Femoden

Why check flop? Or are we planning to checkfold? Seems too weak to me.
Flop is so ragy we can easily have the best hand or at least good equity. Checkcall caps our range so bad that I don't think I will show a lot profit by checkcalling compared to c-betting.

Don't remember the exact result, but aces were good here.

Have you seen villains cards at showdown in the past? If not this is kinda tough spot. Any extra info about villains cr-tendencies (for example is he capable to shove like weak two pairs) would help a lot to make accurate analysis.

As villain just calls from BB im discounting some KQJx hands away; aggro most of the time will 3-bet those. Maybe rainbow KQJx but that's very narrow part of his range.

Flop is very drawheavy and villain just calls which I find very amusing. Very risky spot to be slowplaying set. I would still say villain is kinda polarized. Either has the set or just random hand without big straightdraw. In other words I think villain has very strong hands and not so strong hands in his range. So I'm not expecting villain to have mediocre hands very often.

Turn is total blank and now villain checkshoves. The line he is taking is classic for a set. Against tighter player we are forced to fold this but because of aggro-notes I would be tilting my desicion to shoving. Because even if villain flips over a set we still have 14 outs against that so in the long run we are losing just little money. And I wouldnt be surprised if villain shows up with somekind of pair + sd or weak fd. Aggressive opponent might attack that board with various kind of weak drawing hands because that texture should not hit our MP openingrange very hard. And obv we dominate all his possible draws.

Long story short: Going broke eventhought not so happy about it

wp