Dubious

Shouldn't we also include at least some % of club FDs in villains range? Also shouldn't we include at least some amount of just random button clicking? I think I'm coming around to c/r OTF at least sometimes. But I don't think we can fold OTT.

I think flop raise is ok but I would go bigger for sure. There is plenty to get value from.

When the turn completes the flush it's a very clear check for me. yeah it sucks to give a random one spade hand a free river, but it doesn't suck enough to bet.

As played I'd call the river bet. I see enough people donk lead with terrible block bets or just pure desperation bluffs that calling has to be fine. However, raising is absolutely lighting money on fire.

raise flop 100% of the time. River - I think you're ahead like 18% of the time against a very strangely played weaker two pair and random spazy bluffs. 18% isn't enough to call.

A or Q or clubs I might be willing to find a tight fold against a large bet. Otherwise, with no information I think you gotta sigh call.

Yes, it's possible he way overbluffs this spot since he would likely check AA, KK at some point. It's also very possible that he's the type of player that will never bluff and will just shrug his shoulders and bet/bet/shove with AA, KK.

I think your range has enough nutted hands that you don't need to call JJ with a heart. (Though I guess that depends on your 3bet/call range). And I wouldn't trust the POSSIBILITY that he's overbluffing enough to expand my range this far. I mean if you think about what weaker hands can you even have here....?

I agree with Resolve that check/raise flop is better. You're gunna put a lot of Ax in a bunch of shitty situations on a lot of runouts and also get a bet out of some air occasionally.

I think your river line is likely a little face-up honestly. You're saying 'I think you'll pay my two pair hands with an Ax and let me get away for cheap when you have a flush because you'll never bluff shove'. If that statement is true then the block bet is great if it isn't then the block bet is tragic.

(And for the record I think it probably is true at 5nlz more often than not.)

I think I'd 3bet pre.

flop check/call is good. Against such a large cbet I wouldnt be check/raising as a bluff very often and I think and I'd choose something more like As6s and the like before this hand.

Turn is a call. You only need about 30% equity and given he can still have tons of worse draws you'll have that easily.

If you don't like being OOP against an UTG open range with a marginal holding and without initiative consider 3betting pre. A lot of people play pure 3bet or fold strategy vs a single raiser in the SB and I think it makes the most sense at small stakes because 1 - the rake is very high and taking it down pre avoids paying rake and 2 - people are particularly bad at reacting to 3bets correctly at small stakes.

But ok that's more of a fundamental strategy decision than a comment on the actual hand.

As played I agree with what others have said. Protection is obviously the only argument I can see for raising but the EV you gain by denying them the equity that they would fold isn't enough to justify a raise imo. It just seems like you're wading into that murky territory between value betting and bluffing and that is rarely a good idea. And that is even more the case OTT. You gotta be polar.

Yeah that's pretty gross. I think you played it fine though. River is obviously far far better for villains range. I'm guessing since you 3bet this you are playing a merged pure 3bet strat from the SB so I guess you'll have a tiny bit of 7x (A7s, 87s, (maybe 79s??)) But check 100% on the river has to be right. Then when he shoves you obviously have to call some hands without a 7 but I wouldnt choose this one since it so heavily blocks his broadway FD combos that end up here. I'd choose hands like A8s 88, 99, TT first and Im guessing that's more than enough.

Side note: I think you should be making it a little bigger pre and the turn bet seems worth discussing to me. Do you really value bet overpairs on this turn? Neither of you have much 4x but he should have a little more I think. Seems close to me but I could be totally wrong.

Your assumption that he's only calling OTR with 3 combos of 88 and 3 combos of JTs is extremely ambitious. villain can have AQ and even some AK if he's really nit. He can also totally have offsuit combos of JT.

Even if he is calling only 6 combos OTR, at this point a nitty players range will be so condensed that 6 combos is probably a huge portion of his range. It seems like you are shoving river to get him to fold Ax hands up to AJ and trying to get players at 10nl to fold top pair is not how you're going to win.

I'm fine with preflop flop and turn so long as you aren't 3betting every time.