Jugi6
15 points
I wanted to make a research about situation what is somewhat like this: There is 201 left and 200 paid. I'm assuming the average stack is about 40bb and hero's stack is 10bb. I'm assuming there is some players with less than 8bb.
What I want to know is:
1. Is there any tools (ICM-calculators?) to get the $-value of stack if we know all the numbers (stacks and payouts).
2. If there is no tools is there anyone or any source to get some stack-value/ICM calculations with numbers somewhat similir to mines?
With quick googling I founded a lot of HH-analysis of an ICM in FT-spots, but not any good and mathematical ICM-analysis of a large field MTT-bubble spots.
Nov. 12, 2013 | 1:19 a.m.
River seems easy bet-fold. He is bluffing close to 0% and not likely to valuebet light (AA, AK). His line looks like a some pot-controlled hand (AA, AK) with sd-value that he is pretty likely to call again on the river.
With given reads I would fold pre against 3bet.
If we check the river, fold against that bet-size seems fine.
July 12, 2013 | 10:06 a.m.
April 9, 2013 | 2:29 p.m.
April 9, 2013 | 10:36 a.m.
Jan. 15, 2013 | 1:26 p.m.
We could be up against two valuecombos: QdJd and KK. QdJd plays the whole hand this way almost 100% of the time, but KK does not. It is probably right to assume that KK is shoving the river close to 100% of the time (even though I agree with many others in this thread that it actually should be a flat), but KK is for sure 3-betting pre a lot, raising flop some % and raising turn some %.
I expect to see a bluff, missclick or something even more random an extremely tiny % of time.
It's quite funny that this hand ends with both players putting the money in quite unhappily. I guess this is a kinda spot where even most good players are fooled for a second by the absolute hand strengths. Having a super rare hand is not necessarily the same than having a super strong hand.
The pot is 8450 so I would bet something like 6400. Basicly I would just try to bet an amount that I think he can't fold AA or AK against.
July 16, 2013 | 11:38 a.m.