Matthieu

A few things :
- That river card seems better for his range than for yours. I don't think that he expects you to lead that turn with sets or flush draws OOP when 3 straights completed. I think that he's expecting you to have a straight, therefore that should make him more likely to bluff that river.
- However, his range shouldn't contain a lot of bluffing hands, and I don't think that he would take that bluffing opportunity.
When he calls the turn, he's very likely to have [two pairs, two pairs+draw, straights, flush draw]
On that river, the only hand with virtually no showdown value is two pairs that didn't turn into a full house. I think that most recreational players wouldn't take that bluffing opportunity on the river with say 94/97 etc nor would they turn a low-straight into a bluff, even if it could be argued for.

I would say that it is quite -EV.

Hope this can be helpful, good luck :)

An estimate of a 3bet frequency from Villain could be helpful here to assign him a range.

I would probably have bet slightly bigger on the flop but I don't have a problem with this.

On the turn it's on of those weird spots in which you're not really able to valuebet against his range and your hand is pretty high up in your range so you might not want to turn it into a bluff.
You're basically denying him a tiny-bit of equity against his two pair hands, and charging him against the few sets that he had in his range, and setting up a bluff against his flushes.
I think that I'd much rather check this hand back and decide on the river, but If I decide to bet this turn, It'd bet bigger and bet somewhere close to 3/4ish pot on the river.

It's not super uncommon for villain for have the Ac here, which is why I'm not thrilled about betting our hand on the turn just to charge a few sets/deny two pair equity and set a 2-street bluff against his flushes that could turn out very badly for us.
I kinda feel like it's one of those flops on which he's going to x/ to you a vast number of flush draws. Blocking the Qc and having the Kc are good, but not good enough to go all out imo.

I'm not super comfortable with those spots tho, so take this with a grain of salt.

Good luck at the tables,

Matt

I don't expect his x/r range to be super diamond heavy here because I believe that he would have x/r his very strong/strong combo draws on the flop. Moreover, he shouldn't have a lot of full houses because he'd have x/raised the vast majority of sets on this flop, and you're blocking JJ/77 which comes in handy.

For all of those reasons, river is a snapcall to me. Folding a hand so high up in your range that blocks so much of his value range isn't worth considering without a very strong read imo.

Hope I was able to help,

Matt

I feel like given the incredible number of draws that missed, if he decides to ever bluff this spot he's quite likely to overbluff it.

I don't think that you should fold JT here, or else you'd be overfolding.
This is very near to the top of your range in this situation and you're blocking JJ/TT that he might decide to play passively once in a while, although I admit that it's not very likely.

I'd call and not feel bad about it, despite the fact that it doesn't look like a good bluffing spot for him.

Hi Lefthook,

First off, I made a range for PPT of what should be is preflop range according to you.
This is a rough guess at what is [3% ; 47%] Preflop range.

I started from a range given by André Santos in this video and added what I think would be the hands that he'd opt to raise/call preflop if he's as tight as you think he is. I am not a PPT expert so take this w/ a grain of salt.

 ((KK$R$R)$ss,(KK$M$M)$ss,(KK$R$M)$ss,$0g,$1g$ss,$1g$ds,$2g$ds,$2g$ss,($R$R$R$M)$ss,($R$R$R)$ds,(****)$tp$ss,(****)$tp$ds,(****)$tp,100%:xxyy,($B$B)$ss,($M$M$B)$ss)!(KK$ds,AA,AKK)

ARGUMENTS FOR BETTING
According to ppt, I have 56% against his range otf. Is this enough reason to bet?(1)
I would think that this board heavily favors his range, but since his range is so wide,
and I have Ad blocker, the part of his range that hits this flop is skewed. In fact, ppt has 
villain hitting 2p+ only ~14% otf.
Also, he will completely whiff flop ~30% ( no fdraw sdraw, or top pair). 30% seems high, but not sure how to interpret this.

30% seems pretty high to me too. It's very hard for him to miss this flop to the point that he can't call a cbet. I end up with an air range of around 22%, which is a significant difference given how unlikely he is to fold. I assumed that he would call a cbet with any 6.

You might have a slim range advantage on his flop in term of raw equity but I don't think that It's a good enough reason to start barreling.
His range has much more sets than yours, and most turns will help his range.

Let's say he folds the bottom 22% of his range that have low equity against your hand.

You'll have to fold vs a shove, and you'll be in a bad position on the turn that he calls very often because of poor playability.
With your exact hand, the only cards that are good for your hand are 4, A and 2!d.

You're not pushing any equity against his calling range, and you're not really protecting against anything. You're probably only making him fold hands that have between 10-25% equity somewhere between 20% and 30% of the time, which I don't think is enough to justify a protection bet here.

I'd rather opt to cbet w/ a polarized hand consisting of good/very good hands, and some hands that will have a lot of turn barreling opportunities but that need more protection against the bottom of his range, like KQJ8ss etc.

On turn playability,

Also, turn playability is surprisingly decent. Even the worst turns still have my equity ~40%, allowing me to c-c any bet on flop and turn to realize equity on river.

Turn playability and equity are two completely different things.
You probably have decent to good Hand vs Range Equity in this spot, but your playability isn't very good. You're lacking visibility and It'll be hard to figure out what the best decision is on a lot of runouts. You'll often end up playing a guessing game.

For those reasons and some others, I opt to check a very big portion of my range on such flops, and I think that your exact hand does much better in your x/c range.

Given your opponent's preflop tendencies, I guess that he's on the passive side and will probably opt to checkback a lot of hand on the flop, which is a good thing for you.

You'll very rarely be in a position to keep barreling with your hand on turns and rivers, and I don't think that it's a good idea to blow up the pot to end up playing a guessing game on most runouts.

Hope this was helpful,

Matt

Hey Marlon,

I assumed that we're facing a relatively tight, somewhat straightforward opponent, whom I believe to be the standard PLO200 opponent.

His range :

I assumed that Vilain would have a tight stabbing range on this flop, and given that he probably would have 3bet the vast majority of his AA, and that 66/33 should rarely be in his range and on top of that you're blocking a 6, we shouldn't expect a lot of set combos.

If he's stabbing a strong range, then I believe that his range should contain a few combos of sets, a few 63dd (or some other draw), good straight draws and combo draws, a lot of A6/A3 and A:dd which represents at least 35% of his stabbing range in my opinion (I messed a bit w/ Odds Oracle but I'm not an expert)

When he calls your turn x/r, my guess is that we can basically remove 54 and most naked two pair combos from his range. Some people will call here with say, A6KT!dd, but you look so nutted on this turn that I believe most opponents would fold those hand with so few clean outs.

He's likely to shove sets+fd, and might shove a set+straight draw or even a naked set a small percentage of the time. It's very player dependent at those stakes so I really don't want to make any bold assumption. But add that to the rest and I think that he should have very few sets here.

All in all, I believe that once he called your turn x/r, his range is heavily weighted towards A:dd, with a minor proportion of A7/A6/A3+redraw for some and combo draws, and that means that his range will be very bluffcatcher-heavy by the river, have a few air hands and a small percentage of full houses.

When the 7 pairs the river, it's quite unlikely that he's got a boat. He shouldn't have a lot of A7 in his range, very rarely 33/66 and 77 in an insignificant proportion.

Kind of a wild guess, but I believe his bluffcatcher/valueshove ratio on the river to be over 4:1. I don't remember the exact ranges that I put in in Odds Oracle but I ended up w a number around this.

Edit : Actually I'm probably wrong about this and I believe that it might be higher than this. 

Your range :

On the river I can only guess what your range looks like since you didn't give info on your turn x/raising tendencies. 

My uneducated guess is that you're quite heavily unbalanced towards nuts and have strong two pairs+strong redraws and combo draws in minor proportions.I'd guess that you probably have a value/bluff ration between 3:1 and 4:1 but this could be off.

On the river you got 0.63 PSB left, therefore if you're shoving you need to be bluffing 27.8% of the time for him to be indifferent to call with his bluffcatchers.

If you want to shove all of your bluffs, you probably need to shove almost all of your straights and your boats whenever you got one, which should be pretty rare.

In a vacuum you probably can x/c your straights profitably on the river tho, because he might have some busted-draws that he wants to bet, but I don't think that it's the best way to play it.
I believe that you'd be missing on quite a lot of value with your whole range, and exploitatively you look so strong here that I don't think that the average opponent would feel like shoving his busted draws here(Even if he should do it at some frequency).

Exploitatively speaking I think It would make a lot more sense  to x/c if the hand would have gone flop checked around, your x the turn, he stabs the turn and you x/r and he calls because he'd be much more air-heavy on this river because his range would consist of more busted draws and less bluffcatchers, and even if I don't think that he'd be very likely to bluffshove, well, he'd have a lot more opportunities to do so.

In the end I believe that your range is much stronger than his range on the river, and that his range is mostly bluffcatchers and a few very strong hands.

In this situation I believe that the best line is to simply shove your whole range. By doing so you're targeting the vast bluffcatching part of his range and you're making a very profitable bluff with your busted draws.
Basically when you shove you don't allow him to checkback his showdownable hand for free and you put him in a spot where most of his range has what I believe to be something close to a neutral decision.

Concerning your idea to x/f,

I don't think that he's got enough boats for you to be very worried about it to the point where you should consider x/f anything.
54 is probably the top of your range on this river, except maybe for a rare A7dd or 77, and a few 66/33/AA combos that you decided to slowplay on the flop.
Therefore you would need a very strong read to fold the top of your range against a shove. You would need to know for sure that he would almost only reopen the betting with a full house. Even If I don't think that he'd bluffshove a lot on this river, I wouldn't x/f my whole range without a super strong read.

I'd rank your options like this, and I don't think it's very close :

shove

x/c

x/f

If anybody else have some critics on this post I'd be happy to hear them, there's a lot of assumptions in this post and some of them could be off and affect the whole logic behind it.

hope you find this helpful,

Matt