FLASP

I think these kinda spots are very feel dependent which only you can know because you have the best read on him over those sample of hands.

With said I fold the river. I don't see him having many floats without equity or pure bluff on the river. I don't think many players bet the turn with 99's, Aq, 77's, KQ for instance. His range is very polarized to airball to nutty hands, where I think he have nutty hands very large amount of the time.

His W$sd is as it should be. One interesting thing to notice is his wtsd35 which is way to high.. And when you combine these two stats it means that he is the type of player who is a calling station and obviously loses some percentages of the times which should make his W$sd less than 45. Since it's not less than 45, it leads me to believe he doesn't bet showdown valueish hands.

Why would you squeeze a fish wide OOP, that is just asking for trouble. The fish will make bad decision whether you have dynamic with him or not.

Reasons not to 3bet: I agree that it's better heads up than mwp but we will miss the flop 2/3. Inflating the pot will increase variance and I think the drawbacks of flatting ATs mwp is less than the drawbacks of playing OOP vs a fish.

Reason to 3bet: It's fine to open up our value range but again position is the key. I would not worry about getting squeezed by the BB it's not like we are holding pocket TTs etc.

Again gl, this is just my opinion.

As played, I really like it. Every street is very standard and well played.

Depending on what kind of fish he is, I would consider flatting most of the times and donking the flop.

If he is bad aggressive, I would defiantly just flat, if he is passive stationary 3-betting is ok but not great OOP. It's better to isolate any fish IP and push our equity preflop. OOP I would just play small ball poker vs a fish.

-Hi, one obvious thing to note is that the deeper you get the better and more credible 5-bet "bluffing" with AQs becomes even though it's not recommended. 100 bb stacks, you don't have any fold equity CO vs Button against hands like jacks+, AK, so it's not recommend either to bluff here.

-I believe in the specific hand you shove for value? Because it is suited it obviously makes it harder to fold even though it should not.

-Without dynamics I would consider just calling preflop and not 3-betting.

-If he had 70 usd stack behind him, I do not think flatting his 4-bet with reads and some plan would be terrible.

Hello. It is very played dependent meaning vs some players you want to c-bet vs other you can just go and take a free showdown.

Scenario 1: Let's assume villain in the SB is a decent reg and he calls with a small pairs, medium pairs or AQ. You always want to c-bet here, he is out of position, and you have initiative. He will have a very hard time calling you down lightly and he cannot really accomplish much by check-raise bluff.

Scenario 2: Villian is a fish. Checking down is perfectly fine(river is a obvious valuebet in the specific hand you posted) since our hand have showdown value and if he calls with hands out of position with small pairs, KQ, KJ and floats us out of position, it will be a matter of time before we take his money.

In general C-betting specially in position is a winning strategy. In position I would C-bet 97% of the times probably vs regs or half bad/decent players. Vs a major fish there is no shame in checking down when we miss.

 

I would just fold turn, I do not think he bet 88-TT on the flop very often and continues to bet for value on the turn. Congratulation to him if he bluffed in a 4-way pot.

I prefer to check-call on the flop I do not think any worse gives us value if we raise. Our flop call have to make him worried if he have 88-tt, and he would probably check back the turn.

Anyways I know you did not ask for this but preflop I would 4-bet or jam all in, BB is extremely loose , CO VPIP and PFR is pretty far from one another so he is pretty callish with suited connectors, suited aces etc. You really want to isolate with big pairs since they play much better heads up.

You have to think what is the best play in the long run. That fold is huge losing and missed EV play in the long run. Be "brave"(even though I do not think there is anything to be brave about in that hand lol), stop seeing demons and call. Gl in the future :)

???? Not a good fold mate. You can never fold there. Yes he can do it with any big pair, fd, A high. Like I do not understand what hands you are waiting for to get your stack in with.

Anyways next time please do not fold :)

Turn is a relative brick, you block the straight and we assume he 4-bets AK, so I don't see what he is repping here. Agree with Whipman that turn is a call. He seems pretty aggro by his 25/22 stats also.

Imagine you were the BB, and the ace came, wouldn't you bet if you had nothing and check weak Ax hands?

Why call the river: The board is super dry and uncoordinated meaning A LOT of hands miss that will continue to bluff. His value range is very narrow. I would believe that he would also check some strong hands with his low c-bet %, does not necessarily mean he only continues with good hands.

Another interesting thing to notice is his AF is pretty low. His VPIP and PFR are pretty wide from each other and 3-bet is relatively low, meaning I do not think he is the type of player that would do this as a bluff or value-bet worse.

I would eliminate AA, KK, JJ from the equation. Basically not smart to turn those hands into "bluffs".

Your big bet on the river also leads me to believe his range is nutty almost always.  

Flop: As played, flop call is very standard, you have backdoor hearts, two overs, deep and in position.

Turn: Turn is 100% call vs 11-13% 3-bet and 80% turn bet range(assuming you mean c-bet in 3-bet pots). The ace is the best barrel card for his range. I do not think he would bet AT or any other weakish Ax on the turn semi-deep. His range is pretty polarized to top 2% or less of his 3-bet range to complete air-ball. He is basically representing aces up, AK which possible but not probable.

River: I would call the river also and expect to win most of the times

In general this kind of line is cheesing and should work very little amount of times. I mean congrats that it worked out but you would probably get the same action by betting 3/4 - 3.5/4 pot. He will fold 66-99 to the line you took where if you bet normally you will get another street of value.

3) I thought all nits did was folding :).

Never implied I use these "reads" in playing poker. This was meant assuming you had no read, no hud, and HAD to make reads based on country. Should probably clarify that before. Thought writing "this is not always true" would be enough which very clearly implies that it is not true for ALL as you think.
When someone from Italy sits down with 78bb, I assume he is a donk since Italy is not developed as poker nation as other countries. There is nothing racial or wrong with that.
Anyways the point and topic of this thread have nothing to do with what one should base their reads on, saving the babies, or anything. Please read everything before you make a comment.
 

My first impression based on experience and how developed the country is in poker(note- is not true always):

Germany and Netherlands: Usually very aggressive and taggish. Your common good 2+2 regular

Switzerland: Weaker players unless proven otherwise

Italy, Israel, France: Passive calling station

Finland: Skeptical and aggressive with a lot of gamble

Danish: Usually weak players

Russians: Hyper aggressive who do not like to be pushed around

Romania and Poland: Big nits

America: Logical and sane with little gamble

Canada: Bad aggressive with a lot of gamble

Norway: Weak players

United Kingdom: Usually pretty good

Brazil, Argentina, Portugal: Solid players who always seem to have 70-80% steal

Edited to not offend anyone.

I think it's a mistake to call his 3-bet preflop OOP by default. You only want to set mine if their range is extremely strong. You want to stack them when you hit and if they have wide range you will not be able to do that. Meaning you will lose more money than win. Villian can c-bet himself to retirement.

In general your calling range preflop is pretty obvious and you just want to give up on dry flops like J62 for instance, even though I do like bluff raising dry K high and A high flops time to time.

If their 3-bet range is wide, you can 4-bet as a bluff. It is a poor 3-bet strategy in general to call medium strong hands, fold weak hands and 4-bet strong hands only.

Played perfectly. We can never fold or just call his flop c-raise with the amount of money in the middle. His AF is also pretty high, and vs a villian like this there is no other play.

Hi, 39 hands does not say much about villian, other than he isn't callish preflop with those stats. I think he 3-bets hands like KTs, KQs and maybe 9ts which are hands that beat you. He defiantly have more Ax combos than FD so I like the line you took. If he raises river, I also think it's a fold. No reason to go into leveling wars vs a basicly unknown villian.

 

Is this a 3-handed game? Even so I don't think those stats makes him a huge nit. I would like to re-raise the flop and get it in. With the limited information you provided, I think turn is a fold. The river decision would depend on his W$SD. Even so, river is a bluff-catcher so I think it's a fold.

One thing to keep in mind: You click-raise preflop vs someone who defends with j3s. The reason click-raising buttons is so cool is because we invest 2$ to win 1.5$, meaning we can click any two and show profit vs some type of villians.

With that said when villain defending hands like j3s, I would like to raise 2.5x or 3x to push our equity when we have a hand and increase fold equity from junk even if we are in position. I will make breaking ranges down much easier also

River is no brainer raise as played imo, specially against donks that have will show all sort of weird hands... You should also bet turn.

In general should fold preflop when you say that everyone on the table are fishes because these fishes will have position on you.

One mistake people make when there are donks at the table, is playing donked themselves. Just stick with a tight-aggro gameplan and you will get your piece of the pie.