Grinder87

Fold vs turnbet, you might be able to fold vs the flop check-raise but I am guessing you are somewhere in the top of your range so you feel the need to defend vs the check/raise but I don't think people bluff in these spots a lot

You might actually can fold vs the flop raise. That flop hits the limpers range the hardest out of the 3 of you. vs the turnbet def fold

On the river before he bets his range is basically
Cat 1: Complete bluffs (89dd for example)
Cat 2: Showdown value (77-TT)
Cat 3: Hands we split Ax(A2-A5, A7-AJ)
Cat 4: Hands I lose to 56, A6, 66 and very rarely 67(maybe only the combo with the backdoor)

Damn. I should really call this 2x over bet and just pray for the split? I mean It seems like such a bad proposition versus a guy who plays 21/13 with an AF 1.5 over 300 hands(missed a 0 in the op). I probably have never a 6 in my range in this specific spot so I guess that's another reason to call...

Think about your complete range you have called with preflop. Than find out how often you have to defend versus a c-bet. If you know how often you have to defend you better understand which parts of your range you have to fold and which you have to defend with. I mean I can only imagine you have to call 88 here otherwise you would be folding huge parts of your range.

That makes a lot of sense Haru, well explained Haru. Thanks.

I agree that we can c-bet here every time but i want to know why you use different bet sizes and when and how?

What i get from your post(excuse me if i don't understand it) Is that every time you when pot in this spot it's an automatic stack-off and bluffs are smaller? that seems like something regulars could pick up easily.

So lets assume hero started with 100bbs, because under that assumption you wrote this post i believe.

Do you pot in this spot all your bluffs? I always feel it's really hard to balance on a board like this because i do want to c- bet a high frequency here. Let's say you c-bet 80% of your 3-bet range, are that all pot sized bets?

Combowise it makes sense to have J9 as an only bluffcatcher because there are more AA combo's which he will only use to bluff and having an ace in your hand reduces the amount of AA drastically.

There is not much more i cant add, though spot. Is villains play any good to do this with AA and AJ(maybe even J9)? I would like to read some more on this spot too

Fold vs the reraise preflop. If you are up against AAxx and you have an ace in your hand your hand is a lot less worth in low SPR scenario's postflop. I mean i probably fold vs the button iso.. since you are not closing action and utg might do some tricky stuff, being OOP..

I call preflop because of play ability. Second i think river a very though call, but maybe he calls with a gutshot and overpair on the flop and might try to bluff you of aces on later streets.. pretty sick play by villain

I have issues calling this river because
he calls flop with 4x, some gutshots + overpair and maybe some 8x

So we have to assume he overplays 4x or turns his hand into a bluff while has showdown value. For both of these assumptions you need some specific reads.

Any good ABB8 or 78 should be a raise on the flop imo, that's the way villain will make expensive mistakes and you don't want to give a worser 8 the chance to outdraw you cheaply. Because of this reason i would also attack this flop hard. Any other 8x(and worse) and reasonable draws im calling on the flop. I'd choose to raise/fold in this particular spot with this hand since villain cant do much about it with this stack depth and being OOP. He might call with his weaker 8x hands, AA+some draw or something and we can check it down if we hit our flush or straight. Or we can continue barreling on Ax card(trying make him fold an 8). Eitherway, I see many benefits of raising and that comes mainly because of our stackdepth and being IP.

Without significant reads i like the hand the way you played it. not sure about the river bet, i dont think there are many hands villain can call with. If you have certain reads or a dynamic going on you can bet for value or check to induce depending on the tendencies of villain but with current info given i think you played the hand fine.

(I guess betting turn, checking river is just about the worst line I could take)
Why would you say this?

20% is a fairly wide utg opening range. QJT and small wraps with hearts seems very possible and consisted with his weird line, im stacking off and make notes of his tendencies.

Villain need to be bluffing first for hero to be bluffcatching and i dont think he is bluffing much. Anything with twopair probably checks behind. QQ+ he is betting but probably a lot smaller to get value from twopairs, and there isnt a lot naked JJ,99 that calls flop imo i think hero should fold.

What hands we should be bluffcatching with? probably something with a J or 9 in it without the ace of spades.

Because of reverse implied odds and how face up your flushdraw is and being OOP i dont like turn xc fwiw, prefer a xf over a xc and above all i prefer a bet/fold.

You have a blocker for T97, i dont think he calls many KK or JJ on the flop, maybe something with a gutshot. Eitherway, i think you are pinpointing on a very narrow part of his range while he might have that sometimes, he has j9 far to often and everything is consistend with that hand.

I wonder about villains betsizing, shouldn't he be potting on the river?

I'd prefer a small flopraise vs villain with the intention to fold vs a reraise. It seems very hard to have a turnraising range in this spot, would you wait for the turn with 78/AKQ8 to raise vs this villain? Would you raise 96 on the turn? personally I like a very agressive flop approach IP and especially this deep, villain couldn't do much about it...

I would like your play if villain played very agressive and wasn't so tight and just overall way more agressive. I doubt this player c-bets a large part of his 3-bet range on the flop and that he continues to do so on the turn. If this is the type of player that would just press pot/pot then i would like your play a lot but not vs this guy, he seems honest.

On AQ75:
In general you should be folding to the 4-bet any hand with an ace in it OR NON-premium pairs(like KK78ss). So you shouldnt arrive postflop with AQ75, that said, your ace outs arent likely so you have two queens left, three sevens and three fives for twopair outs, so with your AQ75 example. You have 8 outs left. This means you have 32%(4*8). But we haven't accounted yet for villains redraws, even if we hit two pair they won't be good all the time so we have to subtract outs(or percentages) because villain can make an higher two pair or a set or even has backdoors.. dont want to get in the math right now but if you are interested you can look the articles from plo from scratch and then the 4-betting article i think. So in this case with AQ75 it seems like an fold on the flop since our odds arent good enough.

Q567 seems like a really bad preflop 3-bet. However, as played you have to go all in on the flop since you have a lot of two pair or better outs, 11 "raw" outs so that is much better.

I'd fold, i can't find any upside to shoving this. Not sure why you had to mention that he had QQ88ss, you didn't know he was capable of spewing like that so this seems like a easy fold

i had given this raising range to villain, this is done very quickly and obvious missing a lot like pairs+straightdraws, and straight fd but but w/e, it would be a really small part of his range anyway.

53+,246+,(3,5,J):ss,Ass with hero having the ace of spades hero has 30% equity, villain rasing freq is 16%

53+,246+,(3,5,J):ss,Ass with hero having the Ace of hearts hero has 37% equity villain raising freq 28%

If you think villain is raising tight, like you said in OP it is a clear bet/fold

And about preflop; these aces arent 'good' they are some were in the middle. They are good in position and if you have an idea about your opponent.. They might be good also OOP, but you need to know your opponent and always have a gameplan ready imo

Preflop is fine considering strength of the hand and your relative position.

Im not sure why you are combining the vpips? What is MP's vpip's and fold to cbet?

I would just try to find out how often his range has a 5, 34+, cc+

I would be inclined to fold since we hold the Ac, thinking about it... if he does donkbets 50%+ in this spot it seems like a automatic shove.

That example does look marginal but what about a hand like JT68, or KK78, (having an open ender plus something to go with it). i l'ld like a lead/call with that and btn can still incorrect fold some of his aces on the flop which would be a good result for us.

This play that hero makes i like it a lot actually, i just think you need some specific reads for this. Probably would like it more if BB was tight.

we should run some numbers on how often villain have a pair plus open-ender or tp+ and we get a much better idea of what to do but dont want to get into that right now

Hero won't have many value hands so it's hard to rep. In general, I woud just bet here with hands that paired with board+gutshot and better. This way villain will make mistakes vs your range. Also, we want to have some equity when we stab/bet and we probably have 10% for the turn and we dont know much about villains range, If BB was really tight, i'd like this bet a lot more.

I would just call preflop and b/f this flop. Villains range is to strong especially with holding the As and we don't know anything about villains preflop range...

Disharmonist, i ran some numbers on this yesterday and i was really surprised, we are making a lot of money by raising this and getting it in, just mainly because of fold equity and we are around 42% vs his GII range. Even if he c-bets like half his range(which includes aces) and folds all aces vs a raise we make money, and if he sometimes will stack off with his aces we actually make a lot of money! I actually think he c-bets more 80%+ of his range because his 5$ betsize is very weak and inconsistent, this sizing doenst make any sense.

So i have a few different questions considering this spot. It seems like we can exploit villain's play very effectively by raising a ton in position on this board, but if that is true, we should be raising smaller to around 18, thoughts?

Also, should villain ever c-bet this board - whats his best strategy?

And back to the first topic, what kind of SPR do you need to be thinking of a call on the flop?

Raising is optimistic imo, we are never getting it in good and we don't get much folds because this flop hits your range harder then his and he is cbetting. I prefer a call and play a turn and river where we can put him tough spots since we have a range advantage vs his 3bet range on this flop and we play in position.

I think we should be shoving all wraps and straights, and we can keep this hand in our calling range and try to control the pot see what develops because you wont get it in good.

Yeah well, i have to agree with you and lifted mindset! i just ran some numbers in pokerjuice and it basicly concludes that villain has a completely naked ace on the turn around 25% of the time, and even then it is the question if we can make a naked ace fold(which i doubt at these stakes), so this turn seems like a very easy check/fold indeed.

I felt like we were comitted to bet the turn otherwise we might be checking/giving up to much. Also thought that he would have a lot more naked aces that might fold but this scenario is overall very unlikely. This is hand is btw a fine hand to 3bet, its part of pokerjuice 6% 3b range so should be good for this spot!