Maxmidget

Why check flop? Little direct odds, very dry flop that hits our uncapped range nicely.

How are we even considering a fold here? Top two, NFD + 2nd NFD, lots of straight draws on the board with none that got there, no one 3b preflop so we can rule out a lot of top set combos, 4ish outs to top boat.

3600 to win 11400? This is a slam dunk call.

We are 38% vs. two liberal ranges of KQ+, JT+, with a backdoor to the nut flush, 2 outs for the nut top set, and ~50% of the deck gives us a NFD.

Given that we are in position and on somewhat thin equity, I think we are between peel and fold here. If we stack off OTT on any card 2-4, Tx (gross), any spade, any club, any ace, that is a little more than half the deck.

This spot is very thin. V2 should be very strong but you called him loose. Player tendencies tip this towards call IMO.

Villain craise range on flop is what? [QTs, KJ, AJ, JJ, KK, AA, TT?, QQ?, 65cc+?]?

Unfortunately we block a lot of the flush draws we want villain to have OTF. I don't think we deny enough equity with a 3b to counteract the fact that villain is folding all worse hands to a 3b. I like call flop.

IMO I think we should go call/call here because we probably can't make a flush fold, and we want to keep his bluffs and AJ hands in there OTR. I go call/call here but it is a gross spot.

Any reads on villain?

I don't see how flop isn't an automatic jam - we have redraw to higher straight and we can push equity against a lot of sets, flush draws, and dry straights in villain's calling range.

If we are peeling, what is the plan? Check back or fold when turn pairs the board or completes the flush? Push in chips on dry turns?

You have a range advantage, so I would advocate for leading flop.

Phil G.'s video on playing 3b pots OOP had a lot of check/calls on flops like this, but I need to re-watch that and the situation here is different.

Also, how significant is it that I have the 9c, vs. a 9d?

My logic for checking back river was that I can't reliably rep a flush (though I could rep a boat), and he should be checking his whole value range if he thinks I will bet all of the hands I call with, and I can be check raise bluffed off my hand.

What do we think a realistic range is for SB and CO? I'm ~45% vs. what I perceive SB's range is, but it is very tough to play (do I call down with top pair on brick / brick runouts?

Lol call.

I don't understand how a check in the dark is better than 100% checking without telling your opponent.

Seems way too obvious of a sizing, easy 4b spot but the shove just screams JJ/AK

I just can't imagine his river raise/folding range is wide enough to justify this.

Found the recreational nit

Nitty recreational player

Fold

You may get value 4betting from worse pairs set mining, or AK playing fit or fold.

I like reasonable 4b sizing and folding to the shove. NH.

I don't like tank calling the turn and showing weakness when he has enough left behind to jam river.

As played I cry call river. His preflop flat should exclude 99-JJ, and he doesn't seem like the type to give up on a bluff.

If we are folding turn how can we call flop? Only hands that improve are AQ and AJ, everything else should have gotten there OTF.

CALL how are you guys folding here.

I think villain's demeanor is not too indicative of anything one way or the other. I would assume his surprise is genuine because we haven't called yet and have shown KK. The physical tells I would look for would be his shift in demeanor as we tank since he should start to get nervous with AK and QQ. I would need way more history to make this fold ESPECIALLY against a drinking frustrated player.

Flatting pre is fine.

Given your assumption about him knowing you 3b light out of the blinds and the relative difficulty and reverse implied odds of playing AK oop with this SPR, would 5b to 800 and fold to a jam.

Small 4b oop screams strength to me. I would flat with the intention of calling a cbet and evaluating from there.

At a glance it's a fold. Adding some math, assuming an MP range of [22+, KJ+, A7+], and a CO range of [66+,AJ+, A9s, ATs], we have an equity of .... 33%.

According to the math and assumed ranges it's a call, which I'm pretty shocked by.

21:30, turned nut straight with 9 high flush redraw, facing a bet. (Board is A265ss, Hero has 345s9s).

In situations like this, what would factor into your decision to flat vs. raise here? Obviously raising has the benefit of realizing maximum EV vs. nut straights without the redraw, but that's a pretty low probability here since 34XX is not a huge part of villain's range.

How do we react to rivers when the flush gets there and villain bets large? How about rivers that pair the board, or give higher straight possibilities? Do we bet for value when checked to on these rivers?

That hero call by Cobus at 17min is terrible. How do you react to a river raise there with flopped Top and bottom pair after it checks through twice and no straights or flushes get there?

I vote for jam, if we flat there are 12 turn cards we hate and he is probably calling off with a FD otf.

Only merit to flatting is if he has complete air in his range (he certainly does) and he decides to ship turn.

Given the unpredictability of how drunk villain will handle a call/check line and the toughness of reacting to a flush turn or king turn I think we should just shove.

Preflop - call is marginal a lot of reverse implied odds calling here and we are x/f way too many flops.

Flop - Jam. Even if he's cbetting after 4betting light we don't have a ton of value in inducing bluffs later on, and we get him to fold QQ/JJ and some KX hands.

River - Gross river card. As played we can cry call or fold depending on player. I would prefer a fold.

WARNING: Approximations and assumptions ahead.

I would put villain's range here as:
100% of [99+,AK] hands and a discounted [AJ,T9,56hh,78,bluffs]

Equity vs. this range if 100% of [AJ,T9,56hh,78] is included: ~49%
Equity vs. this range if only [99+,AK] is included: ~30%
Equity if his range is only value: ~5%.

It's 2400 to call into 5240. We need to be good 30% to make this call. I think it's barely a cry call absent a strong read because the range of [99+, AK] is very reasonable for 4 handed play, 4b pot from a villain who has seen you 3b light.

The 3b pre here is questionable given the opener is described as not being prone to folding.

Flop - Cbet or check is fine, I like a delayed cbet here.

Turn - Fine as played.

River - Value bet somewhere in the $2k-$4k range, strongly depending on history. For example, if you like to bet small to make missed flush draws fold, bet small to balance that range. If your big river bets are noticeably polarized, fire out $4k. I like it that sizing because it temps AX to call, even some adventurous TT/JJ type hands find a hero call here.

EDIT - I would probably also fold to a min-raise shove, absent any reads.