KGBeard

sauloCosta10 what an amazing post. Has to be one of the best posts that I have read on the poker forum and I have been around. Thank you! GL saulocosta10 with his project and OP with your goals.

Think that the bigest lesson I got from your questions/answers is how much big of a equity drop multiway is and how much bigger impact it has compared to "good" pot odds. Thanks for sharing this, it pushed my thinkig in the right direction... :)

1) fold
2) open
3) open

1. cold 4b
2. fold
3. fold

now I was thinking/calculating in flopzilla (without seeing that I already posted "bet/fold" in this thread as we do improve our equity on the turn and yada yada yada) that maybe betting turn is not the best option as his range will consist of mostly strong hands (vs utg open from the blinds... damn even QQ could be in his pre calling range) , combo draws (with a pair or something else that will not fold that actually give us some reverse implied odds) and few medium (or call em marginal) strength hands that now have pick up some backdoor equity and might not fold to a turn bet. I actually worked in flopzilla this spot vs average tight reg's range in this spot.. so my estimations could be off

What I would like to know is if we are not going to barrel probably the best (semibluffing) card for us... should we cbet the flop in the first place ? tight range does hit it somewhere around 60% (or we could bet little less on the flop ?)

sorry if I'm derailing or if I'm posting a bad analysis ... I'm just trying to get better esp. when it comes to ranges and probability so I play around flopzilla more then usual

I have a feeling that flop and turn really depends on a sample size/villain :)

You will not see a reg potting on this flop into 2 other guys oop without very strong hand... and also you have blockers to T8s and J8s ... the only weaker hands you are going to get value from so I would lean towards flatitng flop vs reg and call turn... As played I think that turn would be close

if you have a decent sample on a  villain and he is really 70/40 then I like raise/gii flop obv.. I like turn call and fold river (yea it sucks with those pot odds) 

edit: actually vs 70/40 guy river is probably very close and maybe even a call as they tend to button smash a lot :)

bet/fold turn .... there are some reverse implied odds even when you hit your gin card