Matus Kopf

So lets say his coldcalling range is this : TT-66,AJs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo thats 5,58% and its pretty tight but most msnl dont coldcall wider if they even have a coldcall range in this spot.

If we bet 75%pot on the flop SB will have to defend about 60%, that is :
TT-88,KQs,QTs+,AsJs,KsJs,AsTs,KsTs,JsTs,AQo
SBs range is so tight he can fold 66 and 77 on the flop directly(or maybe call 66-99 with a flushdraw and fold without FD)

TT has 45% equity vs his continue range. So if u want to consider vbeting we have to bet smaller to force SB to call more on his weak pairs. Pretty far from a clear valuebet imo.

I put this into a solver and the results are pretty counterintuitive for me(as for utg cbet) he wants to bet TT at 60% freq for a 3/4 psb sizing and bet AK 100% of the time. AK is also bluffed 100% on the turn and 30% on the river on blanks.

what i think he means by unconciously exploiting is that villain plays some static strategy in this spot which happens to exploit the strategy we chose to play(even tho he didnt make any specific adjustments vs us).

I agree w OP and disagree w BigFish, I think its good to be firing multiple streets here w AK since we have the best blockers to SBs calling down range. Also our showdown value doesnt matter very much, because villain will get to bluff his worse Ahighs on a LOT of runouts later in the hand due to his very tight SBcalling range

Also betting flop w TT for value seems rly bad to me

results? :)

Kinda of a fishy line by him-i think hes something like-ok this guy otb never has KQ and he might level himself into folding a Q, so im freerolling on fold equity.
KQ is almost certailny part of his PF 3B range-for him to have KQ here it has to be a parlay of not3Bet preflop(very unlikely unless you are viewed nitty), not ch/r flop and not lead river.

I would deff click call. If I should make and estimate I think he has Qx like 90% of the time.

If KQ is not part of BB range I think your river sizing is obv fine, since you can deff bluff enough.

so what kind of range would you shove on the turn? I think we want to make him indifferent to calling with like AK/AA no flushdraw

Also flop: when we put this into a gto solver lead seems very good too, but i think explo people cbet this board still way too much at msnl

AT should be a Tcall most of the time for sure.

Ty for your quick response!
Fair enough, I agree that some strategies will be impossible to execute ingame.

Nice video Tyler.
I have a few questions:
7c5c hand, you say you cbet 100% range for 1/3 of the pot. Do you have any kind of proof that this is going to be relatively close to a GTO strategy? From what you said in the video, to me it just seems that you think this is going to be good vs the midstakes population(they will overfold) exploitatively.
We can use this logic where we say-fine this betsize gives my range protection, oop range is pretty weak. Why not bet just 1bb then? Why 1/3?

I ran multiple flop sizing though a gto solver, i gave BTN a 55% steal range and BB a 52% calling range. Here are my results:
Turn sizes I used : 3/4
River sizes I used: 3/4 and All-in(because of ATcombos in our range-AT can be deff in oop range, so this is a bad sizing to use w T9 as julian posted above-it has much higher EV as a smaller bet)
1)
Flop sizes: 1/3
BTN EV13,42
Flop cbet: 76%
Turn cbet on broadway card: 56%
Turn cbet on blank: 48%
2)
Flop sizes:1/2
BTN EV 13,46
Flop cbet: 70%
Turn cbet on broadway card: 56%
Turn cbet on blank:50%
3)
Flop sizes:3/4
BTN EV 13,458
Flop cbet: 64%
Turn cbet on broadway card: 58,58%
Turn cbet on blank:46%
4)Flop sizes: 1bb
BTN EV13,168
Flop cbet: 82%
Turn cbet on broadway card: 57,5%
Turn cbet on blank:51%

To sum this up: This 1bb bet looks the worst(no surprise), but a 100% 1/3 bet also doesnt look optimal. Although the 1/3,1/2,3/4 sizings have very similiar EV with 1/2 being slightly better.

Now the question is how would i exploit your 1/3 bet with 100% range if I claim its probably not optimal. Without calculating anything I find this pretty hard to exploit-probably making my c/r Flop frequency a bit higher(hurting your protection betting range) and probably c/r to a pretty small size.

wish you could hear my laughs when I read this

Hi Ben,
I liked the video and this format is very good-looking forward for more of these.
About what Tyler(above this post) wrote-Kanu never has 54 so BB maximizes his EV by going AI with 1part of his range. ALthough I think it might be good to keep some portion of his 54combos in his smaller betting range, because if he always overbetjams with 54, Kanu can valueshove his KK/99 and bluffs vs a smaller betsize which might hurt BBs overall EV. Do you think its correct to include 54 in the small betting range(if we choose 2 betsizing options ont he river-lets say AI and 3/4)

I also have a few theory questions about things you mentioned in the video. I know you dont like answering questions like this, but ill still try :D
1)65% SB open seems very wide for me vs a good player-is there any way how to estimate if this is good or not outside of just looking in HEM on big samples?
2)Why do you think Kanu needs to call 1-A with a 40% flop cbet when he checks? If we took this to the extreme, if Kanu would cbet 80%, he most certainly doesnt have to defend 1-A when he checks, because the BB will not get this +EV bluffing opportunity very often and there is no way for BB to exploit even a 100% check/fold(i think)

For 100bb i would squeeze a linear range here TT+,AQ+,KQs,AJs With deeper stacks you should deff include some SCs and AXs type of hands with some weight i think just for board coverage.

as for BTNs overcall range:99-66,AJs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s this looks pretty reasonable, although he might be wider than this(this is 6%)

Overall you have a pretty decent equity advantage, so I would use bet as my main line here. Regarding the top best hands here its pretty close, because BTN has 88 and KJs(9% of his range) and we have JJ,KK(10% of our range)

Sizing-50%-66% seems fine on the flop

If BTN is good you wont be able to use much of your blocker on lets say 2h turns, simply because his range contains muchmuch more flushes than yours-you have only AhQh exactly as your only flush-if you are 3B a linear range.

that is insanely tight

It makes sense in my world to donk only if you have a range advantage on a certain board. Problem is, that our calling range is mostly capped and also a lot of hands are calling just to show a smaller loss than 100bb/100 when we fold our BB.
This means that the PFR will have the range advantage on most boards and we wont want to put money in the pot.

definitely just bet flop. This flop favours our range a lot assuming you have a more linear-ish 3Bet range, also equity protection is very important.

As played it seems like you are overplaying your hand. Villain can have 88,QQ+ and like 9c of 6x. if we give QQ+ a 30% weight, that gives us 18 hands that beat JJ on the river. So we need to find at least 19 worse hands that call and I find this rlyrly hard-if hes always calling 99/TT we also need him to still call 7combos of pure 8x and that just doesnt seem very reasonable for 300bb and a decent player.
Also I think a lot of people will think you arent bluffing enough with this line, since you would have to turn Ax(or som random oop float c/c from flop) into a bluff..

Hi Daniel,
nice video and very interesting hands!

H1 22: You talked a lot about his range on the river and that he cannot have bluffs if he would bet out. But what about your range? You also cannot be bluffing for a 380 bet unless you are turning an overpair into a bluff-which kinda does make sense dont you think? esp if you have some blockers like KcKx, AcAx. Since you pretty much lose close to 100% if you check behind(this alone is not an argument for betting ofc).

So i do think his check is good, since hands that would call a bet will almost always bet themselves and you could turn an overpair into a bluff.
Do you think this makes sense?

H2: What do you think abt his river lead since he almost never has KJ here? I think we should be shoving AI pretty damn wide vs this-all of our Jx hands/KJ and some pure bluffs to make him indifferent, maybe hands with the Kc are the best bluffs since we block the only KcJc that he sometimes might play this way

H3 JTo seems very standard and good :)

H4: Q4hh Would you have a betting range on the turn, or just play a 100% check strategy? Seems to me that he thinks that you are checking turn with 100% of your range so he really needs to defend his checking range for the times he has TT/Jx, also as you said you will be more likely to vbet Ax and bluff acordingly so hes not losing value

H5: quick river range check:
AT+ is: JJ+(24),AT(8 if he has a T),97s(4),T8s(2),TT,88,22(7 if he has Tx) so we have 45value combs assuming we want to make non AT Tx indifferent

So we can bluff cca 19 bluff combos, seems to me that we can find enough hands without a diamond for this move. Do you like barreling thru a hand like AhKh here for example? since we block AT/KT and also have decent barreling equity

H6: Like the logic that we have QTo and stuff like Q2s and 22 that they dont have so we should be rly agressive here, but im rly interested why lead and not check/raise? Or do you think its best to mix up both with a certain frequency?

In your river analysis you are assuming he has a 0% flop raising range? I agree that our river sizing is probably bad, but seems rly pessimistic.

thanks!

fold flop

more like snap fold river, you are very near to the bottom of your range that beats a bluff, i guess you have a few worse Qx, but u need to defend a bit more than 50% of your river range, no way AQ is in there.

Also Ax blocker plays almost no role, since you are also blocking his bluffs

I think this could actually be a turn fold since it might be better to call with hands of weaker absolute strength, but more equity vs villains B range

Hi Nick,
I think it would be rly nice if you prepared an interesting situation before the video and put some thought about some points you want to make instead of just exploring the situation in the video.

Firstly I dont see much reason for him to check with his range, unless he thinks BTN will bet IP too agressively. Mostly I think players use his line to avoid tough river spots with 1 bet left and i see it more from the weaker regs. Just for kinda "playability,dont want to use my brain" reasons.

Also I think this turn improves a lot of his flop bluffs like 6cXc,3cXc.

When we have a hand like 77-TT and are thinking about protection betting turn, we have to know how much equity are we denying and how often it will work to make an equation out of this.
This requires a lot of guessing.

What is certain though is, that your turn sizing is waaay too big for what you are trying to acomplish with your range, since I believe his response is very c/f or c/r heavy (and not c/c).

definitely check river, you never have 50% equity vs a calling range when you shove potsize

Rly like the vid! I´d like to ask on 33:00 table 4 J7s hand. You say villain has no intention to bet river as a bluff so we´d rather valuebet turn. BUT you also say he can c/c 6x OTF and c/R it OTT. This means when we check back OTT he has some/a lot 6x hands to valuebet river but no bluffs? What does he do with fd´s without SD value? Should he c/r flop with lets say Thi and worse FD´s and also c/r some 6x right there? Thx a lot for explain.

Hi you have mentioned that you 3bet more linear range from MP/CO to "buy a position". Can you say how much linear your range would likely to be? I can see more polarized ranges in these positions in my games like QQ+,AK and some not good to call "bluffs" Axs, Suited connectors etc. Thx for any comment.
PS: I like this vid a lot and I´am looking forward to seeing another parts. GL

flat pre. as played river is a pretty trivial call, he can deff be bluffing w some portion of AJ/ATs/JTs/J9s/T9s/diamonds. Also we are extremely high up in our range

Hey,
I meant donking the flop 1/5 as a strategy for OOP. Since IP rly cant be very agressive, I would want to just charge his range on the flop directly. It rly puts pressure on his nopair hands i think and BB has no problem defending vs a raise.

Thanks!
2:15 how about leading 1/5-1/6th pot with 100% of BBs range on this board?The idea would be to just charge BTNs checkbeh hands. After doing a crev sim i def agree BTN cant bet very agresively since BB can shove like almost atc because he has so much equity.

Hi Ben,
Very good video.

2:15 You 4bet AKo BTNvsBB against Hattrick, you decide to checkbehind on J97r:
How would you construct your ranges here?
I would guess he is 3betting a more linear range pre(with some trashy suited hands), something like 17%, so his 3Bet/call range could look like this:
TT-99,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AQo (this is 6,3%), I would assume he is shoving JJ+,AK most of the time, but he will have those hands with some weight for sure.

I think we should be betting flop for sure with most of our QQ+ and bluffs, since protection is pretty important(we can checkbeh AA sometimes and JJ always to protect cbeh).
The tough part is to decide if its better to go for a 2 street game or 3street? I intuitively think it should be better to go like 1/2pot and jam turn, just because a lot of cards can kill our action, but dont rly have any kind of proof for this.
As for bluffs: I dont know how your PF 4b range looks like, but checking beh all AK combos seems a bit too passive for me, we block AJs/KJs so bet+shoving some % of the time might not be terrible?

Also for BB strategy: I would usually split my range between c/c and also use a check/minraise strategy here- for value some slowplays pre and 99, c/mr/calling with hands like 78s(generating some feq and commiting ourselves vs overpairs). As a bluff some KQs type hands(obv we cant fold much vs 3Bet shove). What do you think about this?

34:00 Love the river overbet with K7s

40:31 QJo on AcTh5h 3way
I dont understand why you want to consider barreling off here- 3way if we b,b,b villain is going to have to defend so tightly since its 3way, that we probably shouldnt even be able to vbet AK 3 streets.
If nutsinho calls COvsMP this range(no idea if this is even close though but its what i would assume with no stats):
JJ-55,AQs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,AQo-AJo,KQo

Thats 10%, 113 combos with cardremoval on this board, So since both players split the responsibilty to defend here, so CO is going to have to call like 40% on the flop, vs further 2/3 bets he will need to defend roughly 65% on the turn and 60% on the river.
So using 1-A we get 17combos on the river. Assuming we get blanks on T+R, AQ+ is 20combos, so he can fold even some of his AQ hands using this logic.
Wouldnt it be better to barrel a hand like Tc9c here or maybe even play a 100% check strategy?
What are your thought on this?

Thanks!

maybe snowie is not that good at poker...

Solid video.
I think you could have been a little faster at the start explaining ranges. Also I dont quite get this: you say Katya is a very good player and at the same time you dont give him credit to delayed bluff in this spot? He should be def. aware that his range contains AJ+ a lot and i would expect him to bluff hands like JT,QJ here, blocking your best aces)

Also I would rly like to hear some thoughts about Katyas turn sizing- any ideas why he is using this betsize?