Kitsune101

I actually meant to ask your WR when you didnt cbet flop in SRP?

WWSF = 41%. When filter for 20-60bb it becomes 38.3%? is this really low?

my turn AF does look low..

Fair enough, my flop/turn/river agg factor is 1.99/1.75/2.52

I also filter 20-60bb and agg factor is 1.57/1.47/2.36. It dropped from my average but that is expected.

I added +Hero saw flop it did drop to 8.4k hands, but it is still -25bb/100

If i filter final pot between 20-60bb I have 22k hands at -27bb/100. I think that is quite enough to say I am fcking up? haha

That is pretty insane winrate for small stakes given the rake. well done. You are clearly fighting for these pots more than me and the player above. May I ask what your flop/turn AF is?

Also what is your WR when you xcbet flop after PFR SRP and cbet flop ch turn? if you dont mind :) Thanks

Yea, I have a little bit smaller winrate but my med size pot is losing insane amounts -20/30bb. After seeing your results and the guy at the bottom (with +winrate), I am pretty sure I am missing something huge somewhere. What is your flop/turn AG if I may ask?

*forgot to mention, I also love the dynamic avatars. But they need a solution or fix for when table goes from 3 handed to 6 handed as players enter. Maybe give us a button to reset the stats.

Since we are on this topic I guess I will give some of my opinion so far on RIOPoker.

So the key features of RIOP is the anonymous tables and splash pots. I am actually quite indifferent about both of them to be honest. But if you are going to do anonymous I think the way RIOP does it is right. I dont like the "semi-anonymous" tables of Party Poker because players still can use illegal software to get HUD working like normal. I would say my overall experience with it is positive. You lose some of the things compare to non-anonymous but gain some other things from being anonymous.

I guess you can say the same thing about splash pots. You end up playing higher than you want to some % and can gain some edge in these pots but forgo the certainty and security of rake back. And this affects a lot of small to micro stakes players. Lets be honest, if we are stuck at these stakes, then there is something wrong with our game and its up to us to fix it. And because of that we rely on rakeback quite abit to make ends meet, i've been there whole of last year. If we can overcome this mental barrier and focus on getting better I dont see why this would matter much. While I have not been able to beat PLO at a high winrate, from what I see there are a lot of players doing it. As long as the games are clean and free of bots, with enough volume and skill, this should be a positive thing. The more I think about it the more I think "i dont want variance in my rakeback" is a floor argument. It just mean I am not competent enough or confidence enough in my game and the fix isnt the structure of the rakeback method but improving my game. I have seen good players with 8-10bb/100. If you can up your game to that level this variance wont be a problem.

Of cause to start since we are not at that level of skill is to move down stakes if you want to play RIOP. I think players underestimate how BIG you are playing in splash pot. To give an example, a normal 100PLO 6 max game starts with $1.5 and an SPR of 66.7 (fullstack). If you just add a 3bb splash, the game starts with $4.5 with an SPR of 13.3. So you end up starting the game with the same amount you would in a 300PLO game with is 3 times higher and much lower SPR. If I have the average rake/hand data it would be easy to count how much higher we are playing, but for now I would suggest moving down at least one level.

The criticism I have to give is the speed of progress. Its really slow. There are major issues with the software. Being into games, I have seen games that I would think is much more complex vs a poker software with small development teams putting out updates and fixing bugs at a way higher speed. At beta that would be at least twice a month.The crashes need to stop, its makes a huge different. There are many times I was able to identify the same player across multiple tables because he/she crash because they end up timing out or sitting out at all the tables at the same time. This means I dont want to get back on the tables after I crash because I know other players know I am the same player across multiple table. At least the once that are paying attention, from my experiences its REALLY obvious especially since the player pool is still small.

Second issue is I need hand histories. This is probably the thing that is bugging me the most. I cant study my game, I cant see my stats, I cant review my sessions. No idea why we are not getting our HH and its driving me nuts. I am starting to think of conspiracy theories here, help!

Rake is probably another heated topic. I wrote about it before above so I wont go much into it. Form what I understand its competitive vs bigger sites but not necessary vs smaller sites. The rake could certainly be lower but its not crushing. Overall, as long as the games are good in RIOP, I will still play here.

Even though I would not stream, I would definitely still continue playing RIOP for now. And it would make me very happy if they could fix the crashes and give me my HH ASAP.

Hey guys, I guess I should update this post. I have been struggling this pass month about what I want to do with my time. If you have read the OP, you will know that I decided to stop poker end of last year and I came back this feb due to StreamR. It have been fun streaming and playing poker again.

However, something just seems off. I always thought of streaming but never poker. Since poker is a highly competitive game and also require an intense amount of focus. I dont know if anyone notices but when I am actually REALLY playing my A game I do go really quite for a moment before making the decision. And usually explain myself after the fact rather than before. I dont think that makes for a good stream, but I really enjoy immersing myself into poker decisions. All research of high performance or A games (usually call Flow) would suggest that at our best the world disappear for a moment and what there is left is the task and ourself, a deep focus. And I cant do that and stream at the same time.

Secondly, while I am comfortable streaming 50PLO; I dont believe streaming higher than that would be good for myself. Especially on a site where anonymous table is a part of the meta, I am giving up a significant edge. And the competitive side of me want to move up. I move to PLO two years ago so I have a better chance of making it to midstakes (500PLO). Although I failed, I realize I cant just play 50PLO now and be satisfy with where I am.

I am going to commit myself again to poker. I have not yet figure out exactly how I am going to approach this, but things got to change drastically from last year. If not clearly I wont succeed. I have been thinking about my game and last year. Maybe I was failing because of bots (I heard PP just ban 10k bots recently) or maybe other regulars was using illegal HUD softwares to gain an edge over me or maybe I just am that bad. But there is something I am quite sure about, if I know a 100 times more than a fish at the poker table, then a high stake pro knows 1000 times more than me at the poker table. What I am trying to say is there is still ALOT of things I can learn and improve in my game. And I want to push that limit.

So unfortunately, I dont see myself streaming poker. At least not for now. I need to be clear of what I want and be focus on it. I am grateful for those that came and watch my stream and supported me during this two months. It was fun. Thanks.

I dont know that higher RB for higher VPIP will or will not incentivizes better games.

Recreational players are not trying to maximize EV, so they will play whatever they want to play.

So this only really affects pros. And from what I can see, even at highstakes with low rake environment, the VPIP that change all that much. My guess would be at 2kPLO your VPIP at most is at the low 30%+(maybe 30-35). How much are you going to decrease the rake at 200PLO that I would want to change my VPIP from high 25%+ to low 30%+?

I do think this is implementable in normal games, but not in RIO Poker given how splash pot works. So unfortunate even if this is true, they cant implement this. Unless they change the nature of splash pot all together. lol

Run It Once Poker Hand #32495973: Omaha Pot Limit (€0.25/€0.50) - 2019/03/17 20:59 UTC [2019/03/17 21:59 CET]
Table ID '32482719' 6-Max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Alton A (€70.57 in chips)
Seat 2: Ryder Q (€51.28 in chips)
Seat 3: Oscar X (€255.61 in chips)
Seat 4: Wesley O (€50 in chips)
Seat 5: Dylan A (€63.48 in chips)
Seat 6: Kitsune (€60.40 in chips)
Alton A: posts small blind €0.25
Ryder Q: posts big blind €0.50
* HOLE CARDS
Dealt to Kitsune [Jh Jc 7d Td]
Oscar X: folds
Wesley O: folds
Dylan A: raises €1.25 to €1.75
Kitsune: calls €1.75
Alton A: raises €5.50 to €7.25
Ryder Q: folds
Dylan A: calls €5.75
Kitsune: calls €5.75
FLOP [3d Jd 2s]
Alton A: checks
Dylan A: bets €10.93
Kitsune: raises €41.97 to €52.90
Alton A: folds
Dylan A: calls €41.97
TURN [3d Jd 2s] [5s]
Dylan A: checks
Kitsune: checks
RIVER [3d Jd 2s 5s] [4s]
Dylan A: checks
Kitsune: checks
SHOWDOWN
Dylan A shows [Js 2d 6s 8d] for Flush [Js 6s 5s 4s 2s]
Dylan A collected €126.30 from pot
SUMMARY *
Total pot €128.80 | Rake €2.50
Board [3d Jd 2s 5s 4s]
Seat 3: Oscar X folded before Flop
Seat 4: Wesley O folded before Flop
Seat 2: Ryder Q (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 1: Alton A (small blind) folded before Turn
Seat 5: Dylan A showed [Js 2d 6s 8d] and won €126.30 with Flush high Js
Seat 6: Kitsune (button) mucked [Jh Jc 7d Td] and lost

sry guys, was running so fcking bad I had to "rage" quit. I dont rage much, but I was so tilted that all my focus had to go into my breathing. If I dont talk is it still consider streaming?

What is Fair Rake?

This two days players have been going off on the RIO Poker Discord about fair rake. Is the rake high or is the rake low or is the rake fair etc. To even begin talking about this I think we need some basic premises that we can agree on, if not there is no point talking about fairness.

1. Entrepreneurs or corporations must stand to make enough money to incentivize them to invest into the industry.
2. We want professional poker players, therefore games must be beatable across the board.

I am not here to argue whether number 2 should or shouldnt be true, but that is the premise we are talking about when we talk about RIO Poker. (i think?)

I dont have any data on premise 1, so I wouldnt know how much the cost of running a site will be once initial investment is recover and wont be talking about this too much. But I do want to say the problem with big corporations and public companies is that it must grow. Like it or not, you cant always grow in profits. So they cut rakeback which basically increases rake. For all we know they were already making a "FAIR" amount before the rakeback cut.

I do have a lot of opinions about premise 2. I cant remember who was it, but I remember reading it. During the whole PS cutting SNE debacle, I remember reading someone saying somewhere along the lines that there is something wrong with online poker if 200NL is full of professionals. While I do agree with the overall statement I dont know if I agree with the limit he set. I do think he was more familiar with live poker and 200NL live is a more casual stake. With multi tabling online, i think we might want to drop that stake to 100NL. But I digress.

This did weighted heavily on me, a "casual" stake shouldnt be fill with professionals. Now I do want to make a distinction between regular and professional, a regular might be a casual poker fan that will come play 1-2 hours every day but a professional is actually trying to make money from poker, if he or she fails, they will starve (aka me).

There is two things that RIOP needs to think about, first is winrate. How much should a professional win? how hard or easy should it be to breakeven? I see players defending RIOP saying micros are very beatable. Sure, but by how much? and how good do you need to be? If you need to be Phil Galfond to beat it at 4bb/100 at micros then clearly its a failure to me. So fair rake is not only about beating the game but the skill needed to beat it at different stakes.

And when we talk about winning players, what are the different level of winning players. I like to compare this to basketball. (assuming "pro" level starts at 200NL)

First of we have the d-league players, players that are good enough to be professional but are not quite there yet in skill to make it to the NBA. Maybe winrate around 0-2bb/100. Then there are your role players, probably coming off the bench, they are either vets or talented. Maybe winrate around 3-5bb/100. And off cause you have your starters, maybe 6-8bb/100. Then you have your all stars 8bb/100+, these guys should move up stakes. I dont know whether these winrate makes any sense or not, feel free to adjust it as you like. But do remember these are after RB, so I dont think its that crazy at all.

This are the pros, so what kind of winrate should we be seeing when we drop down stakes? This might be surprising, but I believe it shouldnt be that different, maybe just alittle bit more and as you drop stakes the differences becomes zero. So d-league player might make 2-4bb/100 at 100NL/50NL and 5-6bb/100 25NL below. I think we all know, that lower stakes will be rake more percentage wise due to max rake.

But if you think about it because the stake is twice the amount, making 4bb/100 at 200NL is twice as much as 4bb/100 at 100NL. If I can make 8bb/100 at 100NL and 4bb/100 at 200NL, I will never move up, why risk more when you can get the same hourly risking less?

I play pick up basketball a few times every week, these serious pick up players (regulars) should be able to win 100NL and lower for 0-2bb/100 or more (these guys might have aspire to be pro at one point or maybe pros that have retire). While the less serious pick up players or total beginners that just want to shoot some hoops and sweet a little will all be losing players.

Of cause this is totally over simplifying everything, at every stakes there is a player pool and when a winning player joins, everyones EV will drop. Which brings me to the second thing, player composition or ecosystem. The winrates I describe is assuming a perfect ecosystem.

Problem arises when there is not enough pickup players at professional stakes, causing winrate to drop across the board. The effect is d-league and bench players moving down. The extra winrate of d-league and bench professionals at casual stakes come from the fact that there arent many professionals and there isnt any starters or allstars. But when professionals and even starters start to drop down the casual stakes suddenly becomes the professional stake, this is really bad for everyone. Now the serious pick up players cant even win anymore.

This means the idea of fair rake is really complicated, because you cant look at any stake in a vacuum. You have to look at the whole poker ecosystem as a hold. And this also means fair rake is something that fluctuates. As winrate drops across the board and professional drop down in stakes, the rake should be lessen so professionals can make a decent hourly.

But if you are talking about a fair rake for micros, a serious pick up player that can beat 100NL for 0-2bb/100 should be able to beat 4NL by quite abit. And if they cant, maybe 4NL just doesnt make sense to begin with? There is a reason why casinos dont run 4NL.

Another point about fair rake, if we are talking about winnings in bb/100 we should be talking about max rake cap to be at a certain bb. And I do think that a 5bb rake cap is ALOT for any stake. Which means I do favor alot less rake for micro/small stakes and more rake for midstakes above (500+). Please no "more rake is better" jokes.

I dont know if these numbers are even possible, but if it is, the key is the ecosystem. Where should the buck of the poker site money comes from? If it doesnt have a healthy professional stake ecosystem, everything will crumble and its probably not possible for them to reduce the rake.

I know this is a highly controversial topic and people get really heated when talking about this, but this is just my opinion. You dont have to agree with it and WOW that was a long post.

Stay Zen.

Mental Game - What Is Bad Luck?

Luck certainly have been given a bad rep in poker. Players that talk about being lucky or unlucky are look down upon. Some say there is no such thing as luck or luck averages out in the long run or luck averages in a huge sample size.

What is a long run? what is a huge sample size? I think this is where people dont quite understand how it works, at least how I think it works.

There is a famous story about Wall Street investors. Say the company get a new Alumni of 10000 investors. So happen, these guys are really average and only have a 50% chance of being ahead at the end of the year. And given the cruel nature of the job, if you are not ahead you are fired. You are one of these guys, what do you think your chance of succeeding after 10 years?

You are right if you are thinking you are not going to make it. There is only about 0.05% chance you will succeed. But there is where the law of large numbers comes into play. With a alumni of 10000 people, on average 9.8 people will come out ahead EVERY year flipping coins. Have you ever win or lose 10 coin flips in a row?

The same idea was demonstrated by Derren Brown famous British mentalist where he flip a coin and got head or tails (cant remember) 10 times in a row. You might think its a trick, but it wasnt, he really did it. What you didnt know is that he was flipping coins the whole day for hours until he got a string of 10 heads or tails in a row. And if he spend more time flipping, he would have eventually gotten 11 or 12 or 13 in a row.

Now think of the whole poker ecosystem and a single entity. Hundreds of thousands or more hands played by thousands or more players everyday. While you only have a 0.05% of running that bad, SOMEONE is almost CERTAINLY going to run that bad.

And if you take poker from its conception to now, billions of hands played by millions of players, someone is almost certainly going to be at the end of the unlucky curve.

The bright side is, its really unlikely that the person is you, the opposite is true and you can be on the lucky side of the curve and most importantly we aint flipping coins in poker; we should definitely have an edge if we are serious about poker. (although from what I hear, even the best players only win about 55% of their sessions, so probably not that far from a coin flip)

What is the point of this? I dont know, I just like numbers, probability and thinking about stuff. At the end of the day, it really doesnt matter where you are on the lucky/unlucky curve, is what you are going to do about it that matters. But I will never dismiss it, cause the math checks out.

Stay Zen.

Should I stream Poker?

So if you have been reading this blog, you know I wanted to stream other games initially even though I was a Poker player. Why didnt I just started with streaming poker if I was going to get into streaming?

I just didnt see much incentive to do so. Streaming is a tough gig, takes months or years to build an audience and most streamers dont get paid much at all if anything. Even at 50PLO, the swings will look so much more than what twitch can offer.

What RIO poker did is give streamers more incentive, as long as they make a certain tier they get paid in rakeback. This is really nice, but in terms of hourly, it is only a small increase from your poker winrate. From my Feb data its about 3.5euro/hr. So I might be able to get about 550-600 Euro if I go for 160hr/month. While you cant complain about free money, this money is not free, you have to work for it, hard.

And when I say its tough to stream poker, it is hard to stay focus and play your A game for 8 hours while constantly talking about hands and engaging your chat. Especially when you are down 10BI and get 4bet in a 12bb splash pot with a 225bb deep stack, you call and get shove on the flop by air except 2BDFD and your opponent gets there. Its really hard to keep a positive energy and keep grinding following your schedule.

But does this guy look like he just lost 12BI and got suck out by a runner runner flush?
Absolutely not, thats because of this.

WE GOT OUR FIRST SUB! I always had an inkling that there is something about streaming and engaging with people in a positive way. Thanks Snorkyp1e for being the first sub.

Only time will tell if I manage to grow my stream to hit the upper tiers of StreamR or twitch partner program or get another sub. I hope I do.

So is streaming poker worth it? If you are a crusher or planning to put the work in to be a crusher, money wise, most probably not. But if one sub can put a smile like that on your face, then its probably worth a shot. As cliche as it sounds, its not about the money. The extra rakeback is bonus. Thats why I mention in the earlier post I have to be a poker player first and streamer second, cause if I dont win at poker the extra rakeback and twitch isnt going to be enough to pay my bills.

P.S Now I have to go find out how to get emotes and sub badges..which will cost me, but how awesome it will be to have my own emotes and badges. :)

Stay Zen.

Run It Once Poker Hand #32050778: Omaha Pot Limit (€0.25/€0.50) - 2019/03/06 20:28 UTC [2019/03/06 21:28 CET]
Table ID '32044477' 6-Max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Dan T (€58.01 in chips)
Seat 2: Ronnie K (€122.64 in chips)
Seat 3: Sean S (€135.09 in chips)
Seat 4: Kitsune (€74.59 in chips)
Seat 5: Alexander F (€49.26 in chips)
Seat 6: James G (€69.30 in chips)
Dan T: posts small blind €0.25
Ronnie K: posts big blind €0.50
* HOLE CARDS
Dealt to Kitsune [Ah Jh Qc 8c]
Sean S: raises €1.25 to €1.75
Kitsune: raises €4.25 to €6
Alexander F: folds
James G: folds
Dan T: folds
Ronnie K: raises €13.50 to €19.50
Sean S: folds
Kitsune: calls €14
FLOP [Ts Ac 4h]
Ronnie K: bets €39.90
Kitsune: raises €14.69 to €54.59
Ronnie K: calls €14.69
TURN [Ts Ac 4h] [7s]
Ronnie K: checks
Kitsune: checks
RIVER [Ts Ac 4h 7s] [2s]
Ronnie K: checks
Kitsune: checks
SHOWDOWN
Ronnie K shows [6d 5c Ks Js] for Flush [Ks Js Ts 7s 2s]
Ronnie K collected €148.68 from pot
SUMMARY *
Total pot €151.18 | Rake €2.50
Board [Ts Ac 4h 7s 2s]
Seat 5: Alexander F folded before Flop
Seat 6: James G (button) folded before Flop
Seat 1: Dan T (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Sean S folded before Flop
Seat 2: Ronnie K (big blind) showed [6d 5c Ks Js] and won €148.68 with Flush high Ks
Seat 4: Kitsune mucked [Ah Jh Qc 8c] and lost

Games are not dead, but if I dont run better, I might be.

Early in the morning thoughts:

Expectations are important. Some would say the secret to happiness is low expectation. Then the secret to human fulfillment or a meaningful life is having the right expectations.

What makes a poker session a good session. Its a good session if I played good poker and made good decisions.

What makes a good streaming session. Its a good streaming session if I enjoyed myself and connect with my audience (even if its just one person)

I want to be as stoic as possible and say that we should only focus on things in our control. But the fact of life is everything in intertwine. Would a stream still be a stream if there was no on to watch? Would I still be a professional poker player if I dont win?

So what makes a good poker month?

1. I played 'good' volume
2. I spend 'good' amount of time studying
3. I played 'good' poker
4. I made 'good' money

Of cause the definition of 'good' will be up to the individual.

Im tired. Good night. Stay Zen.

Streaming PLO and Channel Growth

Poker is kind of a niche game when it comes to streaming. If you dont know the rules and nuance of poker, you are probably not going to watch someone play poker on Twitch. Its really different compare to action games like Fortnite or Apex Legend. You dont need to know the meta-game or details about the weapons, all you need to know is that its a Battle Royal. And its always fun to see good players shoot down others.

And this idea I think becomes more true when moving from tournament poker to cash games and even more from NLHE to PLO. Which means there is probably only a very small group of people that would come and watch PLO on Twitch unless its High Stakes. Everyone love watching high stakes regardless of the format.

That would probably be the challenge moving from Tier 1 up. Tier 2 might be possible if I put in ALOT of streaming hours. But Tier 3 really requires me to build up an audience. I have been watching smaller streamers for a long time and hearing their stories. These streamers might average 40-100 viewers and they took 1 year or even 2-3 years to build that up. They got lots of heart for sure.

Viewer retention is important of cause. People that like you will come back to support you. Improving the quality of my stream is something I can work on (all suggestions are welcome). But I dont think I can change the "type" of streamer I am. My personality is more suited to be a more calm person and I want to make the stream educational. Watching back the 400bb Twitch clip I realize I barely flinch after winning like 5 buyins in one pot, it wasnt even splash.

And then there is like ALOT of StreamR. I recently listen to a podcast by Nigahiga with dogdog and itsHafu. One youtuber and two veteran twitch streamers. There is a difference when it comes to viewership of youtube vs twitch. Youtube videos are uploaded after the fact and Twitch streaming is live, which creates more competition.

So what do you do when the pie is small? You bake a bigger pie. The two obvious audience are people that plays PLO but are not on twitch and those on twitch but dont watch PLO. The latter is especially true for twitch viewers that would watch NLHE or tournaments but not PLO. This is just a thought, but if I am serious about being a PLO poker streamer and not doing it just because "hey rakeback" then it would seem its also my job to promote the great game of PLO to NLHE players and to promote Twitch to PLO players. Seems like alot of work but this is just a random thought on a random Saturday night.

Stay Zen.
PS. Will be streaming tomorrow.

Thats 200 hours watched right there. I am really happy to manage to get to tier 1 this month. Thanks You Phil Galfond and RIOPoker team for making tier 1 so achievable and of cause thank you everyone that drop by the stream to hangout. Lets go!

Some players wonder if the games are any good in RIO Poker

400bb Easy Take a look for yourself.

Roller coaster of emotions, although I look pretty calm on stream. 1000bb Splash drama!

Another thing about big splash pot. Thinking about the variance, it actually isnt a high variance spot in the sense you are risking little to make ALOT. The EV of the situation is enormous. The high variance comes in when the 1k splash happens so infrequent. If you only get one of those pots every month, the variance is never going to average out. You are going to be way ahead or way behind throughout the year on 1k splash pots.

while I am not in favor of the big splash pots and agree with deep stack have less EV compare to small stack. I dont have a problem with players punting it off at the 24bb splash pots. I am actually pretty happy about it cause it gives me an edge. I am even happier to see players punting it off 100bb when the splash is only 3bb. At 1000bb splash is pure gamble cause its obvious everyone should put it in. At 24bb there is skill cause not everyone knows what to put in and what not to.

Interesting thought. I never really thought about a method to help me accept things as they are and that are outside of my control rather than to just accept them. To process my emotions quickly and to focus on what I am going to do next.

I would suggest reading this: What matters most by James Collins. The first chapter itself dive deep into living in fear.

I do believe fear is always an indicator of something deeper within us. It is a primal instinct. And to understand it we will have to peel it off the layers. If we try to address the symptom rather than the root cause we will never overcome it. All the best.

Tcallas I got no problem with that at all although I dont particularly like gambling myself (ironic I know), and if that is what RIO is trying to do that is fair enough. But I dont know if that is what RIO is trying to achieve here and if it is I would appreciate it if they say it like it is.

Secondly, it is not a bit of gamble. 10-16BI pots isnt abit when you are a 6-max grinder. It is quite a lot of gamble. My suggestion of 5bb max splash is what I would call abit of gamble as it creates a ratio similar to 23bb short stack game. So in that case I dont actually even mind "abit" of gamble.

Of cause I understand that this 5bb suggestion isnt particularly exciting but at least I am still playing poker.

Also note that it created a situation where you have to flip for a big pot 6 ways with a insanely huge pot which is really crazy in term of variance. Sure while being a super rare situation it would not matter for average variance over the board if you do the math for all players, but for the particular player where this does happen to, it would matter quite alot I think. Its a 16 BI or a 10 BI pot, I have played 6 max for 8 years, I probably have only played an 8-9 BI pot like 2-3 times and it was at PLO.

And while I do trust Phil on the math, I still dont see it. The person that won the 16 BI pot at that moment is winning hundreds of times more rakeback than they should be earning at that moment. How does that later average out? I cant see how it does, can someone show me the math I am missing here. Now imagine if someone can get that lucky, it goes without saying that someone is also capable of getting very unlucky.

Which brings me to another question I have. When the other 5 players do lose on that 16BI pot, how does that affects their rakeback? I am guessing that it does affects their rakeback but not by much cause the cost of variance will be share by all players in the pool. So if a huge chunk of money is remove from the rakeback pool the cost is share among all the players. And the bigger the pool the smaller the cost and the 'huge chunk' to thousands of players is not that huge, but that is only assuming you have a large player base.

Edit: Ignore that last part, just when though the RIO Poker Post #7. I understand now how the splash is calculated. The only factor affecting splash is the rake of the previous hand of that table. And if I am understanding this right the way variance happens in the rakeback is the same as the way variance happens in poker.

Just watch the Joeingram podcast with Phil where they showed and was talking about the 2k splash pot which I might be wrong but I believe it was 1000bb? And they go on to talk about another 400bb splash pot.
It is hard to imagine how everyone is going to get their fair share of 51% when there is such big splashes but I trust Phil and his team and I assume they did the math.
However that is not my issue I want to bring forth. IMO this should never have happen. I am totally against any splash amount that would remove playing poker at all. When the pot is so big relative to your stack, there isnt any poker to be played.
I am aware that players did fold and there is money to grab but I dont even know if that is a good thing for RIO Poker since they want it to be fair. And I am also aware that this is probably really rare, but it should not happen 1% of the time, it should happen 0% of the time.
I think 5bb is probably the upper limits, it make a 100bb stack have about 15.3 STP ratio while without splash is 66.67 STP ratio.
I guess the point I want to make is for smaller size splash more frequently and totally removing spash that remove poker game play.

Quido Hey, I didnt address anything this guy said. But I dont like the PS comparison because he is wrong so lets just call him a retard.
Wow, you will get far in life. Salute.