HotChip

25:10 75s 3B BvB vers a pretty decent reg. What's your thought process in this spot & what's the plan vs a 4B? Is this a bluff or a value bluff with a hand that has some tricky implied equity when it smacks some boards? Thanks.

27:21 In villain's spot ooP when having such condensed ranges on these type of low/middling paired boards what would be your CB'ing & x.r'ing ranges (value & bluffs)?

18:48 QQ hand vs Chinese fish is standard (even JJ, imo), but what's your general approach with some more cuspy hands like 99-TT AQo & suited (or even 88 & AJs if you've seen them do the sort of stuff you explain in the vid, like calling 4Bs ooP w/ random stuff & spewing it off post)? Thanks in advance.

41:58 A2s hand vs a SQ is a fold but what's your general approach vs SQ'es in that scenario (which hands do you tend to 4B bluff & call with, especially if let's say the BTN was a fish & the regs don't bluff but have allot of thin value 3B's that hate life vs 4Bs?)

hey nick, great video, i suffered this exact mental problem and i found an analogy that explains the core idea of what your saying that helped me a lot.

the road to our goals is seen by many like the climb of a mountain, and sometimes the fear of falling down off the mountain makes us take decisions that keep us at the same elevation point forever which feels more safe from a psychological point of view, because the summit is still closer to us than if we would fall down. this view of one mountain is wrong. the more correct way to see the road to our goals is to see it as a series of mountain peaks in an ascending order (exactly like the graph of a wining poker player) and the road goes up to a summit than in order to reach the next summit we should go down a little because that's how the road of variance is. when we are at one summit and we see the next summit sometimes the road in between is covered in fog (the fog of uncertainty that is) so we are afraid to go down that road because in a vertical sense we get further from the next summit, but in an horizontal sense we get closer because the bottom of the next summit is closer to it than the previous summit even if doesn't feel that way. because of the fog people avoid the road that reaches the next peak because of fear that this road is the wrong way. there is no way of avoiding variance, as there is no way of flying between the mountains, we must walk the ups and downs of the road to success. this view helped me a lot because when you see your next downswing as the road between two mountains you know that you get closer to your goals than if you keep staying breakeven forever.

what do you mean by "black and white proof"?

22:15 - I don't think 97dd will get 100% to the river because it will shove turn.

What winrate do you have at zoom games and on what samples ?

Folding QKo from bb vs MP open at 12:20, you should at least try to make a disciplined 3b bluff with it.

have to mention i have only seen have of the vid yet.

appreciate the video and i like your thinking process, but for me it really feels like those were some really horrible bluffs by villains in many of the hands, i wish i could see more close or common spots, or at least facing better players.

hello, i dont understand why is it a mandatory bet on the river with this hand, what does the bet realise? is this a value bet, or a bluff?  it seems from the comments above that the bet is a bluff because there is not enough showdown value in checking (which i am not sure), but if that's the case what hands better then ours we can make him fold?

the extreme cases are probably easier, this case was vs a decent aggresive reg with a balanced 3b range, QQ+,AK + sombe bluffs + some thin value vs fish like TT,JJ,AJ-AQ, KQ, KJs;

the problem with 4b/stacking off is that if he starts calling some 4bets ip and shoves only QQ+,AK we are at best breakeven if we are considering the rake. the total pot is 202.5bb, and if we iso rs 4x (he 3b to 12x) and 4b to 28, we have 72/202.5=35.5% pot odds and 36% equity. that is not the only problem, because if we 4b JJ+, AK and not calling 3bets oop, then we cant defend enough vs his 3bets because we cant 4bet very wide vs a strategy of calling 4bets ip. but by calling 3bets oop, and 4betting polarised we can defend enough.  so i am not sure which strategy is best vs a decent reg.

because Tx is a very weak hand even vs a range consisting of only bluffs, the call it's awful because if you had "the info" that he has a bluff you MUST always shove and NEVER call, because you cant be sure that his range of bluffs is consisting only of draws and not random hands like Q2o or J3cc. i can agree that the river looks very bluffy, but the problem is that you payed two streets only for the opportunity that the perfect run-out comes on the river in order to eliminate his value range. So what was your plan on flop and turn, what you hoped to accomplish?

at the beginning of the video in the first hand when hero holds TT, you say that the bb cant have AK because he would normally squeeze it preflop, even if it would probably have been better to just call with AK, you say, and i cant understand why would be better. can you explain that? thank you

at 23:00 you flat QQ in BB 3way vs an utg open and a sb call with 40bb effective; isnt this a standard squeeze spot especially after you put in some 3bets? i mean QQ it doesnt play great 3way, pretty often there will be a K or an A on the flop (i think around 37% of the time; 20% A-high and 17% K-high), so could you explain why do you think it plays better with a flat instead of a squeeze? thank you

i thought afterwards that you could vbet very weak against the fish (20-30) and fold vs any raise. he probably would call with 9x, tx, or maybe even 88

i dont think the bu would raise the monsters on the flop, i mean it's not a standard. the value range for raising the flop is 99 and A3s, because with some of the fd hands (AQs, AJs, KQs) would have probably squeezed, and with sc would only call for sure. Besides that, with 99 has reason to slowplay, to let both of you put money in the pot on flop and turn, and maybe stack you off when fd hits.

Also, i dont think is any value in betting the river, because the only hand that bu could have that you beat is ATd, or maybe 9Ts (1combo).

It's hard to imagine that co bluffs in this spot, because there are two people to act after him and the sizing is so weak, but with a fish you never know. without any aditional reads, the standard should be c/f, but you cant mistake too much when you have such a good price.