HinduReal

I might be at a loss here. Please elaborate :)

Yeah, I get that and fully agree. But I think there is some merit in knowing what one should do in theory in a given spot. That doesn't equate to executing it if there's a more +EV alternative. I think a good thought process looks like this:

1. Know what would be optimal vs balanced villain
2. Understand mistakes population/player type/villain make in that spot
3. Exploit to a reasonable degree

Thus, getting back to the hand above, I think this is a board where we want to have a raising range OTR. Therefore I wonder what a good bluffing range would look like - even if I might decide not to have a bluffing range at all in practice. I think peri0404's suggestion makes sense.

Why would you check turn 6x at double flushdraw texture?

I wouldn't. But if a villain took such a line, I wouldn't disregard it. Plenty FPS around in the micros...

I would just cut thinking about blockers and stuff, its not that close. Its just not a spot where I expect NL10 population to fold enough against raise.

I suppose you're right. My question - and I failed to point that out - was meant more in terms of this being a spot to bluff in theory vs well-balanced, thinking opposition. I.e. "if we had a bluff-raising range in this spot, what would it look like and would hero's hand be a part of it". I definitely wasn't clear enough.

Why do you suggest checking that flop? It's a pretty good flop to get value from villain's PF calling range

The turn is almost definitely a bet (if called, I bet like 1/3-1/2 pot OTR.).

As played, you can't fold on the river, imho. You say villain is rather aggro post-flop. If that translates to him floating many flops, he'll barrel turn with a wide range, including many draws that don't hit and continue barrelling.

What do you think villains calling range looks like OTF?

Villain's hands that crush you: 99 (3), TT(3), QJs(4) = 10 combos
Villain's hands you crush: JJ(6), KQ(12), KJs(3), AQ(8), AJ(8), ATs(2), QTs(3), JTs(4) = 46 combos
Hands villain sometimes has: 88 (6), 98s(3), QQ(6) (depending on 3-betting tendencies PF).

So, what hands can you expect an aggro villain to bet if you check turn?

All the hands that crush you = 10 combos
KQ(12), KJs(3), AQ(3), AJ(8), QTs(1), JTs(1) = 30 combos (assuming villain is reasonable enough to not turn decent SDV hands without clubs into bluffs. which aggro NL10 villain might actually do. Also, I assume avg villains don't balance properly and check hands like KJ back)
If villain sometimes peels with 88, I'd add that to his turn betting range as well.

The river doesn't improve villain's range, unless the odd times he has 88.

So, the question now is, what does villain bet that size with OTR?

All his top combos for sure = 10 combos
How many of the remaining combos does villain bet? That certainly depends on how villain perceives your range OTR and how wide he value bets (I think its a spot where he should have different bet sizes but we don't know he does). Without going into details, here's my assumption:

KQ(12), AQ(3), AJ(8) = 23 Combos
Basically he value bets KQ, bluffs missed draws with good straight/AK blockers. Also, I wouldn't entirely discount that he sometimes might turn his QTs(1), JTs(1) into bluffs as well.

And even if you have reason to believe that villain never value bets KQ here (which I absolutely would do, though smaller), villain has enough bluffing combos to make calling +EV. AA is simply too high up in your range to fold here. Plus, all the estimates here assume that villain is rather selective about choosing his bluffs OTT. He might well overbluff.

Not referring to the hand in question but as a general remark:

I just recently took up poker again after not playing for like 5 years. So I'm by no means an expert on the micros pool (I played 20-something k hands so far). That said, at least when it comes to Stars - where you probably have the toughest micros pool - I wouldn't use the above as my basic assumption.

At least in 5NL, you have a rather heterogeneous reg pool with a few archetypes, e.g.:

a) nitty, passive, pretty straight-forward
b) surprisingly decent players (i.e. solid ranges in many spots)
c) overly aggressive 2007-style players

My database is by no means large enough to give valid estimates of the distribution. So I go with a guesstimate based on the tables I'm usually sitting at. You'll usually have 1, sometimes 2 fish at the (6max) table. The other players are usually randomly distributed on the competency scale and, thus, often capable of folding decent hands.

Therefore, I think it's a critical skill to put the regs in the correct subgroup quickly. Whereas you might find more homogeneous reg pool (i.e. a common foundational competency level), I wouldn't advise coming up with broad population reads in the micros pool. Villains there are literally all over the place

The reason I called OTF is basically that I expected his range to be much narrower. I might be wrong though (#samplesize). When your estimation is correct, it's certainly a fold. Vs a narrower range containing relatively more AK and fewer combos with a Q it's still close but I don't mind it IP.

I did some playing around with my range on the turn and river. My conclusion is that I would range check the turn (even if balance wasn't a concern b/c villain doesn't have too many hands I could get 3 streets from on that board). I'd arrive at the river with 10 combos I'd value bet, 12 combos I'd check behind and 6 combos of 99, literally at the bottom of my range.

Now, the question is, basically, if I do want to have a bluffing range on that river vs that villain type on 5NL. Most people tend to think no. In that case - and to come full circle - it's probably the case that calling OTF is actually not worth it.