EmptyPromises

FLOP ASSUMPTIONS:
Opponent: 
I think your assumptions are quite extreme here, for instance check raising all sets seems quite off to me. Especially since imfromsweden will check back pair + gutshot often, just like he did with hi actual hand.

I understand your hesitation here, but if the opponent bets all of our strong hands TPTK+, then Hero will be able to bet thinly on the flop, so the opponent has an incentive to check-raise thin. So I have the opponent betting strong top pairs and better, except for sets which I was check raising.

This is again quite extreme. And it will be rare that it is optimal to bet all AJ combos in a spot like this. Not onlt since it will complete cap our checking range, but also since we should expect most better hands to call or raise.

It's not a problem is we cap our checking back range because the Villain will only have AJ on the turn with ~5% of his range (only his AJ). So I don't think it's a large enough concern. And we bet AJ as a bluff, so I don't understand your critique that better hands call or raise -- but some also fold. And I'm not worried about a raise, since AJ will be a bet-call on the flop

So you have imfromsweden calling many weak hands like AT, Q8 etc? That makes this spot favorable for overbetting.

We also have alot of straights and 2pair on this turn which keeps the Villain from being able to overbet. 

You didn't specify a betting or checking range for our opponent. I assume that he checks his entire range, which is quite reasonable since we have more straights and our opponent has more tp+ that he needs to protect. Also checking all his AJ works out well for his range.

So if the Villain doesn't have a betting range, then the Hero will never have an incentive to bet at all, since the Villain can check-raise with ~20% of his hands. This doesn't make it as easy to solve unfortunately. But it does prove that given the ranges I assigned that the Hero will never be shoving here.

Fwiw, I've done a very similar analysis, but I gave Imfromsweden a 4-bet range preflop, and he defending a total of 45% of hands (instead of 40%). But it's still pretty close. 

Beyond on that, I took the time to put together what I would think is some decent ranges for flop and turn from a GTO standpoint... I spent a fair bit of time doing this and I've had a lot of practice in the past, so I'm guessing that it's going to be better than the ranges that you guys are choosing. You can goto the end of the post where I give some of the major decisions I made on earlier streets. 

RIVER RANGES BEFORE ANY ACTIONS:

FLOP ASSUMPTIONS:

Opponent: 

- His frequency for checking AJ & AT is only proportion to balancing his check-raising range... in other words, contrary to what Imfromsweden said, AJ would not be used as a check-call. The gut shot is too strong to play as a check-call on the flop unless it's with the intention of ALWAYS check-raising the turn when bet into, in which case our opponent would have slightly less AJ in his checking range. AJ is one of our better nonmade hands, and it'll turn into the nuts quite a bit, so it should not be played for high card showdown value. This means that the Villain will have ~9.6 AJ in his flop checking range -- which actually seems very similar to what GTO thought. 

- Opponent will be checking all his Qx type hands. I think this is a pretty fair assumption, I could see some arguments for betting flop and turn, and then checking river with AQ. Especially if we wanted to bet the flop small, and then the turn bigger with the intention of folding out some of the gut shot hands our opponent could have when the turn blanks. I didn't decide to do that, and it doesn't effect things much, but I'm just putting it out there. 

- Opponent will be check-raising all his sets. I think this makes sense, since the opponent will want to have a check-raising range here and he can't cap his checking range too much (even though it is a 3-bet bot). Even though he'll be check raising into 16 combos of JT, Imfromswedends next best hands are going to be 99, KQ, so he's doing well against those type hands. 

IMFROMSWEDEN:

- When checked to, Imfromsweden will bet ALL his AJ hands. I just can't really come up with a good reason why we'd need to check-back any AJ. The only reason that you'd want to check-back AJ is if we're going to have to bet-fold them to the check-raises. But this is not the case, they're going to be part of our bet-calling range. And they also don't have enough showdown equity to win with Ace high. This means that Hero has 0 combos of AJ on the river. 

- If people totally disagree with me about the AJ above, I did have Imfromsweden checking back ALL his QJ hands. This is probably a stretch. I could see a very sensible argument for betting flop and betting turn and checking back river with our QJ hands. However, if we do start betting a lot of our QJ hands, then our flop betting range is going to be wider than our flop calling range, and the Opponent is going to have a large incentive to not have a betting range on this flop and just check-raise a ton. (fwiw, this flop hits Imfromswedens range pretty hard and there's an interesting side discussion about how often the Villain should be betting the flop anyways... but that's for a different thread). 

- Imfromsweden will bet ~66% (pulled that out of the air) of his JT straights on the flop. Hero won't bet all his JT on the flop, otherwise is turn is going to be capped and Villian will start over-betting the turn large, until it's going to be higher EV for Hero to check back the nuts. I believe this would go back and forth until the EV of betting and checking JT will be the same, and GTO action will be a mixed strategy. 

- For both players, I'm having both of them bet ALL there back door flushdraws which aren't pairs. I think this makese sense because these will be the best bluffs which will have a chance to approve. I think they're probably better ideas than trying to make a small pocket pair a bluff. But I could see an argument for turning weak 9x into bluffs which I didn't do. My only point for really pointing this out is that I don't think either player will have many flushdraws on the turn because they both checked the flop. 

TURN ASSUMPTIONS:

GENERALLY:

In the hand, the Opponent ends up betting the turn. The problem with this scenario is that the Hero's range is quite a bit stronger than the opponents on the turn, and while he can't have any AJ in his range, Hero's range is nothing like bluff catchers. I don't think there's a lot of incentive for the Villain to bet the turn to be frankly honest, but I'm going to go ahead and give him a betting range so there's a range for the river. This would usually mean just making it super polarized like straights and better, but then this makes for a super simple river situation and not a very interesting one. So with the goal of having an interesting river discussion I'm going to give the opponent a turn betting range which isn't super polarized. 

Opponent: 

- Similar to the flop for Imfromswedend, the opponent will both bet and check his AJ and Jx hands on the turn. The reason is the same, he'll have an incentive to not overly cap his checking range on the turn, since there's so much stack depth left with only two streets to go. 

- Opponent will bet TopPair or better on the turn. Fwiw, more than 50% of Imfromswedens calling range on the turn will be weaker than TopPair, if that makes anyone feel better about the Opponent betting top pair on the turn. 

IMFROMSWEDEN:

- I didn't give him a raising range. This could be open for discussion. The Hero doesn't have any AJ in his range, so that's not great. But I could see an argument for both raising and calling some % of Jx. In other words, from a GTO stanpoint, Hero probably would raise some Jx and call with some Jx. But I'm not giving him a raising range on the turn. 

- The rest of his range is pretty normal.