Gambling_Poet

I would bet bigger on the flop, most people will call their draws regardless of the betsize, and especially on this board there are so many combodraws.
Id barrel the turn as well, highly unlikely he just flated with a set of Queens, and you can get him off his equity if he has a straightdraw or even top pair.
On the river Id bet something more weird like 50cents. With your betsize your making it pretty easy for him to just fold any worse hand. Id say the very worst hand in your perceived valuebetting range is a 2pair with the Ace, so he should have no problem folding a 2pair with the Q.

I really like the flopbet and the size as well, some players will be tempted to call with just about any flushdraw. I would check the turn though, a KJ combo is very likely and you can c/c depending on the odds and will have a rather easy river decision.

I think its close because those guys are usually calling because they (think they) have a piece, but not rare floats to take it down with a bet on the turn. I think Im bet/folding all the way as well and get value from his Kx hands which should be a huge amount of combos.

Once again some stats/reads on villain would be nice :-).

This seemed like a pretty good spot to barrel for me since he will often fold his draws and if you bet a bit bigger like 6$ it will put him in a spot where he will be playing for his stack and you can still fold to a raise. However, I looked at it in PJ and I would give up on the flop and as played on the turn as well.

Preflop:
Since he raises over 2 limpers I would assume a rather tight range, maybe like 15% RFI and then exclude AA since he doesnt 4bet.

Flop:
On the Flop he will have 40% EQ, I think he raises any set pretty much 100% of the time and calls with JT+,89+,KQ9+,AQ89+,T+:87+ and exluding 66+,KQ98+,AKQJ. He might call with those wraps sometimes or even raise worse, so I just put in a few to balance it. This means that overall he continues 72% of the time, meaning we need to make some +EV turn moves to make up for it. Maybe giving up right here wouldnt be that bad, a Jtx flop just smacks a strong preflop range that doesnt include AA, and all we have is a GSD and backdoorflushdraw.

Turn:

Im assuming that we are rarely getting called and he will either fold or get it in.
He has T+ 32% of the time, if you change his preflop range to RFI25% it only drops to 31%. If you bet 6 in 9,79 you need
x * 9,79 – (1-x) -6 =0
x=38%.

So what else does he have to call on the turn? If he continues with T+,KQJ9+,Q98+ he is at 40%. Now there is the question of how much we make up for it if we bet the turn, villain just calls and we actually win the hand, but it seems pretty damn hard to answer :-).

So I guess I just give up on the flop. We do not have much FEQ here and our implied are pretty low as well, since he wont pay if we hit our A. And a T on the turn is even one of the better turncard, if it is a 5h for example he will not fold his wraps (I assume).

Preflop I might not open UTG, it looks strong but you will get a multiway pot so often and flopping a set of nines or a straightdraw will get you in a lot of trouble.

Id play Flop and Turn the same way, it seems a bit suspicious/weak that he bets so small on the turn as many people would bet bigger with a strong made hand, so raising here might be +EV but I think Id like to have some read on villain for that.
On the river I think your bet is too big, as he will have only bluffcatchers and rarely a really strong hand. If you bet like 22$ he will call much more and then you can also fold a lot easier. As played Im folding btw, I know the odds are great but this is pretty much never a bluff and I dont see people checkjam the river for value with the 3rd nutz or worse that often.

Thanks a lot! I did not know that A8+ will not include 2pairs etc, that is kinda strange since adding 2pair+ will add sets. In this hand I had put in 45+, bottom 2pair, so it didnt matter, but I definitely would have made that mistake in future hands. Overbluffing is not a concern for me at PLO10 :-).

You say you would check back the flop against an aggro opponent because its good for attacking, but I think I would need more of a hand for that. Something like a pair and a non-nut-flushdraw would be nice, since our hand will be disguised. Basically I would check with hands that are decent but can not stand a chekraise, though again this is PLO10 and we dont have to worry too much about getting checkraised and blown off our equity, because a flopcheckraise at this limit is so strong that we dont have that much EQ anyway with a medium hand.

Why would MP bluff if CO has 3$ left in a 28$ pot, he cant win the pot and he should know that we have AA and are not folding given the odds. I really think a low EQ bluff from MP would be burning money.

MP will probably never bluff with CO being committed, so I dont think theres any merit to checking and as mentioned above me, you got something and the SPR is low enough to just GII.

(Not my stakes)
Against a fish I like to bet for value, he only has about half pot left which is the size I would bet anyway. I think theres a decent chance that he would have led out the river with a flush himself and since he raised the flop I put his range into something there, meaning 2pairs and sets.
I think I wouldnt bet the turn despite your EQ, but it's close. For the same reason I would bet the river for value I do not like bluffing against a fish that already told you that he has something.

With the finish line in sight I slipped and had to crawl to the side, beaten and ashamed. I did watch the 20 Videos, but I am missing too many hands and haven't read the 50 pages. I was starting to be too generous with deducting days and telling myself the lame excuse that I dont have a printer anymore since moving to an island last week, but this challenge is not supposed to be like school where you do the bare minimum to somehow pass.
Hence I have bought the first Kilo of Bananas today and am already missing to eat things that are not bananas. Neither did I learn how to make Pad Thai...Time for the next challenge:

Time: 3 weeks

watch 15 Videos and take notes
Analyze 20 hands, either post them in the forums or rip them apart in PJ
Make a HUD
Reply to 20+ hands in the forums
Analyze 2 regs (spending about 15 minutes each on going throgh their database)
Learn 20 words in Thai

The Reward: A cooking class here on the Island
Somehting nice in the 25$ range, like a kayaking tour (not sure what to do here, just arrived)

The Punishment:
I will have to enter the BJJ Tournament in Bangkok in May where I will, no doubt, get my ass kicked.

I think a J is part of so many 3betting hands that arent AA (assuming he doesnt since he didnt 5bet). And at PLO10 I dont assume an unknown to be floating in a 4bet pot, especially not without some kind of draw which are non existent on this board.
The question is though if we can do something else besides cbetting. On the one hand I dont mind getting him off his EQ but its never high EQ and we are never getting called by a worse hand, so maybe give him a chance to bluff? On the other hand that means we have to call it off and with so many J in his range we might be better off bet/folding.

BTW Ive noticed you rarely post stats or tendencies on your villains.

sorry the title misslead me to believe we were the 3bettor and facing a potsize donkbet... obv Im not folding against a range thats likely AA** when we have 2pair.

Very easy fold I'd say, you might be crushed by a set or still an underdog against a monsterdraw, and if he has J8 or JJ you are looking at reverse implieds.

He just flats the flop so TT or 99 are rather unlikely. And there are no flushdraws and no OESD on the turn, so you are bluffing against a range that consists entirely out of made hands, I would not try that. And about the thread title: As a NL convert that happened to me a lot as well... in NL the turn is less likely to be slowplayed than at PLO micros. I am not sure if that is good or not, my default is to always raise the nutz and get the money in or fold out his EQ since 3barrel bluffing doesnt happen that much.

The idea behind the turn donk was simply that I can make EQ fold and bet many rivers as a bluff. I often try to check down hands like that and then regret that I thought my one pair hand would win the showdown.

Thank you for joining me (you were the mentioned "fellow grinder on skype" btw :-) ), I think its a pretty nice punishment.

@ddogkillah: been playing and traveling for years now, only attempted PLO once while I was playing quite high in NL, but the variance got to me quickly and I blew quite some money. This time I decided to play the limits where I am a winning player, not the ones I can technically afford. Therefore I started at micros and spend most of the time learning instead of grinding.

Okay, the more I think about it, the more I tend to check river because of that 2pair-blocking-thing and since he is likely to just 3bet the turn with his sets. I would still raise the flop though :-)

I like your line. Those half pot cbets when we already know he has Aces are so damn weak. If he called you down with nothing but AA just take a note, I would say that most PLO10 players would lay it down (unless hes some big fish of course, in which case bluffing is already bad on the flop)

First of all I would definitely raise the flop, this is still a dynamic board and there are tons of hands a player like this will call and you are deep so why not to build the pot.

As played Im not really a fan of the check river line. Sure he can have busted spades but for him to bluff he has to have spades without any pair (I highly doubt someone like that will turn a weak made hand into a bluff).

I analyzed those spots many times in NL in great detail, and almost always the result was that a check is only better if you go for a checkraise and have some chance of getting that one called with a worse hand. I would assume here as well that his calling range (for a normal river lead) is bigger than his bluffing range (+valuebetting range of worse hands).

As played Im calling though, sure he will show you 58 some of the time, but you are getting the odds, he will be bluffing some small percentage and even valuebet some worse hands.

thanks, and nice read :-)

From my experience what happens quite often when you raise the flop is that they call one street and fold the turn. I would choose that line because otherwise ou are jus thoping for villain to give up or hit a T.
As played I wouldnt raise the turn for the reasons you mentioned. A backdoordraw has higher implieds and you are drawing to the nutstraight/flush, which will give you the chance to make a valuebet that he just cant fold to.

I think I wouldnt just call with those stacksizes. We are never too far behind, were almost flipping against QJ and theres is always the chance that he has a hand that he overvalues because he has a flushdraw, that we are ahead of.

So you gave him a turnfolding range that is any pair that called the flop and is lower then a King?
I dont really like to bet flops like that with such weak EQ, this is a great flop to barrel in Holdem because the turn will bring many scarecards, but I think in PLO he just wont let go that easily and the good barreling spots are rather the ones where you can put him on a draw and get him to call and fold later on.
I would just check back and try to realize my EQ.

I think I would play the hand the same, I dont see how we have too much FEQ vs 2 including a fish. Maybe if they were both standard TAGs you could bet because you still have the option of barreling turns and rivers, but if BTN calls I wouldnt attempt that.