Kratermero

im kinda curious about your AK hand vs Humans' AA. It seems like a standard shove on the river but I'd like to know how you expect to have 50% vs a callingrange. I guess the obvious hands Human is supposed to c/c are Tx but given your cold 4 pre and your call turn, I have a hard time seeming enough bluffs in your range (AQ I guess?) so make Human obligated to c/c a T. Also, Human quite obviously has better hands so he is by no means top of his range OTR I think.. would love to hear some toughts on that

This 4bet sizing oop is just bad, I don't see any reason for it.

Hero is in the sb so he can't check behind, just check.

If you don't think aq or kqs is in his range how do you see his range? If you give him a 3bet range vs elky there is not much left he can call.
And he get decent odds pre, would it be so surprising to see aq here?
But if we don't even see this hands in his range we should c/f the flop, because his callingrange would be something like jj+,ak.

Regardings this board textur and the icm pressure at 15 left, shouldn't we just check our whole range?
Your opponent has more flushes then you have and the q is a better card for him (because of aq and kqs).

In my opinion you should not raise with a hand as strong as aj on the button vs a reg if you are not willing to call it off vs a shove. If you don't want to call it off either shove or limp pre.

min 28, bottom left with KJ vs tim0thee, you bet the turn on QJ7Q and you say you want to go for 2 streets of value usually. However, this implies that he cbets worse that KJ and furthermore probably worse pairs on the flop to c/c turn, otherwise we cannot expect 50% vs his c/c range. I honestly doubt that we can expect to have so much equity here, because I'd expect Jx and worse to frequently check the flop from tim0's side. Given that, in my opinion our bettingrange should be Qx and draws on the turn and we should strengthen our (otherwise 7x etc heavy) checking range on the turn with Jx as well. This also has the benefit that we will sometimes induce b/c/b bluffs by Tim0. What do you think?

Even without running simulation, Ajo is a easy fold for me. I would call more like aqo+, 88+

Our range has more equity on this flop. 3better also has the position+initative, so I don't think his ''stronger'' ranges should be an argument for checking flop. This flop is also ugly for our opponent, as he has few strong hands (I personally don't think he flatcalls 22-55, I just don't see how it can be profitabel. He is oop with 50bb and plays vs a bigger 3bet sizing). Furthermore his broadways+scs which are quite a few combos only hit the flushdraw and with something like a7s, he has problems to call because he doesn't know how clean his outs are and the turnshove is always a threat from us.

I added any axs and any pockets to the range below, although I personally don't think he calls that wide.

Board: 5h3h2c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 47.25% 44.48% 2.78% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }
CO 52.75% 49.97% 2.78% { KK-TT, AdAh, AdAs, AdAc, AhAc, AQs+, A5s-A2s, QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+, ATo, KJo }

I wonder how good the 3bet pre is really and if call is not the better opotion(of course depending on the people behind you. Even ip ato in a 3bet pot plays poorly.
It could be argued that it is an 3bet pre for value, when he calls this wide, but to realize our equity-edge postflop is hard. Also we fold a lot of equity vs a 4bet and if we call a 4bet, the hand plays even more poorly.

The flop is quite interesting. On the one hand a cbet gets mostly worse hands to fold and against an shove we fold quite a lot of equity. On the other hand he doesn't really hit the board, as all his suited connectors and highcards miss and we have qq+, which he doesn't have. And a checkbehind make our hand quite obvious.
As this is the worst ax we have in our range I would make an 5k cbet as to have an credibel turnshove sizing and would fould vs shove. The stacksizes make it difficult to size for 3 streets, so I don't think betting snaller achieves that much.

I think overbetting is really bad in this spot. To bet bigger to give yourself the right odds to call is almost always bad. If you want to attack his capped range just shove turn. Overbetting just makes it easier for him to fold a lot at the flop and not make a mistake. Our range overall really want to bet on the smaller side, to make his decision with his weaker hands more difficult.

Which is absolut useless in this spot to determinate our callingrange. HRC can't show how much of our equity we can realize with a given hand. And that is the only relevevant question.

There are a lot of factors deciding how close of a spot you want to take. Are there any icm-considerations, how big is your overall edge and how is your edge with diffenrent stacksizes, how is the structure of the tournament, what are the alternatives tourneys you can play if you bust and some minor ones.
With so many factors there is no easy answer. It depends

Yes, just working with the equity vs both ranges is not the most elegant methode. Making a proper szenario analysis(seeing how often we flop the necessary equity to broke) would be a lot more accurate. But 3-way that is really a lot of work. Especially as a stop and go strategie shouldn't be optimal, as there are hits we want to fold when bu bets and sb calls or raises.
I think tmy methode is accurate enough to show, that we should defend 34s. If you want to do the work of an proper analysis I would of course appreciate that.

Folding 34ss should be a mistake in this spot. Some math to show why.
You need to call 6k for a pot of 7k(antes)+12(bu opr)+12(sb call)+12(your bb+call)=43k

Which means you need about 14% equity to call, if you could always realize your equity. Of course that is not the case.
Against an 45% bu range and an 16% flattingrange(discounted because of his 3bet range pre), you have about 27% equity. More then double the amount that you need.

It should be no problem to realize 50% of your equity, as you can't make that many mistakes with 1/2 ps left at the flop. Broke every draw and a lot of pairs and you should be able to realize more then 50% of your equity.

I think the J7 hand is, with all due respect, terrible. I think that its a spot where the valuebettingrange of villain will be straights for the most part, given how many combos just have straights on this runout. Thus, its a spot where turning our mid-range into bluffs seems wrong from a GTO perspective.  Also, his timing and sizing polarize him to a degree where I'd say he almost never has worse than a straigt here for value. 

However, I think its prefectly fine to have a bluffingrange here by donkleading the river and J7 seems like an OK candidate for that. By doing that we avoid the problem of facing an "unbluffable" bettingrange by villain.