Koston

Flop: I like raise , mainly vs a fish ! coz lot of value vs any 7x, 8x, SD, FD . But call is ok too, keep his bluffing range.
Mixed strategie on the flop is good.

Turn : As played , Call.

River : He doesnt value any 1pair hand, he can bet any 2pair + ==> we beat almost 0 hand of his value range.

That bring us to only 1 question in that spot : Is he bluffing more than 27 % ?
Would be surprise to see him bluffing more than 5 % here.
Answer is no. Decision is not close.
Fold.
Easy game.

Yep, obviously it was assumptions in a VERY simplified model ≠ to real situations . Just wanted to check some concepts.

Im thinking again about case 2) Turn EQ : 35% . Turn pot odds : 30% .

We said, if we win by him checking 35 % of the time , lose when he bets. Then a Turn hand with 35% EQ is breakeven . But thats wrong no ?

If Turn pot odds are 30% , it means if we win 35 % of the time by him checking OTR , Turn call is not break even , but +EV ? right ? as Turn pot odds was 30% , and we win 35% of the time OTR.

And the breakeven point ( by him checking OTR ( we win 100% of the time when he checks )) = our turn pot odds => 30 % ? right ?

Ok I see, thanks !
Iam thinking about 2 new cases.

Case 1)
If we say turn pot odds are 30% , we should call any hand with EQ > 30% , ok. But ! As R comes into play, if we say we realize 65 % of your equity OTR , we should call OTT against his betting range only hands with minimum 46 % EQ ? ( 30/0.65 = 46 )
Am I right ?

Case 2)
If we say our Turn EQ is 35 % vs his turn betting range, Turn pot odds are 30%.
- If we win the pot 35 % of the time OTR , it means Turn call is breakeven ? Right ?
- If we win 40 % of the time OTR , Turn call is +EV . Right ?

Thanks Steve.
Exact, Leford defines R : the % of your equity that you realize.
I understand R like this, why are you thinking its a bit clunkier/ambiguous ? Im interested to know. This definition is the simpliest for me. Clear.

Yep, I dont forget our 5outs, just wanted to check this assumption on a "deuce/blank" river. Apparently the reasoning makes sense, glad to hear! :)

Next step,
If we assume ( in a veryyy simplified model obv )
- Vilain bets 60% / Check 40% on all possible river.
- Obv vilain bluffs ratio 1/2 on the river, we cant bluffcatch profitably ( except A or 8 ).
- When he checks we win 100% of the time.
- On our outs ( A or 8 ), our river equity is 100%.

That mean our R on : 2,3,4,5,6,7,9,T,J,Q,K is 40%. Ok.

On an Ace or 8 ( our outs ) R should be superior to 100% ? right ?
Because, vilain still bets 60% / check 40 % on Ace and deuce, so we pick up a big bet.
Something like 200% , maybe 250%+ ? ... I really dont know how R can looks like, and how can we estimate R on these rivers.

Sure my winrate is about several small leaks, as most of us.
But I still think winrate per position is a good way to think about our game in a different perspective.
SB and BB lossrate : this is a more a defense game.
UTG to BTN winrate : is more an attack game.
So I'm just wondering if the problem is more about "UTG to BTN " or "defense in the blinds" , I mean I've seen somewhere that people say " a normal good reg lossrate in SB is : -20bb/100 and BB: -40bb/100 " If this is true it means that my defense is ok and the problem is more about my "UTG to BTN game" , but Im not even sure about that! about this " normal good reg BIG Bling lossrate is -40bb/100" . I need confirmation from a very good reg winner on 1million+ hands at Mid Stakes , thats why I posted.
Also maybe winrate in postions: UTG, MP, CO, BTN can tell lots of things about "if people play well in a particular position" .

Like for exemple : If a "very good reg 5 or 6bb/100" compare mines winrates and them, he could say yours winrates in SB to MP are ok but CO and BTN are too low ... then problem is mostly about my CO and BTN games, then I could think deeper about those positions, and then questionning about my openning range and flatting range in CO and BTN.
Maybe problem is just a little in UTG and MP, and more in CO and BTN.
Or maybe the contrary, problem is more in UTG and MP , and a little in CO and BTN.

Hey nice video, what do you think is a good lossrate in Big Blind ? -20bb/100 ? -30bb/100 ? -40bb/100 ?
thanks

Thanks Blackhawk,

Am I right ?

Bet 3/4 POT :

With " 0% equity " ==> 1-alpha ==> we need 42.8 % FE ( or more ) to bet profitably any two.

With 10% equity , we need 25.4% FE ( or more ) to bet profitably

With 20% equity , we need 6.25% FE ( or more ) to bet profitably.

• I checked 2times for the 20% ... it seems so low !! cant believe we just need 6% FE with 20% equity to bet profitably , something is wrong ?

We need his " raise flop " and " raise flop cb " stats.