LPatrocinio's avatar

LPatrocinio

2 points

I think its a tough spot. Sorry for my bad english. I'm from Brazil and I can make some mistakes.

Let's try to give villain a range:

He's a 25/21 with 9% 3 bet. So, I think he's flating against utg open with:

  • JJ-55, AJs-A2s, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, AQo-A7o, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o

Against that range, you have 54,26% of equity.

Flop was really good for you, you have TPGK but villain X/R you. So, from that range, vilain might X/R you with:
JJ,88,J8s+,KcJc,QcJc,AcTc,KcTc,QcTc,Ac9c,Kc9c,Qc9c,Tc9c,Ac8c,Kc8c,Qc8c,Ac7c,Kc7c,Ac6c,Kc6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,K9o+,QTo+,JTo,AcQd,AcQh,AcQs,AcJd,AcJh,AcJs,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,Ac9d,Ac9h,Ac9s

But, you block a lot of Kx and Qx from that range but you're not blocking the possible sets, club flushes, leaving villain with a lot of AcXc and KcXc.
The 5c improve vilain range , since most of his range after X/R the flop is made by AcXc and KcXc.

Vilain checks again, and I think you shoul definetely check back here, because any bet make you commited with the pot. I think we have to aware of SPR on this spots.

Vilain might check JJ, 88, J8s, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KJo,
QJo and against tha range you have only 19% of equity.

You bet and vilain X/R again putting you in all in. Here you've to pay 17,68bb and getting 3,54:1 pot odds. You need to win the pot around 22% but you don't have that equity against the range villain X/R on turn.

I think you should always fold here since you don't have equity.
And you should be aware that you have blockers for the hands you're beating in vilains range and a double X/R when a 3rd club hits the board almost always represents that vilain hits the draw.

GL on the tables m8.

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Jan. 23, 2016 | 4:35 p.m.

Comment | LPatrocinio commented on Study group

I would like to join. Skype: luizfsp88

Jan. 22, 2016 | 10:09 p.m.

Comment | LPatrocinio commented on Skype group

I'm in. Skype: luizfsp88

Jan. 22, 2016 | 1:17 a.m.

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