IReallyLikeYou

Hand History for Game
$1/$2 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, March 23, 01:17:48 EDT 2016
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6/6
Seat 5: BTN ( $180 USD )
Seat 1: Hero ( $203 USD )
Seat 2: Hijack ( $567.13 USD )
Seat 3: CO ( $159.01 USD )
Seat 6: SB ( $226.11 USD )
SB posts small blind [$1 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$2 USD].
* Dealing down cards *
Dealt to Hero [ Ah Qh ]
Hijack folds
CO raises [$6 USD]
BTN folds
SB folds
Hero calls [$4 USD]
* Dealing Flop * [ 8h, Ks, 7h ]
Hero checks
CO bets [$6 USD]
Hero raises [$18 USD]
CO raises [$38 USD]

Ran into this spot against a weak reg - 29/16/ 1.8 Agg / 3.1% 3bet over 1.8k hands. Unfortunately although I remember he was splashing around a bit more than usual, it may have been later in the session than when this hand came up. My only note on him is that he 4bet me once to an absurd size in position (37.5bbs).

Usually I'd 3-bet here pre (and should probably done so especially against this guy who calls 52% of 3bets) but have been thinking about when to mix up by calling AK and hands like this from the blinds. Probably should never do it against this guy in retrospect.

I ran an odds oracle simulation (shown below) giving heavy weight to sets, 87 and combo draws but lower weights to other flush draws (most of which we unfortunately block) and tiny weight to something like K8 or K7 or a naked OESD. This gave us 40% equity on the flop, which I assume comes down to the math of whether shoving over or calling and hoping to bink is better? I think the problem with just calling is that we get pushed off our equity in the hand almost always on the turn. Of course if we 4bet we're getting it in bad very often.

If anyone has any advice as to approaching the math of calling vs. shoving (either in hand or in review after) or any suggestions regarding my equity simulations (which I'm new to) I'd much appreciate it.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.28 Professional)

Holdem, Generic syntax


Board - Ks8h7h


PLAYER1 AhQh


PLAYER2 (KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,QhTh)@35,(JhTh,Th9h,6h5h,5h4h)@70,(8x7x,8x7y)@64,(KK,88,77)@82,(AA,Kx8x,Kx7x)@10,(Tx9y,6x5y)@10

600000 trials (randomized)

All-in Equity

Equity %Wins Hi %Ties Hi %Wins Hi CountTies Hi Count
AhQh40.1050%40.1050%0.0000%2406300
(KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,QhTh...59.8950%59.8950%0.0000%3593700