call to me. Assuming that our opponent starts with a range of 15%-70% and in a best case (LAG) scenario check-raises all his pairs or better, all gut-shots (23,25,35,JT,KT,KJ) spade flush draws as well as back door heart flush draws I get our equity to 22% and it would be only 16% if our opponent choose not to check-raise his hh and the low gut-shots.

Once we call the flop raise, I guess our plan will be to call the turn on all 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 and spades, since we then will have at least 14% equity and we are calling 4k to win 29k plus possibly some implied odds on the river action.

So, once we decide to call the flop raise we will call the turn bet 47% of the times (22 out of 47 cards). Our average equity on those turns will be ca 28% when our opponent also check-raise all hh and low gut-shots.

If we forget the river action for now, we will on good turns call 6k for a chance to win 29k. Our average equity will be ca 28% so we will win 8 120, making a profit in those cases of 2 120 chips. On bad turns we will call 2k and then fold on turn. (That is the average EV on the 22 turns we call, not taking into consideration that some turns would occur more often than others due to blockers in opponents range.)

Our EV on the flop/turn calls will be: 0.47 x 2120 - 0.53 x 2000 = 996 – 1060 = - 64 chips.

If we assume that our opponent don’t check-raise with hh, 23, 25, 35 we will on the turns we choose to play have even worse EV, down to ca 24%. And our profit on those flop/turns would instead be 24% of 29k minus our investment of 6k = 960.

Our EV on the flop/turn calls will then be: 0.47 x 960 - 0.53 x 2000 = 451 – 1060 = - 609 chips.

Whether we have any implied (or reverse implied) odds on the river or not I guess is debatable and dependent on the opponent, but since we will end up with many river hands that might be hard to play I don´t think we can count on much extra EV due to that vs most opponents.

If my calculations and assumptions are correct I would rather say that this spot with a back door straight draw and a backdoor flush draw is a clear fold against almost any opponent.

What do you think Iteopepe88? Or anyone else with an opinion 

Great video as usual! Especially fun and interesting when the video is based on a tournament like the PPC.

I appreciate that you not only analyze and comment on the specific hands and situations that are played out, but also the extra discussions on starting hand ranges, other slightly different situations that could arise, etc.

Keep up the good work!