Marcitko

Hi Donvapol,

Here are the RFI stats for each position as taught by Jnandez. I am unsure what rake structure these are for, so keep in mind they could be somewhat different based on your stakes.

EP 18,6%
MP 22,6%
CO 30,7%
BTN 47,6%
SB 34,7%

As for studying preflop ranges, I just found this resource today. I have yet to try it out, so this is not an endorsement. https://preflopguru.com/

Thank you. What does "mixed" mean in this context?

I understand it's the industry standard, but why is effective rake % dramatically higher at the lower stakes than the higher? Would it not make more sense to have smaller differences (ie. tax the rich a bit more, and the plebs a bit less or everyone the same)

Think this is an easy fold to the 4b. Our hand does not flop smooth enough to stack off well, and as you mention is often crushed by AA. We have lots of better hands to choose from to continue vs the 4b (double suited, more connected).

As played, I also think the flop is a fold even though I do agree it's a really dry flop and hence we are tempted to continue. If he does not have AA, he has lots of equity. Even if he does not have much equity, our hand cannot withstand any more betting and he is likely to continue betting at some point.

I agree the turn is a fold.

'Highfive' shove.

Did you not post the link or am I blind? :)

I ran a filter for 'silly 3bets' at pokerstars at nl10 and indeed about 50% of the time they are random garbage. The other 50% are hands which one would normaly 3b for value. Hence, calling down is more appealing. than vs a normal 3b. But I did not look at how silly 3betors play the garbage part of their range postflop.

The dreaded minraise flop, pot turn.

Someone once observed that when facing a potsize bet there is always another barrel coming. I've found it to be mostly true. So OTT I think we need to decide to either fold or call down brick rivers since a xback from villain will be very rare.

I'd say that villain is super polarized here, especially OTR. But I do not expect a fish to be balanced in the least. So one fish will nearly always have bluffs here and another will nearly always have value.

Without reads as to which type he is, I'm probably folding turn. Next would be calling down and the least favourable option seema to call turn and fold river.

What do others think?

25k hands is not very much. If you're winning over that sample it's great but not trully informative of your true winrate.

As Mancuso said, when moving up take a controlled shot with a stop loss at 3-10 buyins depending on your comfort level and br. That way, you can grind it up again on your previous level without having lost too much.

Regarding brm, the more I play the more I see the need for conservative brm. So I'd personally go for 50 at least, especially if your winrate is small (say 0-4bb/100). You can input various winrates into a variance calculator to get a feel for how hard variance can swing over various sample sizes.

Good luck with your shot!

Enjoying the thread. Keep us updated.

As mentioned above, calling this river is highly villain specific. If there ever was a villain to call against, this is the one. Also, with no 2p flop combos (maaaybe 23s) I believe he is weighted towards busted draws and airballs.

It also seems suspect to call the turn and fold this river.

You are scared to stackoff with the 2nd nuts?

General NL2 rule: value bet thinly and fold to agression (population calls too much and bluffs too little). Play tight. Loose will get you into many marginal spots so is good for more advanced players.

You are offered 18% pot odds (0,88/0,88+0,88+1,76+1,46).
You will improve to a flush on 9 cards = 18% (V probably has a K already beat so we're not counting K's although they might be live as well).
Hence, you're getting direct odds to call to draw to a flush assuming villain has anything other than a set or the nut flush draw.
So, call.

I'm also interested in any experiences with gto+ and how it holds up to the more expensive options.

By popular demand: Villain had AsKx

Thank you. I did not consider that he c-r also overpairs without a spade. Then it is definitely a flop 3b. I'm much too weak tight and paranoid being very deep.

Thanks guys. So my considering a river call was attrocious. Noob sindrome - dislike getting bluffed, especially on wet boards! :) I must confess that ingame I did not even consider having the Ah. Pretty bad.

Any ideas of how not having the Ah would impact your plan?

frontdoorbackdoor - Great idea to check. We're either way ahead or way behind, or in very good shape vs draws which he will bet anyway and also don't need much protection. Also, if he checks back, we can comfortably bet twice into a weak range. Would you be checking and planing to check-call down if he triples? I'm always paranoid that check-calling as the pfr opens me up to a triple airball (because I sometimes do it and it seems to work great).

Followed you.

Think you played it fine.

I think you can also comfortably call off a river shove from him, since I don't see many 2s or 56s in his range calling a 3b OOP, and I expect him to shove all sets and 2p often.

Agree with the above.

I'm folding. Not beating any value, not even AK that might take this line vs your mini cbet.

It's interesting that here I'm only defending AA (and maybe A5s if I 3bet it) which is obviously super explotable. Lucky that people are not that creative 😃

My thinking is that it does not matter much that you have backdoors here specifically since if called he's continuing OTT very often. But generally, as others mentioned, noone will believe a c/r on this flop. Since it's nuts or air, and air most often, villain has incentive to call down light.