Jonathan Davis

I mean if we had a weaker version of our hand I might start to agree. Even then I think its close if we had AhKhJd3s. I think the fact that getting 4 bet sucks is a pretty terrible reason for not 3 betting, either we have two basic assumptions, he will 4 bet light and we actually can call a 4 bet pre or he 4 bets very rarely compared to how much hes opening maybe 5% of the time where as the other 95% he calls/folds. Its not that I think its a slam dunk 3 bet its that I can't see how flatting is even close to the EV of a 3 bet.

The reasons you gave are very slight cons to a hand with many pros esp deep. I would argue that being deep is more of a reason to 3 bet than call as well. This is not even considering the fact that we have to worry about the BB. 

We are also pushing a very reasonable preflop edge with roughly 55-58% against his range depending on how wide it is.  

Also i think the board coverage argument is a flawed concept to base your 3 betting ranges on, since we ultimately end up checking most if not all of our range on low/mid textures so adding weak hands for board coverage and not 3 betting hands like AsBsBBx this is really not optimal esp deep.

I don't really get your logic or lack there of for just calling pre, we want to 3 bet a fairly wide range for value/playability and this is very close to the top.

As played, snap call turn decide on blank rivers if you want to call again, but never folding turn ever. C/c on the flop is good/optimal imo.

Massively disagree that villain played this hand well in regards to the turn. His action almost forced mid set to fold and hero probably checks back a lot of hands with 30-40% equity that he misses value from. I see zero reason to c/r twice besides the really terrible reason of rivers are hard to play when he gets called because almost every river changes the effective nuts. Not no mention this is a turn where barring draws, hero will rarely ever bet, so why would we check with a polarized range in villains spot? Seems so terrible compared to betting.

Disagree with some of the analysis on the KT28cc, villain can easily have sets and overpairs with hearts or clubs, if hes competent so your plan has a pretty big flaw in that, when you do call on blanks, he should be fairly balanced with value bets and not just missed draws. Theres absolutely no reason why villain cant have KK with hearts or clubs, same with aces. 

Nice video regardless, really appreciate that you took such a humble attitude towards villain and the match, I can't really say the same for villain sadly.

I definitely agree that pre is a fold that most players don't make. Cold calling 3 bets in general for PLO is not +EV, given we are stuck in the middle both preflop and post.

Turn is interesting and I think there are plenty of options. I don't like c/ring unless villains are going to bet here a lot with air, I feel most villains will check the majority of their range. As said we are most likely to have a boat in our range and we definitely should hit this flop very hard given our cold call of the 3 bet preflop. I most likely c/f river unless villain views your turn range very weak and wide which makes me lean towards call instead of raise given there should not be many if any better hands turned into a bluff.

Agree with Phil, pre could be good or definitely -EV. Depends completely on the stealing range of the CO, how wide it is as well as how wide the SB's 3 bet % is. Against some I really like a 4 bet especially if it generates preflop fold equity, our hand plays great vs a 5 betting range from either player and we generally play a pot HU with some FE post where as if we flat we have worst relative position and no FE where our hand does not play the best MW especially if CO's range is somewhat wide.

Not a fan our turn sizing given how that card should interact with his range as the pfr c-betting that flop. That card should add lots of equity to his range and I expect him to c/cing here quite often, we gain no real value by making our sizing smaller given I expect his turn c/c range here to be fairly inelastic. I would bet around 23-26 dollars and expect a much higher return than half pot.

I like river a lot and I agree he rarely has JT here if ever and we have the effective nuts besides the times he decided to c/c AA on the turn which I feel is a mistake against most player types at this level. I think your sizing coudl be slightly larger around 22 but a small bet overall on the river is best and checking back against this villain would be a crime given how much value our hand has against his range.

I think this is one of the most interesting spots in PLO just like any spot where the board is essentially locked down as the PFR in a 3 bet pot OOP. I find that c-betting a wide polarized range is very ineffective against either thinking opponents or just aggressive opponents in general. Our range is just too weak and this can be exploited quite easily. Where as when we check, we can rep a more credible range that is not mainly air since flushes are a low % of our range in general. Like anything else in poker, its extremely opponent dependent. Overall people assume most players bet a very weak wide range here with few strong hands and mostly air, so when we check and continue, our range is viewed as strong and more credible.