Durrden

min 7:10; KK:
You said how him covering the BTN and the BB reduces his aggression, therefore you'd prefer 3betting KK preflop. Can you elaborate on that ?
I was under the impression that him covering 2 players, especially the BTN being so short, might make him open slightly wider, therefore having more r/f against our 3bet.
Personally, I also would have pure flatted KK with this stack distribution, and be more likely to 3bet if stacks in the blinds were deeper. Is my reasoning flawed here?

Edit: Oh, I see.. the other stacks covering the opener makes it more likely for them to squeeze preflop, allowing for more aggression after we flat.

Did you 4b the t8s because barak just coolered the hell out of someone and doubled at the other table?

I love you so much!

Looks like "evernote"

change it from 1080p to 720p (quality), worked for me.

Video is not loading for me, anybody else having this problem?
Other videos are working fine tho.

At the 51min mark, where you discuss barrelling 22 on 53A86 and want to see your bluff:value ratio in PPT, I think there is a mistake w/ the combos.
It should be 32 combos of AA,88,55,33,A8s,A5s,A3s,A8o,A5o, instead of 30 combos as shown in PPT.

I think it´s because the suited combos of A3 are missing, which happens if you write them down as "A3s", which in PPT means Ax3s (0 combos of that, since 3s is on the board).
So all combos of A8s,A5s,A3s should be written out as Ax8x,Ax5x,Ax3x in PPT.
Or am I missing anything?!

I dont think vea has (or should have) many KJ,J9 cbets OTF at this depth.
He´s not deep enough to barrel, but can comfortably call any turn, after checking back flop, and realize his equity, rather than having to bet flop, check turn, bet river (and rep a LOT of missed draws); or even worse: bet flop & having to bet/fold turn etc.
The same holds true for AJ/AK imo, esp w/ a BDFD. I think a good player is gunna check those back at a high frequency, given SPR and nature of the board (ppl can´t just start blindly bet into IP for 2 streets w/ complete air, when IP can have lots of JJ,JT,KT,AT etc checkbacks).

OTT..given he should be checking back the flop w/ a lot of potential draws he could be barrelling now, I think his turn betting range is really strong.
However, given some ppl still cbet AJ,AK OTF and might go for it again OTT, trying to get us off Tx, I still meeh-call turn but def fold on any river.
It kinda sucks to let a 7-10 outer realize it´s equity, but I think x/calling is far better than x/shipping, as we´re just crushed by his bet/calling range + I dont expect to get bluffed much on brick rivers, when our range is very Qx heavy.

Vs someone really good tho, whose ranges u respect (give him credit for checking back AJ/AK a lot OTF), it might just be a fold on turn... thoughts?

Hey Lucas, 

really great video! I love seeing these postflop analysis, keep up the good work! :)

I have one important note on the AhJc hand from ~ min 26, though.

In PPT, if u want to know all of your (for example) AQ combos with ONE heart, u have to write it "AhQx", instead of just "AhQ".
When u´ve typed "AhQ" into PPT, it gave u 4 hand combinations, when there actually can only be 3 combos of AQ with ONE heart. "AhQ" includes AhQh; "AhQx" only counts all offsuit AQ with the Ah.

So in that hand, your one-heart AX river bluff combos are only 12 instead of 15 combos, so u could be making this bluff almost 40% instead of 33% of the time.

Hey Nick,
great video as always! Congrats on ur promotion as well!

I got a question regarding the JTcc hand from min 22:20:

If this was a HU pot vs UTG player, I love leading flop big and think its the most +ev play vs his range, which otherwise will often check back TP/OP on this flop vs our defending range, but will still sigh-calldown safe runouts, as our perceived and actual range will contain "enough" semibluffs (KTs,KJs,76s,etc.) and potentially 87s´s etc. turned into a bluff.

When this pot is 3 way though and we´re facing 2 pretty strong ranges, which def can smash this flop hard, our donklead looks just super strong (2 pair +), but I still think leading is the best way to get the most value, as again, a lot of worse (but strong) hands will often check back and only go for max. 2 streets of value.
Maybe there is an argument for checking and hope CO will put us on a weak 8x/9x/Qx and barrells off with his KT/KJ hands? Although, combination-wise, he´s more likely to have TP here (AQ,KQ) than a gutter to potentially barrell off, as I´d expect him to call any combo of AQ and more offsuit combos of KQ, as compared to KT/KJ, which very likely will only be suited combos to flat an UTG open preA (and we block 2 of these already).

Now,I finally get to my actual question: 
Given the fact that we are facing 2 strong ranges here, would u still wanna be leading hands like KTs, KJs, 76s in this spot, mostly for balancing-reasons vs regs and our barrelling potential (BDFD is the nuts!), even though our FE drastically decreases 3 way?

Actually..I´m still not done with the hand lol

Zack might not be better off calling AJ/AQ than turning it into a bluff..

Assuming Gambler´s value range to bet 3 streets is: TT, 44, KT, KJ, KQ, AK. That´s 36 combos.
And assuming his semi-bluffing range is : AJ, AQ, QJ, Q9ss, J9ss. That´s 50 combos 

If Zack thinks Gambler is bet/folding everything but a FH vs Zack´s (in my eyes) really strong line, Gambler would only be bet/calling with 6/86 combos (folding 86% of the time) then calling with any pair and turning AJ/AQ into a bluff (needs to work 68%) would be a possible line to take for Zack to take to fold out splits and dont lose AJ<AQ, so it would make AK more of a call in Gambler´s spot?!

Anyone feel free to correct me if I messed up the numbers, it´s almost 3am lol

Hey Fedor,
great video series, really love your thought process & am looking forward to future videos!

First off, I have a little note on what u said about Gambler´s turn sizing:
He bets 1,225 into 2,716 on Ts4cKh Ks and u said u´d wanna bet 1,500-1,600, but I like Gambler´s sizing and wouldnt go any bigger than 1/2 pot to be consistent with my range here.

If we had QQ/AA in that spot, we´d still wanna be vbetting it with a decent frequency, to not get exploited by only betting trips+ or be semi-bluffing.

The turn bringing a 2nd K makes it less likely for him to have a K and might make him more likely to think his underpair/2nd pair is good, but we´re still not thrilled about "blowing" the pot with QQ/AA here.
And if the 2nd K does make him less likely to fold an underpair/2nd pair, we´re also allowing ourselves to bet the same sizing (~ 1/2 pot) with AJ,AQ,QJ,Q9ss,J9ss,Axss, which will also give us a cheaper stab at the river, if we´re intending on 3 barrelling when we miss.

I hope this makes sense and is a somewhat relevant factor when choosing our turn sizing?!

About the river spot.. I think it´s a fold. 

Zack just reps way too much showdown value to check/ship the river as a bluff imo.
I dont think Zack would even get to the river with QJ/J9/Q9 by just check/calling turn,when he doesnt get odds to call and he likely has reversed implied odds vs a strong/non-capped range.
If he wanted to continue with QJ/J9/Q9 on this turn, I´d expect him to lead turn big himself and fire again on river.
Check/calling flop with intention of check/shoving river feels like a disaster to me, as Gambler could just check back river with a bunch of hands that still beat him.

So,whats left in Zack´s range to get to the river is TT, 44, K4dd, Tx, Kx, AJ, AQ imo and I think even AJ/AQ do a way better job bluffcatching river than turning it into a bluff vs a non-capped range.

When he check/ships river, I think he has a FH the vast majority of the time and MAYBE and small chance of KQ/KJ (?!), but I doubt it tbh..