LordDogs

would it be possible that the changes impacted on IP Flop cbetting frequency come from the parameter box used for "probe" being the same that will be used for OOP Turn barrel sizing after him XRaising Flop? (thus making it correct for IP to cbet more on the Flop given that after facing a Flop XR he will then only ever face a small Turn barrel). aren't we tampering with that line as well each time we look at changing "probe" parameters?

Jude Law :)

Is he really trying to bluff you out of Kx in this spot OTR? Your range looks a lot like Kx, he still bets big and I don t expect people to try to bluff people of top pairs in this kind of spot. Also a lot of his range kind off got there OTR, or at least as some kind of weak shodown value and the ones that don t should be trying to bluff the weaks parts of your range (AsXs,AcXc, TcXc, Tsxs, some 2cXc kind of hands) and can do it with smaller sizings IMO. Let me know if I m way out of loop and people are indeed trying to bluff Kx in this kind of spot.

I never said betting is better than checking. I just don t get why you are afroid of getting exploited in this spot. Let s say our villian is a "gto monster": how is he exploiting us in this spot if he will never get enogh info about our game to own us? I m not trolling, I just dont get it. Also, how is villian exploiting our "suboptimal range construction" unconsciously? I m not familiar with this concept (the "unconsciously exploit").

I made some quick calcs, and if you play 4k hands month against this SB reg (and the number is for sure way lower) you will play this spot around 4 times / month. I mean is a very especific and unique spot in wich he will never figure what is our gameplan (the avarage number of times you go to shodown in this spot/month against a random reg is less than 0.5), why shouldn t we just maximize our ev and? Serious question.

I think this is just a fold as most of the regs in the player pool will have close to no bluffs in this spot. Even if I don t think it maters that much in this spot, I think you should call with Qh7x to protect you from being super-exploitable in this spot - as most of his flushs should be QhXh.

I dont think the missed nfd has to bluff river, it still has some shodown value. Most bluffs are missed hearts with no SV and Qx turned into a bluff, and without more info nor balance considerations I think this is a CF river.

I dont think there are a lot of Ax on his range as you block Ah that most Axo who might float would need, and turn is Ad - the bnfd that he may float you with. I can see him floating flop with 2 backdoors (suited broadways of d), and just calling down with some monsters, so his range has some strong hands - I dont really think you can check/call in this spot. I think the really tricky part is what is the absolute worst calling hand in his range, and from that point just count combos and try to find if you can valubet this or not. IMO this spot can be  just an annoying check/fold.

MrSneeze what are the merits you see in betting 180 and overbetting?

Do you prefer overbetting because it puts more pressure in his bluffcatchers and lets you bluff more? Or do you think it makes him fold a slightly bigger part of his range by shoving?

I was playing tight UTG/MP (about 17~20 vpip at those positions). I probably had a low 4B stat at the table and villain already had squeezed before at that table vs other regs. Villain's 3bet was 7 (14 at BTN) for 90 hands.
I think villain's range was really wide. Something like AA-TT, Axs, Kxs, and some other suited hands in the top of his folding range.

My reasons for flatting was to keep his weak hands, and not wanting to call a 5bet with AKo vs a very strong 5b range BTN vs UTG.

My c/call range at the flop includes AQ, KQ, AA,KK,JJ so my though was to make him fold his bluff catchers like TT-Jx-7x?-AK and maybe AA,KK. Does that make sense? or should I be happy to showdown AK and win a very low % of the time?