Finnisher

16:00 on table 2 with KQs. Do you have much interest in what villain's hand is here? He looks kinda tight so wouldn't expect him to be 3betting many Tx or sets but that doesn't mean that he's bluffing on turn or will fold overpairs to a jam, or xf river. Would you bluff river? Missed fd's are your only natural bluffs on the river afaict?

e: Obv you care about what he has but I mean more like trying to "put him on a hand/range" type thing?

29:35 77 vs a recreational. Would you like leading river here (maybe 2/3ish pot)? He might raise a flush anyway if you don't bomb it and he's most likely not folding Ax vs a smallish bet (and folding vs xrai anyway). Obv this depends a lot on what he does with Ax on river and if he bluffs river. idk bout z200 but at smaller stakes it's usually better to assume ppl are passive than overaggro unless proven otherwise so this would favor leading the river (probably massively exploitable but that doesn't have to matter much?)

I did the ICM for the first hand AJo if villain jams river. I used a pretty standard 56/31/13 payout structure. I get that you'd need about 52.2% equity to call river instead of the 31.5% cEV odds, without fgs and such.

You've talked about ICM distributing money to ppl not in the hand and with yesterday's hot 55 numbers with 7.5k for the winner, if you call a river jam the short stack gains $600 if you win and $1k if you lose so he'd be pretty happy either way.

I think this is a pretty nice format, get to see some of the boring stuff in fast forward and then you can analyze interesting spots with ICMizer. Personally I wouldn't mind if you ran more hands with it. Thanks!

The first excel calculation for ICM-ev with the Q5o is wrong. You've missed some chips in some of the scenarios. I highly recommend using checks for that type of stuff, and in general too, by doing sums for total chips in every scenario. It's pretty simple and can save a ton of effort searching for mistakes :)

The correct numbers afaik are 1676.21 when we fold to the minraise and 1687.01 with us winning 35.63% of the time after calling (and it's checked down with R=100%). However the 1687.01 is incorrect due to ICM being a risk averse model and thus you can't actually do the ICM of expected chips. Instead you have to do the a weighted average of ICMs in the different scenarios. So instead of doing ICM(expected chips) you have to do (win% * winICM + lose% * loseICM).

In such a small pot it doesn't make much of a difference, I get 1686.65 instead of the 1687.01. It does however make a big difference with all-ins, for example in this one if it were all-in somehow with hero having 35.63% equity you'd get 1546.11 with the first method and 1438.82 with the correct method, so quite a big difference due to the risk aversion.

Small stuff that doesn't come up much but just thought I'd mention them :)

Thanks for this and all other vids, I've really enjoyed them and learned a bunch

Table 2 21:00 AJs. You said you're betting polarized on the turn after a 1/3 on the 655 flop. Then you said you're betting the K turn with 99+. Did you mean in general you're betting turn polarized but not on K, or do you view 99+ on K polarized (wording might appear a bit attacky but def not meant that way)? Curious since I'm pretty lost with pairs

Table 2 14:00 with the QJ on river. You said you would raise a decent chunk of your trips and sets on flop/turn. Since it's a dry board do you expect villain to not bluff turn+river that much so you kinda have to get the value yourself? And that in turn allows him to overbet river with KQ+? Isn't this spot pretty nuts/air vs bluffcatcher spot range vs range with bb being bluffcatcher?

16:30 table 2. Folding 54s on btn vs a fish co minraise looks pretty tight? It is pretty bad at making good pairs and a decent chunk of the playability relies on bluffing/semibluffing which probably isn't a great plan vs a looser fish but I would've thought it's still playable

21:00 table1 AA. Would you cbet AcAx on this flop? ie is this flop wet enough for you to be worried about having some strong overpairs in your flop checking range?

21:00 table3 AKo. Do you think it would ~ever be reasonable to 4b AKo here and fold to a 5bet? It's a pretty good bluff candidate with the blockers but is it too strong to bluff because if villain is so strong that you can't flat it then villain probably isn't folding much to the 4bet either so it would be call>fold>4bet usually? I'm aware that my desire to 4bet rather than flat is probably a symptom of not wanting to play oop postflop :P

27:50 table3 Q8. You xr turn vs a delayed cbet and said that his range is very one pair heavy. Would you in his spot as pfr be worried about ppl taking the line you took or would you bet/fold turn with pretty much any Ax as default standard reg?

7:00 on table 1 with JJ, how would you approach this flop spot (future streets included) with AK on QJx vs a weaker player? You won't make many better hands fold on the flop and those that do fold are somewhat likely to not bet flop and fold to a delayed cbet too. If you bet and get called there are still some weakish hands in his range that aren't doing too well vs your range but it doesn't prevent him from calling down with those.

Really good vid again, and good series. Thank you. I really liked that you made some short comments about how villains played their hand too. And you talked about plans for future streets for hands and at least in the AdT hand vs a triple barrel bvb how you didn't like raising at all. "What if"'s are very useful imo.

In general you seem to advocate not thinking about hero's range that much and being much more concerned about villain's range. So not making many "top of the range"-calls cos ppl aren't bluffing much in general. It def works and is much less error prone than trying to gto on the fly. Seems so obvious and easy until adding ego to the mix :)

9:10 table 1 AQo, good explanation there. Was wondering if you would play AA-QQ, AJ as a triple barrel and a big river bet as well, on a safer river? I'd feel the mubs coming on river with overpairs but as you explained you wouldn't expect villain to have many better hands that didn't raise flop or turn so a big river bet would still be fine vs a mostly capped range

7:00 table 2 K8cc, would you cbet this if 5s was 5c? Would you barrel turn (+river) if you did cbet flop and got a 7o on turn? It would hit villain a bit too so I guess betting turn without river wouldn't make too much sense vs his range, otoh if we do triple all our turned gutters that miss river we probably have ton of bluffs on river.

Arriving at river with too many bluff candidates is an issue for me and I find it's usually caused by autopilot cbetting all sorts of random trash on flop and maybe catching some equity on turn.

Thank you, good vid and interesting somewhat frequent spots that can be tough in the heat of the moment for me at least.

Your English is perfectly fine, the accent is just a bonus. Looking forward to more stuff from you, some full ring would be cool even tho it is dying :)

You're obv not good 100%, or need to be, when calling turn. You have more sets than he does so river board pair is much better for your range? Assuming your turn call range is mostly {flushes, sets} (folding top 2 on turn?) how would you construct your betting range on a board pair river vs a check? You'd need better hands to fold around 40% with these stacks for bluffing to be better than checking, altho that assumes he's never checking a boat on river, which could def be a bad assumption.

OTOH, idk how important it is to be balanced on 4flush turn, board pair river runouts so maybe it's fine to not have any bluffs in that spot?

27min J5dd on table 1: If villain checked the board pairing river would you be bluffing with this or some lower flushes (probably not vs french recreationals but maybe vs some regs?)

Not sure how to phrase this but in general would you call small flushes on turn with the idea of bluffing pairing rivers on 4 flush turns or is that a bit ambitious and more likely "clear" call turn/check river or turn folds vs ppl who are drunk on redwine on a friday or who ~never bluff? Maybe you can decipher that question :D

28:30 54s on table 3. I feel the urge to check with the turned "sd-value" quite often in spots like these, which is probably not very good. Is there any point in betting this on turn and then not bluffing rivers or is the whole point semibluffing good equity to follow thru on river expecting not to have any sd-value? Would checking turn make sense if we were ip? Obv player and player pool dependent. I just noticed it's a spot where i kneejerk check a lot because pair, couldn't come up with a good question tho :D

Very good video, thanks!

Around 26min you talk about 3betting to ~7.5x in sb vs a 3.5x utg with 5.5-6% range. That seems pretty specific which leads me to believe you weren't just pulling numbers out of thin air. Did you see some good reg using that strategy? Not necessarily related to this spot alone but in general, how do you go about finding/solving these kinds of weirder strategies that most, especially uNL regs wouldn't even think about? Are you just running random crev scripts overnight hoping to find something when you wake up? :D

Good stuff sir, thank you!

Near the end you said btn flat with 98s vs utg open is bad, it's a 3b or fold. Would you call or squeeze or fold multiway if mp or co flatted before? There was also a spot where mp opened and hero had 75s on btn, what if co flatted there? Or with 65s-98s vs a mp open, with of without a co flat? Again this seems like it was consensus, maybe way back in the day, that all these sc's on btn are clear calls. Ppl probably stacked off way lighter postflop then but how do you view these hands today? ie. not good enough to flat in general vs decent players and no fishies in the blinds and should be 3b/fold hands?

Good commentary altho there wasn't a ton of action in the vid, thank you

28min bottom left hero isos 22 vs sb limp. Assuming this flop cbet is mostly one and one, what sizing would you prefer? Thinking small bet, 1/3 or so, accomplishes pretty much the same as hero's 2/3ish

18:05 on bottom left, utg had KK without a fd on the flop. How do you think villain should play his hand pre/flop/turn(/river)? edit: oops didnt go far enough to see if you'd comment on it, you said fold turn :D Just to have a question here then, you like call turn (fold river?) if he had KdK?

Also in general, do you defend/call all pocket pairs in bb hu vs any position open? What about in sb with 55ish, and let's say hero in sb has a 3bet range and also a pretty transparent sb flatting range? I think consensus seems to have moved back to flatting all the small pairs especially in bb?

Around minute 40 on table 3 hero opens 33 in hijack, gets called by tablet operating random stack in sb. Hero goes bet-bet-check on A97hhd 5d Kd. (hand ends at 43:40)

How would you view this spot on flop? Does betting once make sense or should we go for 2 or 3 if we do bet? Or maybe bet like 35% pot on flop and give up? Or start by checking flop planning to mostly hope for showdown or maybe stab some runouts?

Let's say he 4bets 15% of the time, folds f%, calls 1-f%, our EV when
called is x. EV = 0.15 * (-19) + (1-f) * x + f * 9 For EV = 0 0 =
-2.85 + (1-f) * x + 9f x = (2.85-9f)/(1-f)

I think you made a mistake here, he calls 1-.15-f% amirite? so you'd end up with x=(2.85-9f)/(0.85-f)

60% folds means you can lose $10.2 when called or win 21% of the pot.
50% folds means you can lose $4.7 when called or win 34% of the pot.

Rake at lower stakes would increase the win%'s required by 1-1.5 %-p

Winning 30% is enough with 54% fold vs 3b%.

So maybe 50% folds is actually enough or thereabouts?

Around 24min you talk about folding/3betting 98s sb vs hj open and say you wouldn't 3bet unless hj folded too much to 3bets. Maybe unanswerable but in an exploit vacuum what would you say is folding too much/enough for you to 3b 98s for around pot size? Without postflop you'd need around 67% folds, add BB defending some %, postflop equity etc, what sort of fold% would you be looking for?

37:00 75cc on table 1: You said villain is capped on KJ2 so you'd c-bet with a high frequency. Would you be mostly looking to barrel off with a big part of those flop c-bets or do you think one-and-done also works on a board like this? ie. is it generally a 1-or-3 spot or maybe 0-or-3 spot?

Excellent video again, thank you!

19:30 QJdd on table 3: Is calling flop even close iyo with a nutshot and bdfd? I was pretty surprised to see you fold it. Would you call if either villain was a fish?

32:50 table 3, AKo: You suggest c-betting the flop to make him fold smaller pairs (and we have good equity). How do you feel about delayed c-betting instead? Do you expect hands like 55 to lead turn to deny us that opportunity (in which case I think we can call turn)? Or are you mostly planning to barrel off 3 anyway even without a heart and therefore need to start by betting flop?

I'm just somewhat confused in spots like this because most of the hands that fold to one bet on flop would give us an opportunity to delayed c-bet and fold to it and hands that don't fold flop are somewhat strong on runouts where we don't hit so betting one or two vs those doesn't accomplish a whole lot. And, is it mubsy to not be all that excited about going b-b-b with ~KK here co vs hj?